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CIN

Cincinnati 38 at Houston 23

HOU
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:31 · James Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior−20.1Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:40: Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 69 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +12.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:41: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +11.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:09: Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — HOU win probability +16.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FG · Q4 4:27: Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +12.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:28: Clayton Tune pass intercepted for a TD Perry Young return for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +9.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 10:47HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:24HOU 4th & 4 at CIN 14, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:13HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:29HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 10, up 11
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:36CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:33HOU 4th & 8 at CIN 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:20CIN 4th & 6 at HOU 48, up 11
    Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:40CIN 4th & 7 at HOU 37, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−0.7
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:09HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:38CIN 4th & 10 at HOU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−10.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:27CIN 4th & 3 at HOU 15, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%−1.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−14.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:43HOU 4th & 6 at CIN 45, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:04HOU 4th & 5 at CIN 21, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:44CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:13CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:36HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:33CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:40HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:41CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:09HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:28CIN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1673% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+44
26.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 44 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
26.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
26.9%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
27.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:5727% → 28%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
27.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+14
27.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 14 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
27.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Patrick CarrSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
27.4%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
27.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside (Elijah Ponder) to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-2
27.8%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+9
27.5%
Dane Roy punt for 48 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 9 yds to the HOUSTON 49 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
27.7%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+4
27.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
27.6%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Damarion Williams return for 11 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3228% → 30%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
28.4%
Bryson Smith run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
28.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 2 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
28.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Arquon BushSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
29.6%
Dalton Witherspoon 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
27.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 75 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
27.3%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
27.3%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
26.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete, broken up by Myjai SandersSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
26.8%
Dane Roy punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
27.2%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+10
27.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Trent Cloud for 10 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
27.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
27.1%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
27.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
27.5%
James Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
26.8%
Bryson Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
26.9%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 3
50
-5
27.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Keenan Murphy) to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
26.5%
Logan Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
26.2%
Dane Roy punt for 53 yds, downed at the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3473% → 73%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
27.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+4
27.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 1
OWN 11
-1
27.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+3
27.2%
James Smith punt for 59 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 3 yds to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 3:1327% → 34%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
26.6%
Clayton Tune sacked by Myjai Sanders for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+14
26.2%
Logan Holgorsen run for 14 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+3
26.9%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
27.2%
Terrell Brown run for 3 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
27.3%
Bryson Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 4
50
+50
33.9%
Bryson Smith pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 50 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
30.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Malick MbodjSimilar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-6
31.6%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Isaiah Chambers and Olivier Charles-Pierre for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
33.0%
James Smith punt for 44 yds , Bryson Smith returns for no gain to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
33.0%
Logan Holgorsen pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:2870% → 76%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
29.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 12 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
29.7%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
23.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 15 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
25.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 37 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
26.9%
Terrell Brown run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
26.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
26.6%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
25.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
23.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 9 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-5
23.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Malick Mbodj) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
23.6%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
23.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 8 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
23.5%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
23.7%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
23.7%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
24.1%
James Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16INT
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
22.2%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+20
22.7%
Patrick Carr run for 20 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.3%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+35
23.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 35 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
25.9%
TUNE, Clayton overthrow pass incomplete to BRADLEY, Tre'vo, PENALTY HOU holding (WOOTEN III, Dix) 10 yards to the CIN40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
24.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 20
OPP 40
-5
24.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 25
OPP 45
0
24.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 25
OPP 45
+22
23.4%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for 22 yds to the Cincy 23 HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:2023% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
22.8%
Bryson Smith run for 6 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
23.2%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
23.2%
Terrell Brown run for 5 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+69
35.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 69 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
31.6%
RIDDER, Desmond overthrow pass incomplete to MEDARIS, Rashad, PENALTY HOU pass interference (VAUGHN, Garriso) 15 yards to the HOU40, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
31.2%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the Houst 33 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Josiah Deguara) to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 13
OPP 43
-5
31.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Lorenz Metz) to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 18
OPP 48
0
31.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Trent CloudSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+1
32.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+15
33.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 15 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-5
33.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Lorenz Metz) to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
33.3%
James Smith punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
35.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 6Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 15
OWN 6
0
34.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 15
OWN 6
+11
33.4%
Bryson Smith run for 11 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+2
33.2%
Dane Roy punt for 54 yds , Tre Tucker returns for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:0166% → 67%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
34.1%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
33.9%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+36
35.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 36 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
30.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 10 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
30.5%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-6
30.5%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
32.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah Deguara, broken up by Garrison VaughnSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
33.3%
Sam Crosa 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Logan Hall N/A return for no gain to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
34.3%
Kyle Porter run for 9 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
36.9%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
34.9%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
34.6%
Terrell Brown run for 2 yds to the Houst 34 Terrell Brown fumbled, forced by Joel Dublanko, recovered by Cincy Ja'von Hicks , return for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:4374% → 85%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
26.5%
Michael Warren II run for 13 yds to the Houst 21 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Malick Mbodj) to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 7
OPP 31
-4
26.1%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-7
26.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+28
30.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 14 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Amaud Willis-Dalton) to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
25.6%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
25.6%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
14.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:3217% → 38%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
17.0%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
18.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy Singleton, broken up by Curtis BrooksSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+33
17.0%
Kyle Porter run for 33 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
20.9%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
21.2%
Terrell Brown run for no gain to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+4
19.6%
BROWN, Terrell rush up middle for loss of 4 yards to the CIN30 (BROWN, Marcus;SANDERS, Myjai), PENALTY CIN substitution infraction 4 yards to the CIN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+11
19.8%
Kyle Porter run for 11 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
21.2%
Terrell Brown run for 5 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
21.2%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
37.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 4:4276% → 91%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
23.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-5
25.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Jakari Robinson) to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+11
25.3%
Michael Warren II run for 11 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
23.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by Gervarrius OwensSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+23
24.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 13 yds to the HOUSTON 49 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive holding (Grant Stuard) to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
21.7%
RIDDER, Desmond overthrow pass incomplete to DEGUARA, Josiah, PENALTY CIN illegal shift 5 yards to the HOU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+4
22.2%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
21.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+18
22.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 18 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
20.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+1
20.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Houst 15Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
21.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad Medaris, broken up by Garrison VaughnSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
9.3%
Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5913% → 3%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
13.0%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
12.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+2
3.3%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted for a TD Perry Young return for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26INT
17 plays · 65 yds · 2:544% → 3%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
3.5%
TUNE, Clayton overthrow pass incomplete to SINGLETON, Jere, PENALTY CIN pass interference (BRYANT, Coby) 15 yards to the HOU34, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
3.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 17 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
3.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-10
4.3%
TUNE, Clayton middle pass complete to STEVENSON, Marq for no gain to the CIN40 (BUSH, Arquon), PENALTY HOU holding (TRAHAN, Christi) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 11
50
+5
3.8%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+19
2.6%
Kyle Porter run for 19 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
3.3%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
3.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Malik VannSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
3.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+5
2.7%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
2.9%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted, touchback. Coby Bryant return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
1.4%
N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:09
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+16.4
FG · Q4 4:27
Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOOD
-12.3
TD · Q3 12:40
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 69 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com