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UCF

UCF 24 at Cincinnati 27

CIN
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2019 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.6CIN 43.5%Sam Crosa 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 16 - HOME 13 · Q3 10:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:06 · Sam Crosa 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense−1.3Pregame prior−4.9Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:49: Trent Cloud 5 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Sam Crosa Kick) — CIN win probability +7.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:58: Greg McCrae 1 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick) — UCF win probability +13.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:08: Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted for a TD Ahmad Gardner return for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +18.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +18.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:11: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 45 yds for a TD, (Dillon Gabriel pass to Adrian Killins Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +18.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:46UCF 4th & 5 at CIN 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15CIN 4th & 12 at UCF 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:39UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:08CIN 4th & 7 at UCF 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:46UCF 4th & 5 at CIN 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:51CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:52UCF 4th & 11 at CIN 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:06CIN 4th & 7 at UCF 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−10.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:07UCF 4th & 21 at UCF 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−5.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:48CIN 4th & 18 at CIN 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−4.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:29UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−5.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:15CIN 4th & 10 at UCF 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:30UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:08CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:40UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−3.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:34CIN 4th & 10 at UCF 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:24UCF 4th & 19 at UCF 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:01CIN 4th & 9 at UCF 41, up 11
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:58CIN 4th & 1 at UCF 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.1%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 6:49CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:58UCF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:08CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:55CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:11UCF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 3:0462% → 61%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
38.4%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
38.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+10
38.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
38.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 11 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
38.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 4 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
38.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
38.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+10
38.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
38.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 18 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
38.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 7 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-5
38.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
38.9%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
39.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
39.1%
Dylan Barnas 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2339% → 39%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.5%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
39.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+2
39.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
39.4%
James Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3INT
17 plays · 76 yds · 5:0760% → 61%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
39.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-2
39.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 14 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by UCF Dillon GabrielSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
40.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+15
40.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
39.8%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
39.9%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+11
39.9%
Greg McCrae run for 11 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
39.6%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 7
50
+6
39.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
39.5%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
39.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+19
39.7%
Otis Anderson run for 19 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
39.4%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+10
39.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 10 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
39.8%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
39.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+57
39.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Cam Jefferies return for 57 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2642% → 40%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
41.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
41.7%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+2
40.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 2 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
40.3%
James Smith punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3259% → 59%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
41.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+30
41.4%
Greg McCrae run for 30 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
40.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 7 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
39.9%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
40.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+3
40.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:1841% → 45%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
41.0%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+26
41.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 26 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
42.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
43.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+8
43.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
44.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 10 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
44.3%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+1
44.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
43.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
45.2%
Sam Crosa 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 1:5858% → 59%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
41.8%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+7
41.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
41.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 19 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
41.0%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
41.1%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+10
41.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 10 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.2%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Cincy 5Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
40.8%
Dylan Barnas 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5142% → 41%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
41.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
41.4%
James Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
41.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 19 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by Cincy Michael PittsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:3146% → 52%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
45.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 12 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
44.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
44.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 1 yd to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.1%
Trent Cloud 5 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:4951% → 51%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+29
49.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 29 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
46.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 21 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
45.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+4
46.0%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
46.1%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
46.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
46.8%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
48.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
49.0%
Dylan Barnas 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3851% → 51%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
50.7%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
51.2%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted for a 1ST down Tay Gowan return for 18 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-11 Yards) to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5256% → 70%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
44.4%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
44.5%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the Cincy 4Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
45.1%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.9%
Greg McCrae 1 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:4435% → 36%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
34.9%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
36.9%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
36.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 11 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
37.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
37.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-1
35.6%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:4737% → 44%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
37.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 13 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
38.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 22 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
40.5%
Michael Warren II run for 11 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
41.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 5 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+12
39.9%
Michael Warren II run for 12 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
41.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+17
41.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 17 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
41.6%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-5
39.9%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 9Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
43.5%
Sam Crosa 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:5260% → 57%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
39.8%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (-12 Yards) to the UCF 13Similar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+1
40.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
40.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
41.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
42.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1043% → 39%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
43.1%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
42.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-9
41.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Brendon Hayes for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+6
39.3%
James Smith punt for 50 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 6 yds to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:0360% → 57%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
39.6%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+2
40.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 2 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 18
OWN 20
0
40.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 18
OWN 20
-5
41.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 23
OWN 15
+3
41.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
43.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0946% → 42%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
45.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Trent Cloud for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
50
+10
46.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
46.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
45.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
41.6%
James Smith punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
60.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted for a TD Ahmad Gardner return for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0040% → 37%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
60.2%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
60.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-3
61.2%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
63.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0864% → 62%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
64.0%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+5
63.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
62.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+52
61.6%
James Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the CINCINNATI 28 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1039% → 36%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
61.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+16
59.6%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
58.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
59.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-1
61.3%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Elijah Ponder for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
63.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:3166% → 85%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
65.5%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+60
66.3%
Michael Warren II run for 60 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
84.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25INT
13 plays · 61 yds · 1:5318% → 22%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
81.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 27 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
78.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
79.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
77.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
77.7%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
78.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+5
81.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
77.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 9 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
77.5%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
77.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
77.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Jarell White return for 5 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 6:0985% → 91%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
84.6%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+6
85.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
85.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
87.6%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
87.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
89.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+13
90.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 13 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
90.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
90.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-1
90.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
90.6%
James Smith punt for 39 yds , Otis Anderson returns for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:589% → 6%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
91.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+3
91.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
91.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 18
OWN 10
-7
92.1%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Elijah Ponder for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 25
OWN 3
+6
92.8%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 19
OWN 9
0
93.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:1994% → 95%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
93.5%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-2
94.6%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
94.6%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
94.6%
James Smith punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 0:373% → 21%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
96.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 6 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+10
96.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 10 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 22 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
96.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
78.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 45 yds for a TD, (Dillon Gabriel pass to Adrian Killins Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:3788% → 95%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
87.5%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
88.7%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
89.0%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
91.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:08
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted for a TD Ahmad Gardner return for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)
+18.9
TD · Q4 14:55
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q4 3:11
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 45 yds for a TD, (Dillon Gabriel pass to Adrian Killins Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com