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ECU

East Carolina 28 at UCF 41

UCF
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Andrew Osteen punt blocked by Leroy Henley blocked by Leroy Henley Jsi Hatfield return for 6 yds to the UCF 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+33.9Home team on offense+26.5Score differential+21.2Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Blowout margin+8.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:01: Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +1.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:41: Jake Verity 23 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +1.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:45: Holton Ahlers run for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +3.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:48: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 53 yds for a TD EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UCF win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:38: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 6 at UCF 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:30ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:02UCF 4th & 4 at ECU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:36ECU 4th & 8 at UCF 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:49ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:23ECU 4th & 26 at ECU 41, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:33UCF 4th & 4 at ECU 45, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ECU 4th & 11 at UCF 22, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 26, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:01UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 29, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:20ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:34UCF 4th & 8 at ECU 44, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:41ECU 4th & 6 at UCF 6, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 44, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:55ECU 4th & 10 at UCF 43, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:27UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 16, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:38UCF 4th & 7 at ECU 34, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:12UCF 4th & 16 at ECU 24, up 19
    Close callWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:09UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:30UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:02UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:49UCF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:23UCF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:01ECU Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:45ECU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:48UCF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:38ECU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.0%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J. (MAXWELL, Zamari), PENALTY UCF pass interference (GRANT, Richie) 15 yards to the ECU40, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
98.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+13
98.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 13 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
98.0%
Tay Williams run for 1 yd to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
98.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
98.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Tay GowanSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
98.0%
Jonn Young punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:0498% → 98%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
97.6%
UCF Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-4 Yards) to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
97.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 7 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+2
97.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+1
97.6%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
97.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 23 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
97.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+2
97.7%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+52
97.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 52 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
97.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for 5 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
97.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-1
97.5%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+8
97.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trace Christian for 8 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
97.5%
Jonn Young punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:4997% → 98%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
97.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 15 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
97.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 19 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
97.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
97.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 13 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
97.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 17 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.6%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.4%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY UCF pass interference (COLLIER, A.) 5 yards to the ECU30, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
97.4%
Trace Christian run for 6 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
97.3%
Trace Christian run for 7 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
97.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.4%
AHLERS, Holton pass complete to SNEAD, Tyler for 6 yards to the ECU49 (COLLIER, A.), PENALTY UCF offside defense (MORRIS-BRASH) 5 yards to the ECU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
97.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Zamari MaxwellSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
97.4%
Jonn Young punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 3:5397% → 98%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
97.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jake Brown) to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 15
OWN 5
0
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 15
OWN 5
-3
97.4%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 18
OWN 2
+10
97.3%
GABRIEL, Dillon pass incomplete to NIXON, Tre (McMILLIAN, Ja'Q), PENALTY ECU holding (McMILLIAN, Ja'Q) 10 yards to the UCF12, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
97.4%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+2
97.4%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 13 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
97.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (Tre Nixon) to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
97.4%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+13
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 13 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
97.5%
GABRIEL, Dillon pass incomplete to DAVIS, Gabriel (GORE, Colby), PENALTY ECU face mask (GORE, Colby) 15 yards to the ECU38, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.5%
Marlon Williams pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
97.5%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Kendall Futrell for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+11
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 11 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+32
98.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 32 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 2:262% → 3%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 20Similar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+20
98.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 20 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.0%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+14
98.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 14 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
97.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 26 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
97.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 10 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
97.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
97.8%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
97.3%
Jake Verity 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4797% → 98%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jireh Wilson) to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+28
97.4%
Otis Anderson run for 28 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
97.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 10 yds to the ECaro 32 UCF Penalty, personal foul (Tre Nixon) to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
97.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+4
97.5%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
97.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+33
97.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 33 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
97.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-1
97.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Jonn Young punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:0998% → 99%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+38
97.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 38 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
97.9%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
97.9%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+16
98.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 16 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.3%
Trace Christian run for 13 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.3%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 8
50
+2
99.3%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-5
99.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+10
99.3%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to PROEHL, Blake (GAINOUS, Derek), PENALTY UCF holding (GOWAN, Tay) 10 yards to the UCF43, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-16
99.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Anthony Montalvo for a loss of 16 yards to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 26
OWN 41
+10
99.4%
Jonn Young punt for 43 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 10 yds to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 12 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
99.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 5 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Bentavious Thompson for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 41 yds, downed at the ECaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 3:230% → 1%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
99.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 5Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+8
99.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 8 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+1
99.6%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
99.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 17Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+16
99.7%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to SNEAD, Tyler (ROBINSON, A.), PENALTY UCF PT (ROBINSON, A.) 16 yards to the ECU33, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+9
99.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
50
+29
99.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 29 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
99.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 4 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-1
99.6%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-4
99.7%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+40
99.4%
Jake Verity 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Bentavious Thompson for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
99.6%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.6%
Andrew Osteen punt blocked by Leroy Henley blocked by Leroy Henley Jsi Hatfield return for 6 yds to the UCF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.6%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis, broken up by Xavier SmithSimilar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+16
98.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Tyler Snead returns for 16 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Rowe Mellott) to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
98.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Demetrius Mauney for 7 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
98.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Zech Byrd for 2 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.3%
Jonn Young punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+33
98.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 33 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
98.7%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
98.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
98.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
98.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:082% → 3%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
98.5%
Trace Christian run for 12 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
98.4%
Trace Christian run for 9 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
98.4%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
98.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jeremy Lewis for 24 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
98.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for 6 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+20
98.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 20 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
98.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
98.2%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 6Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Tay GowanSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
97.0%
Jake Verity 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
98.2%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-6
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Kendall Futrell for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 33 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by ECaro Alex Turner , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:123% → 7%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Chris DeLoachSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
96.9%
Trace Christian run for no gain to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+13
97.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 13 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
93.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5796% → 98%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.8%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
95.9%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
95.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 13 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 53 yds for a TD EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23FUMBLE
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
97.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for 18 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
97.2%
Tyler Snead run for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 36 Tyler Snead fumbled, recovered by ECaro Tyler Snead , return for 3 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+3
97.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+18
97.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 18 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jeremy Lewis for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
97.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
97.0%
Trace Christian run for no gain to the UCF 35 Trace Christian fumbled, forced by Stephon Zayas, recovered by UCF Eric MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3098% → 99%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
98.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 8 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
98.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
98.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-1
98.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
97.4%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
97.4%
Demetrius Mauney run for 5 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-6
97.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Eric Mitchell for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Jonn Young punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
98.7%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 3
OWN 17
-1
98.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
98.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
98.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27INT
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
97.9%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to SNEAD, Tyler, QB hurry by MORRIS-BRASH, PENALTY ECU face mask (WILLIAMS, Tay) 15 yards to the ECU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+10
98.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 10 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+19
98.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 19 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
97.8%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Brendon Hayes and Kenny Turnier for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 20
OWN 34
0
98.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Demetrius MauneySimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 20
OWN 34
+38
98.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 38 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
97.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 10 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
97.4%
WILLIAMS, Tay rush for 6 yards to the UCF12 (COLLIER, A.), PENALTY ECU holding (DOYLE, Jack) 10 yards to the UCF28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+5
97.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tay Williams for 5 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+22
97.6%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted for a 1ST down Antwan Collier return for 7 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 28 for a 1ST down for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28DOWNS
16 plays · 48 yds · 5:2499% → 99%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
98.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
98.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
98.8%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
98.8%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+15
98.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 15 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
98.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+3
98.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+1
99.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+16
99.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 16 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
99.3%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 12
OPP 20
-5
99.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 17
OPP 25
0
99.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Jake HescockSimilar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 17
OPP 25
+1
99.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 16
OPP 24
0
99.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 0:561% → 3%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
98.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 11 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
98.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
50
+11
98.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 11 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+31
98.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 31 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Tay GowanSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0599% → 99%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
98.5%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (Darriel Mack Jr.) to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+3
98.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+2
98.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-2
98.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:45
Holton Ahlers run for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-3.7
TD · Q3 2:48
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 53 yds for a TD EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+2.6
TD · Q3 14:01
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com