Try the model
HOU

Houston 24 at UConn 17

CONN
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:07 · Luke Magliozzi punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 36 , Bryson Smith returns for no gain to the Houst 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior−44.1Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 4:48: Clayton Harris 43 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +9.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:31: Jeremy Singleton 58 Yd pass from Logan Holgorsen (Dalton Witherspoon Kick) — HOU win probability +13.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:19: Bryson Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +6.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:40: Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Harris KICK) — CONN win probability +17.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:40: Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the UConn 34 — HOU win probability +9.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:07CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:44HOU 4th & 17 at CONN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:44CONN 4th & 17 at HOU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:17HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:39HOU 4th & 17 at HOU 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:23CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:09HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:50HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:48CONN 4th & 4 at HOU 25, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−10.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:31CONN 4th & 2 at HOU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−11.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:12CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:33CONN 4th & 7 at HOU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−11.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:39HOU 4th & 3 at CONN 30, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:41CONN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:23HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:31HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:19HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:40CONN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
5.7%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
5.7%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-1
5.7%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
5.7%
Dane Roy punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
6.3%
Kevin Mensah run for 2 yds to the UConn 12Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
6.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
6.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
6.3%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 36 , Bryson Smith returns for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:3794% → 93%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
6.5%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Bryson Smith for 1 yd to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+45
6.5%
Bryson Smith pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 45 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
6.4%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the UConn 17Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
6.4%
Logan Holgorsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 9
OPP 17
-8
6.5%
Logan Holgorsen sacked by Kevon Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the UConn 25Similar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
7.4%
Dalton Witherspoon 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
7.3%
Art Thompkins run for 21 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
7.5%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Cameron RossSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
7.4%
Art Thompkins run for 9 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
7.5%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
7.5%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 11 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.6%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-10
7.5%
ZERGIOTIS, Jack pass complete to HAIRSTON, Camer for 28 yards to the HOU5, out-of-bounds (WILLIAMS, Damar), PENALTY UCONN holding (VAN DEMARK, Rya) 10 yards to the HOU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+3
7.4%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 17
OPP 40
0
7.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Cameron RossSimilar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 17
OPP 40
0
7.3%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 38 yds, downed at the Houst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
9.0%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+7
9.0%
Bryson Smith run for 7 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
8.9%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Kyle Porter for 8 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
8.8%
Logan Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-1
9.0%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
9.1%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds , Quayvon Skanes returns for no gain to the UConn 29 Quayvon Skanes fumbled, recovered by UConn Quayvon SkanesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 4:1210% → 15%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
9.8%
Kevin Mensah run for 4 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
9.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Jayce Medlock for 6 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
9.9%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the UConn 40Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+14
9.9%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Ardell Brown for 14 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
10.3%
Art Thompkins run for 8 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+21
11.7%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 21 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
11.9%
Kevin Mensah run for no gain to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
14.5%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Matt Drayton for 17 yds for a TD, (Clayton Harris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:0287% → 85%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.5%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
13.4%
HOLGORSEN, Loga pass incomplete to STEVENSON, Marq, PENALTY UCONN holding (SWENSON, Ian) 10 yards to the HOU38, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.1%
Logan Holgorsen pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
13.1%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-9
13.7%
Logan Holgorsen sacked by Lwal Uguak and Ian Swenson for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
14.7%
Dane Roy punt for 50 yds, downed at the UConn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8INT
12 plays · 38 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
14.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Jay Rose, broken up by David AnenihSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
14.7%
Kevin Mensah run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 18Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+16
14.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 16 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
14.9%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-7
15.1%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 7 yards to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+20
14.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 20 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
15.7%
Kevin Mensah run for 5 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+5
15.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 5 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
15.8%
Kevin Mensah run for 9 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-5
15.9%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (Matt Peart) to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-6
15.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+38
15.0%
Jack Zergiotis pass intercepted Donavan Mutin return for 38 yds to the UConn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:4382% → 87%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
17.7%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Kyle Porter for 3 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+15
17.5%
HOLGORSEN, Loga pass incomplete to STEVENSON, Marq, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (OLANIYAN, Abiol) 15 yards to the UCONN12, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
13.2%
Kyle Porter run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
15.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 12 yds to the UConn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.5%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Matt DraytonSimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
15.8%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
16.0%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 4 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
15.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.7%
Logan Holgorsen pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Oneil RobinsonSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+25
15.9%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Kyle Porter for 25 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
14.5%
Logan Holgorsen pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
14.8%
HOLGORSEN, Loga pass incomplete to BRADLEY, Tre'vo, PENALTY HOU illegal forward pass (HOLGORSEN, Loga) 1 yards to the HOU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
15.5%
Logan Holgorsen pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
16.5%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quayvon Skanes at the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
16.7%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the UConn 16Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
16.5%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
18.3%
Kevin Mensah run for 3 yds to the UConn 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+10
18.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 10 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
18.6%
Kevin Mensah run for 11 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
19.3%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
20.1%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Cameron RossSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+1
18.5%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 1 yd to the UConn 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+1
18.0%
Luke Magliozzi punt , Bryson Smith returns for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
19.4%
Bryson Smith pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 10 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
18.3%
Bryson Smith run for 2 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
18.3%
Logan Holgorsen sacked by Omar Fortt and Travis Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
20.3%
Logan Holgorsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
21.1%
Dane Roy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cameron Ross at the UConn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:5222% → 34%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
21.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 26 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
24.1%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 44Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+6
22.5%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Elijah Jeffreys for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 6
50
+6
23.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 6 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
24.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Elijah Jeffreys for 13 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
25.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Jay RoseSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
25.7%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 6 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
24.5%
Jack Zergiotis run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
34.2%
Clayton Harris 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1770% → 86%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
29.6%
Marquez Stevenson run for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
27.7%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+58
14.4%
Jeremy Singleton 58 Yd pass from Logan Holgorsen (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+58
19.1%
Kevin Mensah run for 58 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.5%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Houst 4Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.5%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Kevin MensahSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.0%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
19.5%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Houst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2483% → 81%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
17.2%
Bryson Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+18
17.4%
Kyle Porter run for 18 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
16.8%
Bryson Smith run for 5 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
16.1%
Bryson Smith pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-10
16.8%
HOLGORSEN, Loga pass complete to PORTER, Kyle for 6 yards to the HOU34 (HARRIS, Dillon), PENALTY HOU holding (FREEMAN, Jack) 10 yards to the HOU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 18
0
17.9%
Logan Holgorsen pass incomplete to Kyle PorterSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 18
0
18.6%
Dane Roy punt for 56 yds, downed at the UConn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:3919% → 21%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
18.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Ardell BrownSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
18.4%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 4 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+7
18.0%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Ross for 7 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Cameron RossSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
19.1%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
19.7%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 5 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
19.3%
Jack Zergiotis run for 2 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
21.2%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Jayce MedlockSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+27
20.9%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Ardell Brown for 27 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
23.5%
Kevin Mensah run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
23.4%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Art ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+3
21.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Jay Rose for 3 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
20.6%
Clayton Harris 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 6:1485% → 98%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
15.0%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+11
14.9%
Chandler Smith run for 11 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
14.4%
Bryson Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
13.2%
Chandler Smith run for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
13.2%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
12.8%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+16
12.7%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 16 yds Marquez Stevenson fumbled, forced by Oneil Robinson, recovered by Houst Tre'von Bradley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
12.0%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
11.9%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+20
12.4%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Courtney Lark for 11 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, roughing passer (Travis Jones) to the UConn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
11.9%
Bryson Smith run for 3 yds to the UConn 6Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
11.9%
Bryson Smith run for 1 yd to the UConn 5Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
8.7%
PORTER, Kyle rush for 2 yards to the UCONN3 (MITCHELL, Jacks;ROBINSON, Oneil), PENALTY UCONN offside (THOMAS, Caleb) 3 yards to the UCONN2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.3%
Bryson Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 1:393% → 21%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Cameron Ross, broken up by Payton TurnerSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+27
2.8%
Jack Zergiotis run for 27 yds to the UCONN 36 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
3.1%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Jay Rose for 14 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
3.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Matt Drayton for 4 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+11
3.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Ardell Brown for 11 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
3.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Ardell Brown, broken up by Gervarrius OwensSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
3.1%
Jack Zergiotis pass incomplete to Matt Drayton, broken up by Payton TurnerSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
20.9%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Harris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 9 yds · 1:0195% → 96%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
4.7%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
4.1%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the UConn 33Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+3
4.4%
Bryson Smith run for 3 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+4
4.9%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the UConn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
3.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:40
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Harris KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q3 3:31
Jeremy Singleton 58 Yd pass from Logan Holgorsen (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)
-13.3
FG · Q3 4:48
Clayton Harris 43 yd FG GOOD
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com