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USF

South Florida 3 at Navy 35

NAVY
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:41 · Jordan McCloud pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior+15.0Home team on offense+15.5Score differential+5.3Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:50: Jamale Carothers run for 58 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:03: CJ Williams pass complete to OJ Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:43: Spencer Shrader 33 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +3.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:28: Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 29 — NAVY win probability +3.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:03: Malcolm Perry run for 21 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +2.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00USF 4th & 5 at USF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:48NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:48USF 4th & 15 at USF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:56USF 4th & 5 at USF 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50USF 4th & 10 at USF 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:03USF 4th & 15 at NAVY 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:43USF 4th & 5 at NAVY 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:41USF 4th & 5 at NAVY 27, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:33NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:17USF 4th & 13 at USF 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:03USF 4th & 3 at USF 32, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:00USF 4th & 16 at NAVY 16, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:01NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 26, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 3:56NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:50NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:03NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:03NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:50NAVY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
82.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
82.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 34 yds, downed at the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
82.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
82.1%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
82.0%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
82.0%
Owen White punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
81.4%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 21 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by SFla Jordan McCloud , return for 8 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+10
81.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 10 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
81.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
81.3%
McCLOUD, Jordan pass complete to PHILLIPS, J for no gain to the USF35 (TUITELE, Tama), PENALTY NAVY offside (SPRINGER, Jacob) 5 yards to the USF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+9
81.3%
Trevon Sands run for 9 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
81.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Marcus Norman) to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
81.4%
Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 15
OWN 44
-2
81.4%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Jacob Springer for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+2
81.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 2 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
81.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 3:5180% → 82%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
80.1%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+10
80.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+4
79.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
80.2%
CJ Williams run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
80.2%
CJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+3
80.0%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
80.2%
Myles Fells run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+67
81.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 67 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
81.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 9 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+1
81.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
81.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
81.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+3
81.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 3 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+12
81.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 46 yds , Garrett Winn returns for 12 yds to the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:0182% → 86%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
81.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+8
81.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 8 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+58
85.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 58 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
84.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
84.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
84.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+17
84.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 41 yds , Garrett Winn returns for 17 yds to the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:5386% → 93%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.0%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
85.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
85.7%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
86.1%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 7 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
86.1%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
86.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+6
86.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+5
85.9%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
92.9%
CJ Williams pass complete to OJ Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+5
91.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+1
91.4%
Trevon Sands run for 1 yd to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
91.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
91.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 5 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+20
91.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 20 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
91.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
91.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Trevon Sands, broken up by Diego FagotSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 10
OPP 43
-5
91.4%
SCHNEIDER, T punt 41 yards to the NAVY2, downed, PENALTY USF illegal formation 5 yards to the NAVY48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
91.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1594% → 94%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
93.5%
Tazh Maloy run for 7 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+4
93.6%
Tazh Maloy run for 4 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+37
94.0%
Malcolm Perry pass intercepted KJ Sails return for 22 yds to the Navy 42 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Greg Reaves) to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:038% → 10%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
91.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked by J'arius Warren for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+1
91.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+6
92.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 6 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
88.9%
Spencer Shrader 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
89.8%
NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Jackson Pittman) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.8%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
89.8%
Mychal Cooper run for 10 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
89.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.9%
Malcolm Perry pass intercepted Nick Roberts return for no gain to the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:2710% → 11%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
90.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
90.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 4 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
90.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
89.1%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Chelen Garnes return for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2491% → 91%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
91.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-5
90.8%
SHRADER, S kickoff 62 yards to the NAVY3, fair catch by WARREN, Chance, PENALTY USF offside (GRAY, T) 5 yards to the USF30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.4%
Tazh Maloy run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
90.5%
PERRY, Malcolm rush for 2 yards to the NAVY39 (LIVINGSTONE, K;SAILS, KJ), PENALTY NAVY illegal shift 5 yards to the NAVY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+2
90.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+6
90.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
90.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
90.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
90.5%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
90.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
90.8%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 39 Malcolm Perry fumbled, recovered by SFla Greg ReavesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
91.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
91.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+25
91.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 25 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
90.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 5 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
90.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 5
OPP 27
0
90.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5595% → 94%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
94.7%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
94.7%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
93.9%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+55
93.5%
Owen White punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the NAVY 22 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:267% → 5%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
93.0%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 11 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
93.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
92.6%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+11
93.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 11 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
92.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
92.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce Miller, broken up by Walter LittleSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
92.4%
Trevon Sands run for 10 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
92.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Jacob Springer for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-7
92.8%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Jacob Springer for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 38 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by SFla Marcus Norman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 24
OWN 38
+11
95.0%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 11 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 13
OWN 49
+7
95.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 34 yds , Garrett Winn returns for 7 yds to the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:2696% → 100%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
96.0%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Kendel Wright) to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+10
95.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
96.0%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
96.2%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Peter Nestrowitz) to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+6
96.0%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+10
97.0%
Nelson Smith run for 10 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
97.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (KJ Sails) to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
97.1%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
97.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 21 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+47
99.1%
Trent Schneider punt for 47 yds , Garrett Winn returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:55100% → 100%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.7%
CJ Williams run for 11 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.7%
CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+9
99.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 9 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
99.7%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+2
99.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-10
99.7%
PERRY, Malcolm rush for no gain to the USF39 (GREEN, Blake), PENALTY NAVY holding (NESTROWITZ, P) 10 yards to the USF49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 18
OPP 49
+18
99.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 18 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.7%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
Tazh Maloy run for 26 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+28
99.9%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Bryce Miller for 28 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Kirk Rygol pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Trevon Sands run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+24
99.9%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Jacob Mathis for 24 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
99.9%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Jacob Mathis for 10 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.9%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Kirk Rygol pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
99.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Mitchell Wilcox) to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-4
99.9%
Kirk Rygol sacked by Austin Talbert-Loving and Paul Carothers for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
99.9%
Spencer Shrader 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for no gain to the Navy 21 Perry Olsen fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Tyreek King-El run for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Owen White punt for 53 yds, downed at the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Kirk Rygol pass incomplete, broken up by Mike FlowersSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
100.0%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:03
CJ Williams pass complete to OJ Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 14:50
Jamale Carothers run for 58 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+4
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:28
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 29
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com