2019 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2019 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:48 · Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the Temp 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:46: Jager Gardner run for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +4.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:52: Jake Verity 39 yd FG GOOD TEMPLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — ECU win probability +4.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:21: Re'Mahn Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +7.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:07: Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +10.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:29: Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +4.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 9:12TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 34, down 7Close callPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it72.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:32ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snapGo for it27.8%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q1 7:45TEM 4th & 5 at ECU 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.7%42% to convertField goal71.6%−0.140% to makePunt71.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:42ECU 4th & 7 at TEM 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snapGo for it33.2%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call33.4%72% to makePunt31.2%−2.2average punt
- Q2 12:39TEM 4th & 11 at ECU 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snapGo for it61.7%−0.823% to convertField goalTheir call62.5%85% to makePunt58.4%−4.2average punt
- Q2 12:39ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 28, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.7%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%average punt
- Q2 11:33TEM 4th & 2 at ECU 19, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.5%56% to convertField goal65.9%−0.677% to makePunt62.9%−3.6average punt
- Q2 5:52ECU 4th & 7 at TEM 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snapGo for it31.6%−0.536% to convertField goalTheir call32.1%72% to makePunt27.1%−5.0average punt
- Q2 3:21ECU 4th & 10 at TEM 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it25.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q2 0:33TEM 4th & 7 at ECU 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it75.9%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.9%average punt
- Q3 10:43ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snapGo for it24.2%−2.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q3 7:57TEM 4th & 10 at ECU 38, up 7Close callPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.0%30% to convertField goal75.8%−0.238% to makePuntTheir call75.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 4:28ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 5, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it20.7%−4.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 44, down 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it13.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%−1.4average punt
- Q4 10:37TEM 4th & 2 at ECU 21, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.6%57% to convertField goalTheir call91.8%−0.874% to makePunt87.0%−5.6average punt
- Q4 7:48ECU 4th & 10 at TEM 36, down 17Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−<0.130% to convertField goal5.0%42% to makePunt4.7%−0.3average punt
- Q4 3:52TEM 4th & 23 at ECU 49, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q4 0:07ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 40, down 10Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%−<0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:25ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.2%97% to makeGo for two26.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:46TEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.9%97% to makeGo for two68.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:21TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.9%97% to makeGo for two72.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:07TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.6%97% to makeGo for two85.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:29ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.6%97% to makeGo for two5.2%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartECUDrive 1TD16 plays · 90 yds · 4:3524% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
24.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 3 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
24.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 3 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
24.2%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY TEM offside defense (DIOUBATE,Karamo) 5 yards to the ECU21, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
24.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
24.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for no gain to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
24.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trace Christian for 3 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
24.2%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY TEM offside defense (LEVINE,Dana) 5 yards to the TEM36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+7
24.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trace Christian for 7 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+5
24.2%
AHLERS, Holton deep out pass incomplete to PROEHL, Blake (BRASWELL,C.), PENALTY TEM offside defense (MESDAY,Zack) 5 yards to the TEM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
28.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1372% → 71%
ECUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4DOWNS7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+26
29.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 26 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
29.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 5 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
29.3%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by Ja'Quan McMillianSimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
29.5%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Jadan Blue, broken up by Ja'Quan McMillianSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5MISSED FG9 plays · 41 yds · 2:5832% → 35%
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
32.5%
MAUNEY, Dmtrius rush up middle for 5 yards to the TEM34 (BRADLEY,Shaun;MESDAY,Zack), PENALTY TEM substitution infraction 5 yards to the TEM34, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6FG12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0366% → 66%
ECUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
TEMDrive 8TD10 plays · 55 yds · 3:4766% → 72%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
33.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 8 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
32.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 4 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
32.5%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Isaiah Wright, broken up by Ja'Quan McMillianSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9FG9 plays · 53 yds · 1:5431% → 38%
Q2 7:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
30.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 11 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
30.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 25 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
33.2%
TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Sam Franklin) to the Temp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
37.6%
Jake Verity 39 yd FG GOOD TEMPLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD10 plays · 45 yds · 2:2368% → 78%
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+22
30.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 22 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 3:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
25.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 28 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 1:2075% → 76%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
24.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 15 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
22.8%
Anthony Russo sacked by Kendall Futrell for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 48Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
24.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 4 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14FUMBLE14 plays · 53 yds · 0:0075% → 77%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
25.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 7 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
24.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 17 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
23.3%
GARDNER,Jager rush up middle for no gain to the ECU46 (TURNER, Alex), PENALTY ECU offside defense (PRICE, Jalen) 5 yards to the ECU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+8
23.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 8 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
23.0%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Isaiah Wright, broken up by Ja'Quan McMillian TEMPLE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-9
23.5%
Anthony Russo sacked by Kendall Futrell for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 22 Anthony Russo fumbled, recovered by ECaro Kendall Futrell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-5
26.8%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+23
25.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 23 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-5
28.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Fernando Frye) to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
25.6%
Jonn Young punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q3 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
23.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jadan Blue for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0027% → 24%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
26.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Chapelle RussellSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 13
OWN 7
-2
25.1%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Dana Levine for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 5Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 15
OWN 5
0
24.4%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the ECaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18TD9 plays · 49 yds · 2:5579% → 92%
Q3 3:02
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+10
21.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 10 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
21.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 7 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
8.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0712% → 12%
TEMDrive 20FG10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2992% → 95%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
8.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 6 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
8.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 7 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
8.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 12 yds to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
7.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 14 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS12 plays · 43 yds · 2:495% → 5%
Q4 7:48
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+5
5.7%
AHLERS, Holton deep out pass complete to JOHNSON, C.J. for 35 yards to the TEM6, fumble forced by JOHNSON,Freddie, fumble by JOHNSON, C.J. recovered by ECU TEAM at TEM0, clock 07:48, PENALTY TEM offside defense (BANKS,Khris) 5 yards to the TEM36, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
5.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Christian BraswellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22PUNT11 plays · 19 yds · 3:0096% → 97%
Q4 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
3.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 10 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+12
3.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 12 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
3.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+1
3.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 1 yd to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 13
OPP 39
-10
2.4%
DAVIS,Re'Mahn rush over left end for 6 yards to the ECU33 (RAMSEUR, Aaron), PENALTY TEM holding (MOORE,Isaac) 10 yards to the ECU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 23
OPP 49
+32
2.6%
Adam Barry punt for 32 yds , Tyler Snead returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD10 plays · 84 yds · 2:293% → 8%
Q4 2:58
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+5
2.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+5
2.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Demetrius Mauney for 5 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+5
2.6%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY TEM offside defense (ROCHE,Quincy) 5 yards to the ECU29, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+37
2.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 37 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
3.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Watley for 12 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
3.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive holding (Amir Tyler) to the Temp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
7.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24END OF GAME7 plays · 10 yds · 0:225% → 3%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-17
5.4%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Ifeanyi Maijeh for a loss of 17 yards to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 27
OWN 27
+13
3.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Demetrius Mauney for 13 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
2.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Demetrius Mauney, broken up by Quincy RocheSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 14
OWN 40
+14
2.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 14 yds to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:07
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
-10.8
TD · Q2 3:21
Re'Mahn Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
-7.5
FG · Q2 5:52
Jake Verity 39 yd FG GOOD TEMPLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+4.7