2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadPV aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scorePV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:27 · Caleb Darbone punt, downed at the HOUSTON 45 PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, personal foul (Ronald Collins) to the PraVw 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 11:28: Dalton Witherspoon 46 yd FG GOOD — PV win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:19: D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 21 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:25: D'Eriq King run for 18 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:20: Trazon Connley pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 16 yds for a TD, (Zach Elder KICK) — PV win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: PV has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:06: Dalton Witherspoon 29 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7PV made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 11:28HOU 4th & 4 at PV 29, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call97.3%−<0.158% to makePunt97.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:28PV 4th & 19 at PV 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 5:46PV 4th & 6 at HOU 6, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call3.2%91% to makePunt2.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 2:27PV 4th & 10 at PV 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q2 15:00PV 4th & 9 at PV 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 10:25PV 4th & 2 at PV 33, down 28Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:19HOU 4th & 1 at PV 5, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%67% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%−0.492% to makePunt97.6%−1.4average punt
- Q2 0:20PV 4th & 11 at HOU 16, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.124% to convertField goal0.7%81% to makePunt0.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 15:00PV 4th & 11 at PV 24, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 10:06HOU 4th & 12 at PV 12, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.219% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%86% to makePunt97.5%−0.9average punt
- Q3 8:49HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 35, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 7:52PV 4th & 15 at HOU 40, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.117% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.134% to makePunt0.3%average punt
- Q3 3:48HOU 4th & 22 at HOU 28, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 15:00PV 4th & 2 at PV 43, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:38PV 4th & 15 at PV 27, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:35HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 21, up 27Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:54HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 29, up 27Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:35PV 4th & 12 at PV 49, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 9:19HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:27HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:19HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:25HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20PV Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:04PV Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHOUDrive 1FG10 plays · 36 yds · 3:3298% → 98%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+13
98.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 13 yds to the PraVw 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
98.3%
D'Eriq King sacked by DePriest Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the PraVw 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-9
98.3%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the PraVw 35 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the PraVw 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 45
-1
98.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for a loss of 1 yard to the PraVw 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 46
+17
98.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 17 yds to the PraVw 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD2 plays · 28 yds · 0:3698% → 98%
PVDrive 4FG9 plays · 59 yds · 3:332% → 3%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
97.8%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Klyde Chriss for 10 yds to the PraVw 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
97.7%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Jose Medrano for 9 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+27
97.7%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 27 yds to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1997% → 98%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
97.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 20 yds to the PraVw 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 2:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.5%
Caleb Darbone punt, downed at the HOUSTON 45 PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, personal foul (Ronald Collins) to the PraVw 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD5 plays · 40 yds · 1:3998% → 98%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
97.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 3 yds to the PraVw 37Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+14
97.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 14 yds to the PraVw 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
98.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 21 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:192% → 2%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+13
98.3%
Caleb Darbone punt for 40 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 13 yds to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD10 plays · 53 yds · 4:1498% → 99%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.3%
PORTER, Kyle rush up middle for 1 yard to the HOU48 (Joahua Williams), PENALTY PVAM offside (Ronald Collins) 5 yards to the PVAM48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
98.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 11 yds to the PraVw 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
98.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 8 yds to the PraVw 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 10:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.1%
Caleb Darbone punt blocked by Keith Corbin blocked by Keith CorbinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FG8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0299% → 99%
Q2 9:21
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-5
99.2%
D'Eriq King sacked by Storey Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the PraVw 28 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+14
99.3%
WITHERSPOON, Da field goal attempt from 45 GOOD, clock 08:10, PENALTY PVAM personal foul (Storey Jackson) 14 yards to the PVAM14, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 12TD20 plays · 85 yds · 5:591% → 2%
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Jared Scott for no gain to the PraVw 36Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.1%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 10 yds to the PraVw 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-10
99.1%
Trazon Connley sideline left pass incomplete to Travis O'Connor, PENALTY PVAM holding (Damerion Ward) 10 yards to the PVAM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+7
99.6%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Tony Mullins for 7 yds to the PraVw 38Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+19
99.6%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Chris Johnson for 19 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+28
99.6%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Travis O'Connor for 28 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
99.6%
Trazon Connley pass incomplete to Tristen Wallace, broken up by Damarion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+16
98.3%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 16 yds for a TD, (Zach Elder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
HOUDrive 15FG11 plays · 48 yds · 4:0599% → 100%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
98.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Christian Trahan for 12 yds to the PraVw 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+12
98.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 12 yds to the PraVw 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
98.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 6 yds to the PraVw 11Similar
Q3 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
98.7%
D'Eriq King sacked by Jason Dumas for a loss of 7 yards to the PraVw 12Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
98.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Ronald CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
HOUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
PVDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 42 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+27
99.8%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
50
+15
99.7%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 15 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-10
99.7%
Dawonya Tucker rush right for 2 yards to the HOU31 (SMITH, Ka.), PENALTY PVAM holding (Eric Dunn) 10 yards to the HOU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 18
OPP 43
-10
99.8%
Trazon Connley sacked by Grant Stuard for a loss of 10 yards to the PraVw 47Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Trazon Connley pass incomplete to Klyde Chriss, broken up by Shaun LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:48
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-7
99.9%
D'Eriq King sacked by Jason Dumas and Desmond Obi for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 12
OWN 38
-10
99.9%
ROY, Dane punt 60 yards to the PVAM2, Tony Mullins return to the PVAM3 (McGOWAN, Cole), PENALTY HOU holding 10 yards to the HOU28, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 20DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:350% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21INT3 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
99.9%
Chandler Smith run for 13 yds to the PraVw 31 for a 1ST down PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+7
99.9%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Logan Jackson return for 7 yds to the PraVw 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 22INT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
HOUDrive 23FUMBLE4 plays · 43 yds · 0:15100% → 100%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Chandler Smith for 1 yd Chandler Smith fumbled, forced by Logan Jackson, recovered by PraVw Drake CheatumSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 24PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
99.9%
Tyriek Starks sacked by Payton Turner for a loss of 5 yards to the PraVw 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
HOUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
PVDrive 27TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:480% → 1%
Q4 4:52
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+10
100.0%
Tyriek Starks pass complete to Chris Johnson for 10 yds to the PraVw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 4
50
-4
99.9%
Tyriek Starks sacked by Isaiah Chambers for a loss of 4 yards to the PraVw 46Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+54
99.5%
Tyriek Starks pass complete to Kristian Mosley for 54 yds for a TD, (Zach Elder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28END OF GAME4 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
PVDrive 29PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.3%
Tyriek Starks pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 9 yds to the PraVw 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
Trazon Connley pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 16 yds for a TD, (Zach Elder KICK)
-1.3
FG · Q3 10:06
Dalton Witherspoon 29 yd FG GOOD
+1
TD · Q2 10:25
D'Eriq King run for 18 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+0.9