Try the model
SMU

SMU 48 at South Florida 21

USF
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:22 · Trent Schneider punt for 34 yds , James Proche returns for 5 yds to the SMU 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−23.8Score differential−12.2Pregame prior−13.6Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:58: Xavier Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK) — SMU win probability +1.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:56: Xavier Jones 36 Yd Run (Russell Roberts Kick) — SMU win probability +4.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:56: James Proche 6 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Russell Roberts Kick) — SMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:30: James Proche 19 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Russell Roberts PAT failed) — SMU win probability +4.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:30: Shane Buechele 10 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick) — SMU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:21USF 4th & 4 at USF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58USF 4th & 7 at SMU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:56SMU 4th & 2 at USF 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−5.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:56USF 4th & 13 at USF 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:22USF 4th & 14 at USF 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:30USF 4th & 14 at USF 28, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:27SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 34, up 34
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:09USF 4th & 13 at USF 21, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:19SMU 4th & 4 at USF 49, up 34
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:08USF 4th & 20 at USF 15, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 1 at SMU 40, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 26 at SMU 42, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:46SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 42, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:41USF 4th & 6 at USF 28, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 49, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:14USF 4th & 11 at SMU 24, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:58SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:56SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:56SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:22SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:30SMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:30SMU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:26USF Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:40USF Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:01SMU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:57USF Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.2%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
30.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
30.2%
Trevor Denbow punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
30.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-5
31.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
30.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+3
30.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Terrence Horne for 3 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+12
30.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 38 , James Proche returns for 12 yds to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:2368% → 70%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
31.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 17 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
31.4%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+23
31.4%
Xavier Jones run for 23 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
31.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 4 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
30.3%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4INT
17 plays · 77 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
30.8%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+5
30.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+7
30.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 7 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
30.8%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-4
30.8%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Gary Wiley for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+31
30.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
31.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
31.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
31.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 7 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
31.3%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
31.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
31.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+18
30.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 18 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
31.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
31.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
31.3%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted, touchback. Rodney Clemons return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5969% → 74%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
31.0%
BUECHELE, Shane pass complete to ROBERSON JR, Re for 1 yard to the SMU21 (SAILS, KJ), PENALTY SMU ineligible downfield on pass (BECKER, Ryan) 5 yards to the SMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+30
31.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 15 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mike Hampton) to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
30.2%
Xavier Jones run for 12 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
30.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 5 yds to the SFla 38 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
30.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 3 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+9
30.2%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+36
26.0%
Xavier Jones 36 Yd Run (Russell Roberts Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
27.1%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Rodney Clemons return for no gain to the SMU 27 SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Rodney Clemons) to the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1974% → 82%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
26.3%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
26.2%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
26.4%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
25.6%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+54
25.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 39 yds to the SOUFLA 29 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, roughing passer (Patrick Macon) to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
25.1%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
25.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
25.3%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
17.9%
James Proche 6 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Russell Roberts Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
19.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kevin Purlett for 13 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
20.1%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
20.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kevin PurlettSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-7
20.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Terrance Newman for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
19.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:0984% → 85%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
15.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
15.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 8 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
15.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+9
15.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
15.0%
Reggie Roberson Jr. 31 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Russell Roberts Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
10.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-4
10.3%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
10.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 14
OWN 29
+5
10.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 34 yds , James Proche returns for 5 yds to the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 0:4285% → 90%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
14.7%
Xavier Jones run for 29 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
14.0%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to SANDERS, CJ, PENALTY USF pass interference (HAMPTON, Mike) 15 yards to the USF14, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
14.0%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SFla 14Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
14.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+19
9.9%
James Proche 19 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Russell Roberts PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
5.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
5.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-4
5.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Delontae Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+12
5.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 43 yds , James Proche returns for 12 yds to the SMU 40 SMU Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Lavine) to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
8.3%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
8.4%
Shane Buechele run for 5 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
8.5%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
8.9%
Trevor Denbow punt for 42 yds, downed at the SFla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
5.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+4
5.4%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-1
5.2%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Nelson Paul for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 12
OWN 22
-1
5.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
5.1%
Trent Schneider punt for 44 yds , CJ Sanders returns for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
6.0%
Xavier Jones run for 10 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
5.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
5.8%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
5.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
6.4%
Trevor Denbow punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:494% → 4%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
4.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-4
4.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Pono Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-2
3.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Demerick Gary for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+1
3.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 62 yds , CJ Sanders returns for 1 yd to the SMU 16 SMU Penalty, tripping ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0095% → 96%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
4.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Rock for 11 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
4.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 6 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Demaurez Bellamy) to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
4.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to TJ McDanielSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
4.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 2 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-5
4.4%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+40
4.4%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Devin Studstill return for 40 yds to the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 10 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
3.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 10 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
6.3%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Johnny Ford for 18 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
6.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Johnny Ford for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
6.7%
Blake Barnett run for 4 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
6.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
7.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
7.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+14
6.9%
Blake Barnett sacked by Zach Abercrumbia for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 41 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, illegal use of hands (Zach Abercrumbia) to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
7.3%
Blake Barnett run for 4 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
6.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the SMU 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Jah'Quez Evans , return for no gain to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 26
OPP 42
0
6.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 26
OPP 42
0
6.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 26 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
2.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
2.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-5
2.6%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+23
2.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 23 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
2.5%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-2
2.5%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
2.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
2.8%
SMU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+5
2.8%
Trevor Denbow punt for 39 yds , KJ Sails returns for 5 yds to the SFla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
2.6%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Terrence HorneSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
2.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Trevon Sands for 4 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
2.4%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+21
2.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , CJ Sanders returns for 21 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:1099% → 99%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
50
+4
1.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
1.5%
Merek Pierce run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
1.6%
Merek Pierce run for 3 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
1.5%
Merek Pierce run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
1.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 3 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+20
1.5%
Shane Buechele run for 6 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Devin Studstill) to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
1.5%
Merek Pierce run for 4 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
1.5%
Merek Pierce run for no gain to the SFla 10Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
0.8%
Shane Buechele 10 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+43
0.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 43 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
0.7%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 7 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+6
0.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Johnny Ford for 6 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.7%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
0.6%
Jacob Mathis 24 Yd pass from Blake Barnett (Coby Weiss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:2699% → 99%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
0.7%
TaMerik Williams run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+11
0.7%
Terrance Gipson run for 11 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
0.6%
TaMerik Williams run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-3
0.6%
Terrance Gipson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+5
0.7%
Terrance Gipson pass complete to TaMerik Williams for 5 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
0.7%
Warren Scott punt for 34 yds, downed at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:120% → 1%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
0.3%
Blake Barnett run for 20 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.3%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+50
0.3%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Bryce Miller for 37 yds to the SOUFLA 26 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.7%
Bryce Miller 13 Yd pass from Blake Barnett (Coby Weiss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:39100% → 100%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.5%
Rashee Rice run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.5%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+25
0.5%
Terrance Gipson run for 10 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Patrick Macon) to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
0.5%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+36
0.5%
Terrance Gipson pass complete to Tyler Page for 21 yds to the SOUFLA 30 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Demaurez Bellamy) to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
0.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
0.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+6
0.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.3%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Tyler Lavine 1 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+30
0.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jacob Mathis for 30 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
0.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+4
0.2%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
0.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 20 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
0.2%
BARNETT, Blake pass incomplete to MILLER, Bryce, PENALTY SMU pass interference (CALLOWAY, C.) 15 yards to the SMU7, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.3%
Mitchell Wilcox 7 Yd pass from Blake Barnett (Coby Weiss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:57
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
0.2%
Derek Green pass complete to CJ Sanders for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+3
0.2%
Derek Green pass intercepted Stacy Kirby return for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
50
+15
0.2%
BARNETT, Blake pass incomplete to FORD, Johnny, PENALTY SMU illegal use of hands 15 yards to the SMU35, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
0.2%
Blake Barnett sacked by Toby Ndukwe for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+17
0.1%
Blake Barnett run for 17 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
0.1%
Blake Barnett sacked by Toby Ndukwe for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 18
OPP 31
0
0.1%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 18
OPP 31
+7
0.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to N/A for 7 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 11
OPP 24
-7
0.0%
Blake Barnett sacked by Richard McBryde and Elijah Chatman for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:56
James Proche 6 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Russell Roberts Kick)
-6.6
TD · Q1 1:56
Xavier Jones 36 Yd Run (Russell Roberts Kick)
-4.2
TD · Q2 7:30
James Proche 19 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Russell Roberts PAT failed)
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com