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TLSA

Tulsa 13 at Cincinnati 24

CIN
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.9CIN 80.3%Jacob Rainey 24 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 17 · Q3 3:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:29 · Jacob Rainey 24 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+12.7Home team on offense+6.2Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: T.K. Wilkerson 3 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick) — TLSA win probability +8.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:33: Gerrid Doaks 28 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Sam Crosa Kick) — CIN win probability +7.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:12: Jacob Rainey 21 Yd Field Goal — TLSA win probability +7.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:05: Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11 — TLSA win probability +8.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:37: Gerrid Doaks 27 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick) — CIN win probability +16.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:50CIN 4th & 8 at TLSA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:13CIN 4th & 4 at TLSA 14, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:23CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:18TLSA 4th & 8 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:31CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:59CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:26TLSA 4th & 11 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:29TLSA 4th & 7 at CIN 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:19CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:12TLSA 4th & 4 at CIN 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:11CIN 4th & 3 at TLSA 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−1.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−17.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:49CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:17TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:33CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:37CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4214% → 15%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
86.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+8
85.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
85.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 11 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
85.7%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 15
OWN 46
-5
85.5%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
85.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 20
OWN 41
-6
85.4%
Zach Smith sacked by Marcus Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 35 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Cincy Marcus Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0886% → 85%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
85.6%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
85.5%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
85.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
85.3%
Cole Smith 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:0015% → 15%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
85.2%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+4
85.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+3
85.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-6
84.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Myjai Sanders and Elijah Ponder for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 14
OWN 15
+13
85.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 47 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 13 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4185% → 86%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
85.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 23 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
85.0%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
84.8%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+5
84.7%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
84.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+3
84.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.9%
Gerrid Doaks 4 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0615% → 16%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
84.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
84.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
84.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
84.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
84.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+29
84.4%
Zach Smith run for 7 yds to the Cincy 31 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Cincy CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (22 Yards) to the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0785% → 85%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+49
85.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 49 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
85.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
85.6%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+2
85.4%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
84.8%
Sam Crosa 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jaxon PlayerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7INT
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:2815% → 16%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
84.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
84.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+11
84.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 11 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
84.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
84.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
84.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
50
0
83.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
50
+5
83.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
84.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 8 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
83.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+11
83.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 11 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.1%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
83.3%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
83.6%
Zach Smith pass intercepted, touchback. Ja'von Hicks return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0284% → 84%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
84.2%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
84.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 7 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
84.2%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
84.2%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
83.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
83.6%
James Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0016% → 16%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
84.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 1 yd to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
84.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+18
84.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
83.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 8
50
0
83.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Shamari BrooksSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 8
50
+20
84.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 41 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 20 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:4184% → 84%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-17
84.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-17 Yards) to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 24
OWN 15
0
84.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 24
OWN 15
+5
84.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+21
83.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 21 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
85.1%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+3
84.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
84.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
83.5%
James Smith punt for 57 yds, downed at the Tulsa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 5:0615% → 27%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
84.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
84.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+12
85.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
84.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
84.2%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Paul) to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+7
84.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 7 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-5
84.7%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+5
85.0%
Zach Smith run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Zach SmithSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
83.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
83.3%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+27
82.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 27 yds Josh Johnson fumbled, forced by Arquon Bush, recovered by TulsaSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.2%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Cincy 2Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.4%
T.K. Wilkerson 3 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
78.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5677% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
77.4%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
78.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
77.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+4
76.4%
James Smith punt for 57 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 4 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1723% → 22%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-10
76.2%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
76.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
77.6%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:4277% → 87%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
77.4%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+23
78.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
79.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
79.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+6
78.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
79.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+3
79.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
79.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+28
86.7%
Gerrid Doaks 28 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 4:0014% → 13%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
85.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
86.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Malik Vann) to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
85.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
84.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
84.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
84.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
84.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-5
84.5%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 11
50
+5
85.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 6
OPP 45
-5
86.1%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 11
50
+10
87.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 42 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 10 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
87.1%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 8 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Shemarr Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4917% → 20%
Q3 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
83.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 7Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
84.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
80.3%
Jacob Rainey 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:4684% → 86%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
84.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 8 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 2
OWN 34
0
84.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
84.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
85.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
86.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
85.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Malick MbodjSimilar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+49
85.9%
James Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the CINCINNATI 17 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (9 Yards) to the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG
14 plays · 88 yds · 3:5416% → 25%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
84.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+13
84.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
83.9%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
83.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+16
84.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 16 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
82.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 11 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
80.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cam Jefferies) to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+40
80.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 40 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
81.0%
Zach Smith sacked by Jarell White for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 9 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
80.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
82.4%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
74.8%
Jacob Rainey 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21DOWNS
18 plays · 81 yds · 7:4978% → 88%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
77.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+6
77.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 6 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+5
76.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
78.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
79.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 4 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
78.0%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Zaven Collins for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+15
77.4%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
79.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
82.2%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
84.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
85.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
84.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+16
84.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 16 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
86.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
89.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+1
88.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+2
87.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2221% → 20%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
79.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+16
79.9%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Darrick Forrest return for 16 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
96.0%
Gerrid Doaks 27 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24FUMBLE
14 plays · 38 yds · 1:414% → 4%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
95.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
95.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+10
96.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (Arquon Bush) to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
95.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
95.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
95.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+11
95.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
94.7%
Zach Smith run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-4
95.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Myjai Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 41 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Cincy Bryan Wright , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3897% → 98%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
97.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
97.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
97.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 1
50
+5
97.4%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:37
Gerrid Doaks 27 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick)
+16.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:05
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11
-8.4
TD · Q2 0:17
T.K. Wilkerson 3 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com