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NAVY

Navy 23 at Memphis 35

MEM
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 26, 2019 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:15 · Owen White punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+14.2Home team on offense−6.3Garbage-time factor−2.5Score differential−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:48: J.R. Osborn kickoff for 64 yds , Gabriel Rogers return for 99 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +9.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:05: Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +14.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:37: Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 73 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +15.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:17: Bijan Nichols 49 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +10.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:27: Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 31 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +11.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:55NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:01NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.1%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:13MEM 4th & 13 at NAVY 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:36NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:37MEM 4th & 14 at MEM 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:15NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:22NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:02NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.7%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:17NAVY 4th & 13 at MEM 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−2.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:16NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 28, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:17MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 45, up 12
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:06NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 37, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:55NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:43MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:44NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:01NAVY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:48MEM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:05MEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:37MEM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:27MEM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0520% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
79.7%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 41 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
79.5%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Memph 34 Malcolm Perry fumbled, recovered by Navy Nelson SmithSimilar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
79.3%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 4 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+8
79.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 8 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
78.9%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+14
78.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
78.5%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Memph 4Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
78.3%
Tazh Maloy run for 3 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.2%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
78.5%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 75 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4822% → 22%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.3%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Ford Higgins) to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+27
78.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 27 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
77.8%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-4
77.5%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+1
77.7%
Chance Warren run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
77.6%
Owen White punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0578% → 77%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
77.6%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 9 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-4
77.9%
Kenneth Gainwell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
77.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-3
76.9%
Adam Williams punt for 48 yds , Garrett Winn returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 22 NAVY Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 4:5923% → 29%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
77.2%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+3
76.8%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
76.8%
Tazh Maloy run for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
76.3%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 9 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+6
75.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
75.4%
Perry Olsen run for 4 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+25
75.2%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 25 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
74.3%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-2
74.1%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+17
71.5%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Chance Warren for 17 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:2473% → 72%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
72.6%
Kenneth Gainwell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 14 Kenneth Gainwell fumbled, forced by Diego Fagot, recovered by Memph Sean DykesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+3
72.5%
Brady White run for 3 yds to the Memph 17 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 14
OWN 17
-4
71.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
69.2%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 48 Nelson Smith fumbled, forced by O'Bryan Goodson, recovered by Memph Xavier CullensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:5473% → 73%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
73.0%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 6 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+23
73.1%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 23 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
73.7%
Kylan Watkins run for 16 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
72.9%
Brady White sacked by Diego Fagot for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
72.6%
Brady White sacked by Jacob Springer for a loss of 13 yards to the Navy 26 Brady White fumbled, forced by Jacob Springer, recovered by Navy Nizaire Cromartie , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:4331% → 45%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+47
69.0%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 47 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
67.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+3
66.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
66.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
65.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
64.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
64.8%
CJ Williams run for 4 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
63.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.6%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4736% → 37%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.4%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Chance Warren for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
63.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
63.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
63.1%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12MISSED FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4869% → 62%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
68.8%
Kenneth Gainwell run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
68.5%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 4 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-7
67.0%
Kenneth Gainwell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+55
62.2%
Riley Patterson 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 34 yds · 3:1340% → 47%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
60.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
58.5%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 6 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
57.9%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 2 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
57.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+9
56.2%
Perry, Malcolm pass incomplete, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (Pickens, Thomas) 9 yards to the MEMPHIS40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.1%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
55.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
54.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
55.9%
Perry Olsen run for 2 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
53.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
53.4%
Perry Olsen run for no gain to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+46
53.4%
Bijan Nichols 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1763% → 57%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
62.9%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
62.7%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-6
61.6%
Brady White sacked by Nizaire Cromartie and J'arius Warren for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 49Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
57.4%
Adam Williams punt for 43 yds, downed at the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2243% → 43%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
56.7%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 3 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
56.2%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Tazh MaloySimilar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
56.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
57.2%
Owen White punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:1060% → 75%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
50
+12
60.4%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
60.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Dylan Parham) to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+16
58.5%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 16 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
61.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 5 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+13
60.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 13 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
60.6%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 4 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:4329% → 29%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
70.0%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Kendel Wright) to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
70.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.6%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
69.2%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 16
OWN 30
-3
70.5%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Wardalis Ducksworth for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+10
71.5%
CJ Williams run for 10 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+5
71.5%
Owen White punt for 38 yds , Traveon Samuel returns for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:4571% → 85%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
70.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Obinna Eze) to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-10
70.2%
Gainwell, Kenneth rush for 6 yards to the MEMPHIS31, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (Dill, Scottie) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+14
69.7%
Traveon Samuel run for 14 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-2
69.6%
Brady White pass complete to Traveon Samuel for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+73
85.0%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 73 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 6:1617% → 27%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
83.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
84.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+4
85.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+6
85.6%
Tazh Maloy run for 6 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
84.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+18
83.5%
Chance Warren run for 18 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
82.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+10
82.9%
CJ Williams run for 10 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
81.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-2
81.2%
Myles Fells run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-5
83.3%
Tazh Maloy run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+49
73.3%
Bijan Nichols 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:3981% → 94%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
80.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 13 yds to the MEMPHIS 46 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
81.4%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
82.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
93.7%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 31 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:1110% → 5%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.4%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.6%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
91.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
91.9%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.6%
Owen White punt for 52 yds , Traveon Samuel returns for no gain to the Memph 28 MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:5994% → 97%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
94.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 4 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
94.6%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+9
94.8%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 9 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.4%
Brady White pass complete to Joseph Dorceus for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
95.6%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
95.9%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 3 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
96.0%
Kylan Watkins run for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
96.3%
Kylan Watkins run for 1 yd to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+6
96.4%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 6 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+17
96.8%
Adam Williams punt for 41 yds , Garrett Winn returns for 17 yds to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23INT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:113% → 2%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
97.4%
CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
97.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Myles Fells for 2 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
98.0%
Perry Olsen sacked by Morris Joseph for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Perry Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+2
98.3%
Perry Olsen run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
98.4%
Perry Olsen pass intercepted Sanchez Blake Jr. return for no gain to the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -12 yds · 2:0698% → 98%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 21Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 19
OWN 21
-1
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 20
-2
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:37
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 73 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q3 9:05
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q4 11:27
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 31 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com