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TLSA

Tulsa 37 at SMU 43

SMU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:31 · Thomas Bennett punt for 48 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3Play 172Pregame prior+3.0Home team on offense−25.7Score differential−3.8Garbage-time factor−12.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 8:24: Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 30 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +24.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:02: Xavier Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +36.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +17.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Xavier Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +41.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT3 0:00: Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 25 yds for a TD — SMU win probability +34.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
  1. Q1 13:10SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53TLSA 4th & 3 at SMU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:15SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:16TLSA 4th & 11 at SMU 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:01SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:13SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:24SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:34SMU 4th & 15 at TLSA 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:12SMU 4th & 4 at TLSA 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:29SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 18, down 21
    Close callPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:31TLSA 4th & 3 at SMU 27, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:42SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:56SMU 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−9.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:25TLSA 4th & 5 at SMU 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:17SMU 4th & 1 at TLSA 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−2.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:31TLSA 4th & 8 at SMU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:25SMU 4th & 1 at TLSA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%−8.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−15.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:13SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:46TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:45TLSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:23TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:47TLSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:56SMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:24SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:02SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−4.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2080% → 79%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.6%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-6
79.5%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+10
79.3%
Xavier Jones run for 10 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
79.2%
Trevor Denbow punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5621% → 22%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
79.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
78.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
78.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 7
50
+4
78.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
78.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3779% → 78%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
78.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaxon Player) to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 5
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
78.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
78.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-3
78.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
78.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
77.9%
Trevor Denbow punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4INT TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:5422% → 21%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
78.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
77.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+12
77.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 12 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
77.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+64
78.8%
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Ar'mani Johnson return for 64 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:3621% → 22%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
78.7%
Zach Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
78.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+7
78.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
78.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+20
77.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
77.8%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
77.7%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
78.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
77.6%
Jacob Rainey 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:5978% → 76%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
77.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 13 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
77.9%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
78.0%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Hayden Howerton) to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-15
77.5%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 27
OWN 24
+11
76.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+10
76.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 10 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
76.3%
Shane Buechele punt for 37 yds, downed at the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7INT
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:3923% → 24%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+42
76.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 42 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
75.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
75.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+2
75.9%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Chevin Calloway return for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:4777% → 76%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
76.5%
Xavier Jones run for 12 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
76.5%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
76.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
75.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
75.6%
Trevor Denbow punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:1424% → 29%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
76.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
76.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
75.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
71.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 58 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
68.9%
Kendarin Ray 1 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Rainey PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1667% → 64%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
67.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+5
66.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+14
66.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 14 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.1%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
66.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
65.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
64.4%
Trevor Denbow punt for 55 yds, downed at the Tulsa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5834% → 35%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
66.5%
TULSA Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
65.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
65.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
65.4%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:4066% → 63%
Q2 9:14
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
65.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 26 yds, downed at the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
64.8%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+20
63.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 20 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
64.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
63.3%
Shane Buechele sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
61.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
62.8%
Kevin Robledo 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:5238% → 51%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
62.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+8
61.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+57
60.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 57 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.8%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:4152% → 51%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
52.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+10
52.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 10 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
52.6%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+16
52.2%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Cullen Wick) to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-11
51.7%
Shane Buechele sacked by Tyarise Stevenson for a loss of 11 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 21
OPP 22
0
50.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 21
OPP 22
+17
52.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 17 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 4
OPP 5
0
51.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tommy McIntyreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16INT
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:3948% → 60%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+16
52.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 16 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
45.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+29
44.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
42.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 33 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
39.6%
Zach Smith pass intercepted, touchback. Ar'mani Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
43.2%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
43.9%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5858% → 82%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
41.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+11
39.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
50
0
38.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
50
+5
38.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+5
36.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
35.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
18.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 40 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5125% → 24%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
25.2%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
25.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+2
24.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
23.8%
Trevor Denbow punt for 42 yds, downed at the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:4783% → 86%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+31
16.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 31 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
16.0%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
16.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-2
14.7%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+11
14.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 11 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
13.6%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete to Johnson, Keenen, PENALTY SMU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the SMU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 5
OPP 29
0
13.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
12.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
12.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
14.1%
Jacob Rainey 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
22 plays · 73 yds · 7:2417% → 23%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
16.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+9
16.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 9 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
17.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
16.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
13.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
13.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
12.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
12.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+17
11.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 17 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
12.5%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+5
11.5%
Shane Buechele run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
11.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+27
10.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 27 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
13.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
14.7%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
12.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Nick Dennis) to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
9.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 9 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 1:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.7%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (Robinson II, Reggie) 0 yards to the TULSA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q3 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.8%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:1483% → 89%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
17.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
13.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 7 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
13.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
12.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-4
11.9%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+9
11.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
10.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 2:5215% → 36%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
15.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 14 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
15.2%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+14
12.7%
Xavier Jones run for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
13.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Allie Green IV) to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
13.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
13.3%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
14.0%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+3
11.5%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
12.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+30
36.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 30 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3578% → 84%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
21.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+1
18.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
17.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-1
16.2%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-5
17.0%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
15.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 4:2423% → 66%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
22.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
21.9%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete, PENALTY SMU holding 10 yards to the SMU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
21.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+15
20.5%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (Robinson II, Reggie) 15 yards to the SMU25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
22.3%
Tyler Page pass complete to Rashee Rice for 30 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
27.9%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
28.8%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
28.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
30.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
29.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
27.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+8
25.3%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
26.3%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+2
27.0%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
27.7%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.6%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4551% → 48%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
48.6%
Zach Smith sacked by Turner Coxe for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
51.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+18
41.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 18 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
22.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
28.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+6
27.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
25.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+15
23.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 15 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29FUMBLE
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
64.7%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+9
64.7%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 9 Xavier Jones fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30MISSED FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 46%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
40.5%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 26Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
41.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
43.7%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
53.9%
Jacob Rainey 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 49%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SMU 24Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
40.5%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
OT3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
43.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
OT3 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
51.5%
Zack Long 42 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 32TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
85.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 25 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)
+41.4
TD · Q4 1:02
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)
+36.9
TD · OT3 0:00
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 25 yds for a TD
+34.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com