2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreCIN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · N/A
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 12:40: Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 69 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +12.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:41: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +11.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:09: Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — HOU win probability +16.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- FG · Q4 4:27: Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +12.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:28: Clayton Tune pass intercepted for a TD Perry Young return for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +9.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 10:47HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it28.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.5%average punt
- Q1 7:24HOU 4th & 4 at CIN 14, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snapGo for it29.1%46% to convertField goalTheir call29.1%−<0.184% to makePunt27.8%−1.3average punt
- Q1 7:13HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it27.8%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.1%average punt
- Q1 5:31CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 19, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it71.3%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.7%average punt
- Q1 3:29HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 45, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snapGo for it27.6%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 10, up 11Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snapGo for it72.2%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:36CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 26, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snapGo for it65.3%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.3%average punt
- Q2 8:33HOU 4th & 8 at CIN 36, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.4%34% to convertField goal26.3%−0.142% to makePunt26.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:20CIN 4th & 6 at HOU 48, up 11Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snapGo for it74.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 12:40CIN 4th & 7 at HOU 37, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it66.6%37% to convertField goal65.9%−0.740% to makePuntTheir call65.6%−1.0average punt
- Q3 10:09HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 17, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.8%−0.247% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%average punt
- Q3 4:38CIN 4th & 10 at HOU 21, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snapGo for it63.4%−2.328% to convertField goalTheir call65.7%74% to makePunt54.8%−10.9average punt
- Q4 4:27CIN 4th & 3 at HOU 15, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snapGo for it80.9%51% to convertField goalTheir call79.6%−1.383% to makePunt66.1%−14.8average punt
- Q4 1:43HOU 4th & 6 at CIN 45, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%40% to convertField goal2.5%−0.225% to makePunt2.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:04HOU 4th & 5 at CIN 21, down 15Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%−0.340% to convertField goal3.1%74% to makePunt2.0%−1.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:44CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.5%97% to makeGo for two71.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:13CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.6%97% to makeGo for two71.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:36HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.2%97% to makeGo for two33.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:33CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.9%97% to makeGo for two73.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:40HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.8%97% to makeGo for two31.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:41CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:09HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick29.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call28.6%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:28CIN Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCINDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1673% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+44
26.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 44 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
26.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 1:5727% → 28%
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+14
27.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 14 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
27.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside (Elijah Ponder) to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+9
27.5%
Dane Roy punt for 48 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 9 yds to the HOUSTON 49 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3INT3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
27.6%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Damarion Williams return for 11 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3228% → 30%
CINDrive 5TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
27.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 75 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
HOUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3473% → 73%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+3
27.2%
James Smith punt for 59 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 3 yds to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD6 plays · 66 yds · 3:1327% → 34%
CINDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-6
31.6%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Isaiah Chambers and Olivier Charles-Pierre for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
33.0%
James Smith punt for 44 yds , Bryson Smith returns for no gain to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
33.0%
Logan Holgorsen pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD3 plays · 35 yds · 1:2870% → 76%
HOUDrive 14DOWNS6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
25.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 37 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
23.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 9 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
23.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 8 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
24.1%
James Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16INT9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+35
23.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 35 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
25.9%
TUNE, Clayton overthrow pass incomplete to BRADLEY, Tre'vo, PENALTY HOU holding (WOOTEN III, Dix) 10 yards to the CIN40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 25
OPP 45
+22
23.4%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for 22 yds to the Cincy 23 HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD5 plays · 85 yds · 2:2023% → 35%
Q3 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+69
35.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 69 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
31.6%
RIDDER, Desmond overthrow pass incomplete to MEDARIS, Rashad, PENALTY HOU pass interference (VAUGHN, Garriso) 15 yards to the HOU40, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
31.2%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the Houst 33 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Josiah Deguara) to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+15
33.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 15 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
33.3%
James Smith punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
CINDrive 20MISSED FG9 plays · 48 yds · 4:0166% → 67%
Q3 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+36
35.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 36 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
30.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 10 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
32.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah Deguara, broken up by Garrison VaughnSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
33.3%
Sam Crosa 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Logan Hall N/A return for no gain to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21FUMBLE4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
34.6%
Terrell Brown run for 2 yds to the Houst 34 Terrell Brown fumbled, forced by Joel Dublanko, recovered by Cincy Ja'von Hicks , return for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD7 plays · 34 yds · 3:4374% → 85%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
26.5%
Michael Warren II run for 13 yds to the Houst 21 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Malick Mbodj) to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-7
26.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+28
30.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 14 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Amaud Willis-Dalton) to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
14.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD11 plays · 72 yds · 4:3217% → 38%
Q4 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
18.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy Singleton, broken up by Curtis BrooksSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+4
19.6%
BROWN, Terrell rush up middle for loss of 4 yards to the CIN30 (BROWN, Marcus;SANDERS, Myjai), PENALTY CIN substitution infraction 4 yards to the CIN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
37.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24FG14 plays · 48 yds · 4:4276% → 91%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-5
25.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Jakari Robinson) to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
23.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by Gervarrius OwensSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+23
24.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 13 yds to the HOUSTON 49 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive holding (Grant Stuard) to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
21.7%
RIDDER, Desmond overthrow pass incomplete to DEGUARA, Josiah, PENALTY CIN illegal shift 5 yards to the HOU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
21.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad Medaris, broken up by Garrison VaughnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25INT TD4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5913% → 3%
Q4 3:28
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+2
3.3%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted for a TD Perry Young return for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26INT17 plays · 65 yds · 2:544% → 3%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
3.5%
TUNE, Clayton overthrow pass incomplete to SINGLETON, Jere, PENALTY CIN pass interference (BRYANT, Coby) 15 yards to the HOU34, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
3.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 17 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
3.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-10
4.3%
TUNE, Clayton middle pass complete to STEVENSON, Marq for no gain to the CIN40 (BUSH, Arquon), PENALTY HOU holding (TRAHAN, Christi) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
3.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Malik VannSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
2.9%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted, touchback. Coby Bryant return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:09
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+16.4
FG · Q4 4:27
Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOOD
-12.3
TD · Q3 12:40
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 69 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+12