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TXST

Texas State 17 at SMU 47

SMU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:35 · Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Micah Hilts, broken up by Patrick Nelson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+21.4Home team on offense+14.0Score differential+5.5Garbage-time factor+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:02: TJ McDaniel run for 10 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan PAT BLOCKED) — SMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:44: Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK) — SMU win probability +4.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:26: TJ McDaniel run for 39 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK) — SMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:29: Gresch Jensen pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 10 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +3.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:06: TJ McDaniel run for 42 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK) — SMU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 11:47TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:13TXST 4th & 1 at SMU 10, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 23, up 4
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:46TXST 4th & 18 at SMU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:30SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:32TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:53TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:04TXST 4th & 10 at SMU 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:59SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 37, up 10
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:11SMU 4th & 1 at TXST 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−1.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:47TXST 4th & 2 at SMU 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:54TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:35TXST 4th & 8 at SMU 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:22SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:09TXST 4th & 27 at TXST 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:23TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:47SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:02SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:44SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:26SMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:29TXST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:06SMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:32SMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:50TXST Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:38SMU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:1390% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
89.7%
Xavier Jones run for 20 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
89.7%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+2
89.7%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+43
89.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 43 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
89.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 5 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
89.7%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
89.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
89.3%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
89.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
89.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+6
89.1%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Jarron Morris return for 6 yds to the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1711% → 12%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
88.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 9 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
88.7%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
88.8%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+27
88.0%
Joshua Rowland 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
88.0%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+3
88.0%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+1
87.9%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
87.8%
Warren Scott punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
87.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+15
87.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 15 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-11
87.4%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Patrick Nelson for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 21
OPP 49
0
87.7%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Micah Hilts, broken up by Richard MooreSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 21
OPP 49
+3
87.8%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
88.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
87.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+2
87.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+6
86.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
87.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+6
87.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+3
86.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 3 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+1
86.8%
Warren Scott punt for 39 yds , Hutch White returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.9%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
85.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Mason Hays for 8 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
85.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
85.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:0986% → 88%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
85.8%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+8
85.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 8 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
85.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+48
86.3%
TJ McDaniel run for 48 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
86.6%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
88.3%
TJ McDaniel run for 10 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
87.8%
Jensen, Gresch pass complete to Twyford,Caleb for 3 yards to the TXST30 (MCBRYDE, R.), PENALTY TXST holding (Haydel,Jeremiah) 10 yards to the TXST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+4
87.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 16
OWN 21
-10
88.0%
Jensen, Gresch rush for 6 yards to the TXST27, PENALTY TXST holding (Rivas, Eddie) 10 yards to the TXST11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 26
OWN 11
+3
88.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 23
OWN 14
+5
88.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 18
OWN 19
+20
88.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 40 , James Proche returns for 20 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
88.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
88.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+7
87.9%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Jalen Smith return for 7 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
87.0%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
86.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Micah Hilts, broken up by Richard McBrydeSimilar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
86.8%
Gresch Jensen run for 3 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
86.6%
Jensen, Gresch pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah, PENALTY SMU pass interference (SUTTON, Eric) 15 yards to the SMU34, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
86.2%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
86.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
86.8%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jah'Marae Sheread, broken up by Eric SuttonSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
87.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 29 yds, downed at the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
87.2%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+5
87.3%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
87.4%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+8
87.4%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
87.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
87.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+5
87.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
86.9%
Warren Scott punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.3%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
87.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
87.4%
Gresch Jensen pass intercepted Rodney Clemons return for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
88.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 26 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
88.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
88.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-5
88.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+7
88.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-1
87.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:3113% → 13%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
87.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 7 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+6
86.9%
Caleb Twyford run for 6 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
87.1%
SMU Penalty, personal foul (Delano Robinson) to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
86.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
86.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
86.3%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
86.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0888% → 87%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
87.6%
Xavier Jones run for 12 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
86.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
86.9%
SMU Penalty, personal foul (Michael Salerno) to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
86.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
86.5%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
87.1%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+11
87.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds , James Proche returns for 11 yds to the SMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:0988% → 93%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
88.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 34 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
88.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 26 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
88.6%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.2%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
93.2%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+1
92.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
93.1%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 24 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
92.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 6 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
92.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+5
92.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
92.2%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
92.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for no gain to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+2
92.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
92.8%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Micah Hilts, broken up by Patrick NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3095% → 98%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
95.0%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+11
95.2%
Xavier Jones run for 11 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
95.2%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+39
97.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 39 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:573% → 6%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
97.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 28 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
97.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 5 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+12
96.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hunter Hebert for 12 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
96.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+10
97.1%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 10 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
97.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 10 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
95.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
95.5%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
95.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen Granson, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
95.1%
Warren Scott punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
95.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brian Holloway) to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.9%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-6
95.0%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Toby Ndukwe for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 16
OWN 36
-11
95.4%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Patrick Nelson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 27
OWN 25
+9
95.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 49 , James Proche returns for 9 yds to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 1:0996% → 99%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
96.2%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
96.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+42
98.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 42 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
98.8%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 6 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+6
98.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 6 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Mason Hays for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-6
98.6%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Delontae Scott for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-4
98.8%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Patrick Nelson for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
98.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
99.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 58 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jacoby Hopkins for 7 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Tyler Page returns for 6 yds to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29FUMBLE
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Terrance Gipson run for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+30
99.9%
Terrance Gipson pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 30 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.9%
Terrance Gipson run for 8 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+4
99.9%
TaMerik Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
99.9%
Terrance Gipson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+5
99.9%
TaMerik Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+48
99.9%
TaMerik Williams run for 1 yd to the SMU 37 TaMerik Williams fumbled, forced by Ishmael Davis, recovered by TexSt Kevin Anderson , return for 48 yds to the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 30TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:020% → 1%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+35
99.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 35 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 5:1199% → 100%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
99.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 20 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+9
99.4%
Terrance Gipson run for 9 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
99.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
99.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.4%
Merek Pierce run for 2 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
99.4%
Merek Pierce run for 6 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+7
99.4%
Merek Pierce run for 7 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Merek Pierce run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 32END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Jaylin Nelson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
Jaylin Nelson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:44
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q3 4:29
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 10 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
-3.3
TD · Q3 0:06
TJ McDaniel run for 42 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com