Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 13 at Cincinnati 35

CIN
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+5.8CIN 88.5%Desmond Ridder pass complete to JosiahDeguara for 27 yds for a TD, (SamCrosa KICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 21 · Q3 10:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:37 · Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 27 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Pregame prior+19.8Home team on offense+12.2Score differential+2.6Garbage-time factor+5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:35: Michael Warren II run for 8 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +2.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 0:10: Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — CIN win probability +7.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:37: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 27 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +5.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:27: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 51 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +7.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:24: Michael Warren II run for 73 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8M-OH made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56CIN 4th & 23 at CIN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:54CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:13M-OH 4th & 4 at CIN 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:28CIN 4th & 25 at CIN 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:44M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:08CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:30M-OH 4th & 21 at M-OH 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−2.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:09CIN 4th & 6 at M-OH 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:37CIN 4th & 5 at M-OH 27, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:31M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:11M-OH 4th & 7 at CIN 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:11M-OH 4th & 10 at CIN 18, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:18M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 17 at M-OH 35, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:10M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 4, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:53CIN 4th & 13 at M-OH 13, up 22
    Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:43M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 18, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:58M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:35CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:10CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:37CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:27CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:24CIN Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
89.4%
Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+3
89.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 3 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+3
89.4%
Brett Gabbert run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+8
89.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 8 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
88.9%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Andrew Sharp for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-10
88.8%
WARREN, Michael rush for 1 yard to the CIN38 (SHARP, Andrew;BOLDIN, Luke), PENALTY CIN holding (FERGUSON, Chris) 10 yards to the CIN27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 23
OWN 27
0
88.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad Medaris, broken up by Zedrick RaymondSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 23
OWN 27
0
88.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah Deguara CINCINNATI Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 23
OWN 27
+11
88.7%
James Smith punt for 44 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 11 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:4712% → 14%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
88.4%
Davion Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
88.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
50
+13
88.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 13 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
88.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
88.3%
Davion Johnson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
88.3%
Davion Johnson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
88.3%
GABBERT, Brett pass incomplete to HOMER, Andrew, PENALTY CIN pass interference (BEAVERS, D.) 15 yards to the CIN11, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
88.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 6 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
88.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
88.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
86.0%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-5
86.0%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Kameron Butler for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 16
OWN 16
0
85.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+3
85.8%
James Smith punt for 43 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 3 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:0515% → 18%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
84.6%
GABBERT, Brett pass incomplete to HOMER, Andrew, PENALTY CIN roughing passer (BROOKS, Curtis) 15 yards to the CIN41, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
84.5%
Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+10
84.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 10 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
84.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 7 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-5
84.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
84.5%
Brett Gabbert run for 5 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-1
84.6%
Davion Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
82.5%
Sam Sloman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 4:3082% → 84%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
82.2%
Tre Tucker run for 9 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
82.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
82.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Myles Reid) to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
82.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+7
82.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
82.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 9 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
83.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
83.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+3
83.2%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
80.8%
RIDDER, Desmond rush for loss of 3 yards to the MIAMI16, out-of-bounds (RUGAMBA, E.), PENALTY CIN holding (COOPER, Jeremy) 10 yards to the MIAMI23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+8
80.6%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+7
80.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 7 yds to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
83.6%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FUMBLE
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
82.2%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+25
82.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 25 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.6%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
81.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Danny Godlevske) to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+7
82.2%
Tyre Shelton run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+42
81.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 42 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
80.9%
GABBERT, Brett pass complete to SHELTON, Tyre for 4 yards to the CIN14 (WRIGHT, Bryan;BRYANT, Coby), PENALTY CIN 12 men on the field 5 yards to the CIN13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 5
OPP 0
-13
80.9%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Bryan Wright for a loss of 13 yards to the Cincy 27 Brett Gabbert fumbled, recovered by Cincy Myjai Sanders , return for 0 yards MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
81.0%
RIDDER, Desmond pass complete to PIERCE, Alec for 23 yards to the 50 yardline (REID, Myles;MANSON, Nick), PENALTY CIN holding (COOPER, Jeremy) 10 yards to the CIN17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 20
OWN 17
0
80.8%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 20
OWN 17
-5
80.7%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Dean Lemon for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 25
OWN 12
0
80.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Trent CloudSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 25
OWN 12
0
79.9%
James Smith punt for 44 yds , Jalen Walker returns for no gain to the MiaOh 12 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (Kobe Burse) to the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
78.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
78.3%
Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+8
78.5%
Davion Johnson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
78.1%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+5
78.8%
Davion Johnson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-6
78.4%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Michael Pitts for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
80.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
76.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
76.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Trent Cloud, broken up by Zedrick RaymondSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+23
75.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 23 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
78.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
77.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
77.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
76.2%
James Smith punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Maurice Thomas at the MiaOh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
74.8%
Maurice Thomas run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-5
74.3%
Davion Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-12
75.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Michael Pitts for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaOh 10 MIAMI OH Penalty, intentional grounding (Brett Gabbert) to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 21
OWN 10
+11
76.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 45 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 11 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
13 plays · 44 yds · 1:5977% → 84%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
76.9%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+4
75.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 4 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-5
76.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Jeremy Cooper) to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+7
74.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 7 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+11
75.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
77.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
77.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
76.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 2 yds to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+15
76.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 15 yds to the MiaOh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
76.0%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.9%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 4:1981% → 89%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
81.2%
Michael Warren II run for 15 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
81.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Kameron Butler for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 27 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+5
80.1%
RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete to MEDARIS, Rashad, PENALTY MIAMI offside (PHELPS, Lonnie) 5 yards to the CIN32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+15
80.2%
RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete to PIERCE, Alec, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (BANKS, Travion) 15 yards to the CIN47, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
82.6%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
82.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 10 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
83.0%
Tavion Thomas run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
83.0%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by Zedrick Raymond CINCINNATI Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
83.3%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
82.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Trent CloudSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+27
88.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 27 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
88.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+10
88.3%
Davion Johnson run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
88.0%
Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Luke MayockSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew Homer, broken up by Darrick ForrestSimilar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+6
89.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 52 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 6 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
88.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by Emmanuel RugambaSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
88.9%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
88.4%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Travion Banks return for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
86.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Tyre SheltonSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
86.6%
Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-1
86.8%
Davion Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
87.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew HomerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:4289% → 96%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
89.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
89.7%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
89.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
96.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 51 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:085% → 8%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
95.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cam Blakely for 12 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
95.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
94.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Davion Johnson for 27 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
94.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
94.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
94.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
92.2%
Sam Sloman 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4795% → 98%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
98.2%
Michael Warren II run for 73 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
97.9%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 17
OWN 14
-3
97.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+13
98.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Davion Johnson for 13 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
97.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.7%
Tre Tucker run for 3 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
98.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+18
98.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 18 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
98.8%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-5
98.8%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 35
0
98.6%
James Smith punt for 33 yds, downed at the MiaOh 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
99.0%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+1
99.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+2
99.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+16
99.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 50 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 16 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 25 yds · 5:0999% → 100%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
99.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+12
99.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
99.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.1%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
99.1%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Chris Ferguson) to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
0
99.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad Medaris, broken up by Travion BanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
99.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+4
99.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
99.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Tyre SheltonSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+16
99.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 34 , Ryan Montgomery returns for 16 yds to the Cincy 34 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
99.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 26 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
99.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 37 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 17
OPP 47
+4
99.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+2
99.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the MiaOh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+7.1
TD · Q3 5:27
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 51 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q3 10:37
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 27 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com