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ECU

East Carolina 10 at Navy 42

NAVY
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:58 · Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 10 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+28.5Pregame prior+3.7Blowout margin+15.4Garbage-time factor+10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:26: Malcolm Perry run for 18 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +1.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:46: Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:38: Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 9:09: Jake Verity 23 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +5.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:53: Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 17 at ECU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:34NAVY 4th & 1 at ECU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:47ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:46ECU 4th & 13 at NAVY 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:09ECU 4th & 6 at NAVY 6, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:03NAVY 4th & 4 at ECU 47, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:05NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 37, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 45, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:53ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:34ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 26, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:23NAVY 4th & 6 at ECU 42, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:58ECU 4th & 2 at NAVY 42, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:16NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 49, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:01ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 10, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:14NAVY 4th & 6 at ECU 46, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:26NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:46NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:38NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:25NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:53NAVY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:34NAVY Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:30ECU Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
65.9%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-5
65.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Branden Pena) to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
65.9%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
65.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 21
-5
65.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
65.9%
Jonn Young punt for 22 yds, downed at the ECaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:0866% → 67%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
66.0%
CJ Williams run for 10 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
66.0%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
66.0%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+7
65.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Myles Fells for 7 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+1
65.9%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
67.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 18 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3933% → 33%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
66.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 12 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
66.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
66.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+11
66.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Leroy Henley for 11 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
67.1%
Jonn Young punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:5468% → 73%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
67.6%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
67.9%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+30
67.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 30 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
68.1%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
68.4%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+11
68.2%
Tazh Maloy run for 11 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
68.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
72.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
71.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+24
71.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 24 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
71.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Brennan) to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
70.8%
Jsi Hatfield run for 7 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
70.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
70.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-10
71.0%
AHLERS, Holton pass complete to FARRIER, Deondr for 6 yards to the NAVY33 (FOCHTMAN, Evan), PENALTY ECU holding (PENA, Branden) 10 yards to the NAVY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
71.8%
Jonn Young punt for 34 yds, fair catch by CJ Williams at the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:0873% → 85%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
73.1%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+14
73.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
73.1%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
73.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+6
73.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
73.7%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+1
73.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+9
75.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
76.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+15
76.0%
PERRY, Malcolm rush for loss of 4 yards to the ECU48 (STRINGER, G.), PENALTY ECU personal foul (STRINGER, G.) 15 yards to the ECU29, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
85.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:2917% → 20%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
82.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
82.7%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+7
83.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+9
82.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
82.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+41
82.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 41 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
81.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for 5 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
85.2%
MAUNEY, Dmtrius rush for 1 yard to the NAVY0, clock 09:19, PENALTY ECU illegal formation 5 yards to the NAVY6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
79.6%
Jake Verity 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:4486% → 87%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
86.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 19 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
86.9%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
86.8%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 8 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-3
86.3%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+24
87.1%
Nelson Smith run for 9 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jalen Price) to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
87.8%
Mychal Cooper run for 11 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
87.3%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the ECaro 6 Nelson Smith fumbled, recovered by Navy Nelson Smith , return for 6 yds to the ECaro 6Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
87.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
81.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
81.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Demetrius MauneySimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+7
82.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
88.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
89.7%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Alex Turner for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 14
OWN 37
-1
88.3%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+1
88.2%
CJ Williams run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
87.9%
Owen White punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
83.6%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 13Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-1
83.6%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 12Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+17
83.7%
Hussein Howe run for 17 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0795% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
95.3%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
95.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
95.4%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-1
95.6%
Myles Fells run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
95.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
95.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
95.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
50
+27
95.6%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau for 27 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
95.6%
Nelson Smith run for 12 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
95.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
95.4%
Tazh Maloy run for 4 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
95.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy Henley, broken up by Cameron KinleySimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
98.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.4%
Jonn Young punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.4%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 80 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 23Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
99.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+11
99.5%
Jonn Young punt for 54 yds , CJ Williams returns for 11 yds to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 4:34100% → 100%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.6%
Perry Olsen run for 5 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
99.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.6%
Perry Olsen run for 7 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-15
99.6%
RUOSS, Isaac rush for 2 yards to the ECU49 (BERRY, Myles), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (HIGGINS, Ford) 15 yards to the NAVY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+20
99.5%
Travis Brannan run for 20 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Perry Olsen run for no gain to the ECaro 48 Perry Olsen fumbled, recovered by Navy Isaac RuossSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+2
99.6%
Perry Olsen pass complete to Myles Fells for 2 yds to the ECaro 46 NAVY Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.6%
Perry Olsen run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 6
OPP 42
-8
99.8%
Perry Olsen sacked by Gerard Stringer for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.8%
Demetrius Mauney run for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-3
99.8%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
50
+8
99.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+10
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 10 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 22 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
99.8%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 11Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
99.9%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY NAVY pass interference (MCMORRIS, M) 9 yards to the NAVY2, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Perry Olsen run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
99.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
99.8%
Perry Olsen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 39
-2
99.8%
Tyreek King-El run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+12
99.8%
Perry Olsen run for 12 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Owen White punt for 41 yds , Tyler Snead returns for no gain to the ECaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
99.9%
Hussein Howe run for 4 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-4
99.9%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 10Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Kevin BrennanSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Jonn Young punt for 31 yds , Daniel Taylor returns for no gain to the ECaro 42 Daniel Taylor fumbled, recovered by ECaro Mydreon VinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-13
99.9%
Jsi Hatfield run for a loss of 13 yards to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 23
OWN 29
+11
99.9%
Hussein Howe run for 11 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+20
99.9%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Kevin Brennan return for 10 yds to the 50 yard line NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for 3 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
99.9%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-5
99.9%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Owen White punt for 39 yds, downed at the ECaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
100.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 6 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+2
100.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+2
100.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 21 Demetrius Mauney fumbled, forced by Deondrae Williams, recovered by Navy Austin Talbert-LovingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 15
OPP 26
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:38
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+9.2
FG · Q2 9:09
Jake Verity 23 yd FG GOOD
-5.4
TD · Q1 5:46
Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com