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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:22 · Luke Magliozzi punt for 39 yds , Amare Jones returns for 10 yds to the Tulan 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:55: Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 22 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:57: Mike Beaudry pass intercepted for a TD Macon Clark return for 20 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:40: Justin McMillan run for 14 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:22: Justin McMillan pass complete to Cameron Carroll for 2 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CONN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q1 14:01CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 8:44CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q1 6:36TULN 4th & 1 at CONN 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%70% to convertField goal96.5%−0.238% to makePunt96.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00CONN 4th & 4 at TULN 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%47% to convertField goal3.6%−0.166% to makePunt2.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 14:14TULN 4th & 3 at CONN 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.6%51% to convertField goal96.6%−0.181% to makePunt95.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 10:52CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 5:40CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 3:34TULN 4th & 17 at TULN 48, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q2 0:15CONN 4th & 1 at TULN 46, down 28Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%70% to convertField goal0.8%−<0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00CONN 4th & 8 at TULN 28, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.8%60% to makePunt0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 7:22CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:01CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 29, down 42Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00TULN 4th & 1 at CONN 21, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.174% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:45CONN 4th & 15 at CONN 16, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:51TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:55TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:57TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:40TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:22TULN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:07TULN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:43TULN Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:27CONN Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.1%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Art Thompkins for 6 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
98.1%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Jayce Medlock for 4 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-5
98.1%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, delay of game (Mike Beaudry) to the UConn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3TD5 plays · 88 yds · 1:3498% → 98%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
97.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 3 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+12
97.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 12 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
97.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 8 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+20
97.6%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Art Thompkins for 20 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
97.6%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Heron Maurisseau for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 28Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+25
97.7%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 54 yds , Amare Jones returns for 25 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5TD8 plays · 58 yds · 2:4198% → 98%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
97.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds to the TULANE 46 TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Will Wallace) to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.5%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell Mooney, broken up by Tyler CoyleSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
97.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 22 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6DOWNS11 plays · 50 yds · 3:503% → 3%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.5%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Jayce Medlock for 16 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
97.4%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Matt Drayton for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 38Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 13
OWN 38
-1
97.5%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Art Thompkins for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 37Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+22
97.5%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Jayce Medlock for 22 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7DOWNS8 plays · 59 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 6 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
97.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 7 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+39
97.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 39 yds to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-3
97.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 7 yds to the UConn 16 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UConn 26Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+10
97.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 10 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 3
OPP 16
0
97.3%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell Mooney, broken up by Tyler CoyleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:493% → 2%
CONNDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
TULNDrive 10TD10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0199% → 99%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-5
98.5%
Stephon Huderson run for 5 yds to the Tulan 49 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (Keyshawn McLeod) to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
98.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 12 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
98.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 16 yds to the UConn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TULNDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
99.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Will Wallace for 16 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-14
99.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 1 yd to the Tulan 44 TULANE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Tulan 41Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 23
OWN 42
+6
99.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 6 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.5%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Ardell Brown for 15 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.5%
Mike Beaudry pass complete to Matt Drayton for 9 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
99.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15DOWNS13 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Mike Beaudry pass incomplete to Cameron Ross, broken up by P.J. HallSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.4%
[Shotgun], BEAUDRY, Mike DC pass intercepted by MONROE, J. at the UCONN45, MONROE, J. return to the UCONN30, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TLN pass interference (BROOKS, L.) 6 yards to the UCONN41, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+3
99.3%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Art Thompkins for 3 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16TD6 plays · 72 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
CONNDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 39 yds , Amare Jones returns for 10 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD9 plays · 59 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
99.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 7 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
99.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tyrek Presley for 19 yds to the UConn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TULNDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 56 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
CONNDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
99.9%
Jack Zergiotis sacked by Corey Dauphine for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 15 Jack Zergiotis fumbled, recovered by UConn Ryan Van Demark , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 15
OWN 16
+42
99.9%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds , Jacob Robertson Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22TD10 plays · 59 yds · 4:29100% → 100%
Q4 11:12
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Dane Ledford for 4 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+19
99.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tyrek Presley for 19 yds to the UConn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
100.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 14 yds for a TD, (Sterling Stockwell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:160% → 0%
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
100.0%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Heron Maurisseau for 8 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+16
100.0%
Dante Black run for 1 yd to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jacquez Norman) to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
100.0%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Elijah Jeffreys for 6 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Cameron Hairston for 16 yds for a TD, (Clayton Harris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24END OF GAME7 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+28
100.0%
Christian Daniels run for 13 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Keyshawn Paul) to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:57
Mike Beaudry pass intercepted for a TD Macon Clark return for 20 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 5:40
Justin McMillan run for 14 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q1 3:55
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 22 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+0.2