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NAVY

Navy 45 at Tulsa 17

TLSA
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-2.6TLSA 0.9%Bijan Nichols 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 38 - HOME 17 · Q4 3:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:47 · Bijan Nichols 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense−52.0Score differential−31.2Garbage-time factor−11.8Pregame prior+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:06: CJ Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +8.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:02: Nelson Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:11: Malcolm Perry run for 35 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +16.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:18: Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:54: Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 11 of 13NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:26TLSA 4th & 5 at NAVY 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:26NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:29TLSA 4th & 10 at NAVY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:29NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:23TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:56TLSA 4th & 9 at NAVY 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:13NAVY 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−2.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:59TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:02TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:56TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:10NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:19TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:10NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 47, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:02TLSA 4th & 20 at TLSA 7, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−3.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:54TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 17, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:11NAVY 4th & 2 at TLSA 42, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:47NAVY 4th & 5 at TLSA 20, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:41TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 19, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:07TLSA 4th & 3 at NAVY 24, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 0:09NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:06NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:02NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:11NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:18TLSA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:54NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:18TLSA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:12NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1956% → 56%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
56.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+1
56.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
56.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
56.4%
Jacob Rainey 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.2%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
56.2%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
56.3%
CJ Williams run for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
56.4%
Owen White punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:0657% → 57%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
56.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
56.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
56.7%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
56.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.0%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
56.9%
Zach Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+21
56.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 21 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
57.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
56.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh Johnson, broken up by Evan FochtmanSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
57.2%
Jacob Rainey 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.4%
Tazh Maloy run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
57.0%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
57.0%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
57.1%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
57.6%
Owen White punt for 48 yds, downed at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
57.5%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Gerard Wheeler) to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 15
OWN 5
-2
57.2%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 17
OWN 3
-1
57.2%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 18
OWN 2
0
57.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr. TULSA Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 18
OWN 2
+9
56.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 9 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 9
OWN 11
-5
56.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 14
OWN 6
0
56.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 42 yds, downed at the Tulsa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:2644% → 48%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
56.3%
CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
56.1%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
56.3%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
55.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+29
52.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 29 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 1:1354% → 52%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
53.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
54.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
55.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
55.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
53.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by Evan FochtmanSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+6
52.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 31 yds , Garrett Winn returns for 6 yds to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:3747% → 59%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
53.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 16 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
51.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
51.4%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
51.5%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+6
51.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+10
51.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
49.8%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+15
49.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
49.8%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
41.4%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
41.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+9
42.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
42.4%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
42.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
41.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+11
41.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 50 yds , Garrett Winn returns for 11 yds to the Navy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 1:1160% → 75%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+47
40.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 47 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
39.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
25.0%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Carter for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
32.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
32.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
31.3%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
31.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 42 yds, downed at the Navy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:3576% → 87%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
24.3%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+26
32.2%
CJ Williams pass complete to Jamale Carothers for 26 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
30.1%
Tazh Maloy run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
13.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 35 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
9.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Carter for 1 yd to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
9.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
9.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+9
8.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 39 yds , Garrett Winn returns for 9 yds to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
9.5%
CJ Williams run for 7 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
8.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
8.9%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
9.7%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:427% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh Johnson, broken up by Jacob SpringerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.7%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
6.7%
Zach Smith run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
7.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 22 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
7.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
8.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 13 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
8.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
8.1%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
7.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 11 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.7%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to CJ Williams, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
19.0%
CJ Williams run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
18.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 37 NAVY Penalty, illegal block (Myles Fells) to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 19
OWN 27
-5
18.7%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 24
OWN 22
0
18.9%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 24
OWN 22
+7
18.9%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+4
19.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
19.5%
Owen White punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
18.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
18.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
17.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
17.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 44 yds, downed at the Navy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5186% → 90%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
14.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
14.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
14.1%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
13.5%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
13.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
13.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
10.4%
Owen White punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
14.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
14.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+9
14.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 9 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
14.6%
Zach Smith sacked by Chelen Garnes and Diego Fagot for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+6
14.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 12
OWN 15
-8
14.3%
Zach Smith sacked by Deondrae Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 20
OWN 7
0
14.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Garrett Winn at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:4894% → 100%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
50
+2
5.8%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+10
5.6%
Tazh Maloy run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
5.6%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
5.6%
Tazh Maloy run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+28
5.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 28 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
0.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to James PalmerSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
0.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
0.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 33 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
50
0
0.5%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
50
+8
0.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
0.5%
CJ Williams run for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
0.4%
Owen White punt for 40 yds, downed at the Tulsa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 3:461% → 5%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
0.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+4
0.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+51
0.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 51 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
0.6%
Zach Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
0.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+6
0.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
0.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
0.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
0.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
0.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to James Palmer for 6 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
0.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to James Palmer, broken up by Elan NashSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
5.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to T.K. Wilkerson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
1.5%
Tazh Maloy run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
1.5%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
1.6%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+9
3.6%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to OJ Davis for 9 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
0.9%
Bijan Nichols 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
1.1%
Zach Smith sacked by Mike Flowers for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
1.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos Santana, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
1.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-2
1.0%
Zach Smith sacked by Paul Carothers for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:3799% → 100%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
0.6%
Perry Olsen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+19
0.2%
Jamale Carothers run for 19 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
0.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+28
0.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 28 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos Santana, broken up by Daniel TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
0.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 12 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
0.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh Johnson, broken up by David MillerSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
0.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Cannon MontgomerySimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+7
0.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 7 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 3
OPP 24
0
0.1%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:11
Malcolm Perry run for 35 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q3 12:18
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q2 6:02
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com