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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadBUCK aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreBUCK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:46 · Jager Gardner run for 7 yds to the Buckn 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:41: Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — BUCK win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:45: Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 12 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:13: Anthony Russo pass intercepted for a TD Gavin Pringle return for 36 yds for a TD, (Ethan Torres PAT MISSED) — BUCK win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:13: BUCKNELL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Temp 8 — BUCK win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BUCK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:48: Ethan Torres 28 yd FG GOOD — BUCK win probability +0.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: BUCK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BUCK made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
- Q1 11:41BUCK 4th & 21 at BUCK 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 9:46TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:14BUCK 4th & 10 at BUCK 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00BUCK 4th & 9 at BUCK 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 8:57BUCK 4th & 21 at BUCK 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 8:05TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 48, up 15Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 2:46BUCK 4th & 10 at TEM 20, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call2.6%75% to makePunt2.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:10BUCK 4th & 8 at BUCK 27, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q3 15:00BUCK 4th & 1 at TEM 34, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%71% to convertField goal2.7%−0.447% to makePunt2.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:48BUCK 4th & 6 at TEM 11, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call3.4%87% to makePunt1.8%−1.6average punt
- Q3 5:59BUCK 4th & 5 at BUCK 43, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q4 14:53BUCK 4th & 10 at BUCK 38, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q4 13:45TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 38, up 15Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 12:19BUCK 4th & 2 at TEM 5, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.8%51% to convertField goal3.4%−0.492% to makePunt1.0%−2.9average punt
- Q4 5:19BUCK 4th & 3 at BUCK 32, down 15Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:41TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 33, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.431% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q4 1:13BUCK 4th & 2 at BUCK 31, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.7%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BUCK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:41TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:14TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:01TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:45TEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:13BUCK Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:1999% → 99%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+23
99.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 23 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+11
99.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 11 yds to the Buckn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
99.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 16 yds to the Buckn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+11
99.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 11 yds to the Buckn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
99.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Logan Bitikofer pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 5 yds to the Buckn 30Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the Buckn 10 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Buckn Logan BitikoferSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+4
99.0%
Logan Bitikofer pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 4 yds to the Buckn 14Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+2
99.0%
Alex Pechin punt for 65 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for 2 yds to the Temp 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD11 plays · 77 yds · 4:3299% → 99%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
98.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 3 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+12
98.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 12 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+24
98.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 24 yds to the Buckn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.9%
RUSSO,Anthony pass complete to MACK,Branden for 6 yards to the BUCKNELL10, out-of-bounds (Deary, Sterling), PENALTY BUCKNELL illegal participation 5 yards to the BUCKNELL11, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 5:14
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
Alex Pechin punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 23 , Isaiah Wright returns for 2 yds to the Temp 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5TD6 plays · 77 yds · 2:2399% → 99%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
98.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+37
98.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 37 yds to the Buckn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
98.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 27 yds to the Buckn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:011% → 1%
TEMDrive 7TD9 plays · 96 yds · 3:0299% → 100%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+24
98.9%
Anthony Russo run for 9 yds to the Temp 13 for a 1ST down BUCKNELL Penalty, personal foul (Simeon Page) to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
98.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 6 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 8 yds to the Temp 49Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+23
99.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 23 yds to the Buckn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 12 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 2:481% → 1%
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.5%
Logan Bitikofer pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 15 yds to the Buckn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.4%
Logan Bitikofer pass complete to John McGuire for 2 yds to the Buckn 42Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-9
99.4%
Logan Bitikofer sacked by Ifeanyi Maijeh for a loss of 9 yards to the Buckn 33Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 21
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Alex Pechin punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for no gain to the Temp 34 Isaiah Wright fumbled, recovered by TempSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9INT TD2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
BUCKDrive 10TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+7
97.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds to the Temp 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+9
97.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 9 yds to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+4
97.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 4 yds to the Temp 48Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+1
97.8%
Adam Barry punt for 33 yds , Jared Cooper returns for 1 yd to the Buckn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 12FG9 plays · 60 yds · 2:502% → 2%
TEMDrive 13TD7 plays · 81 yds · 1:3998% → 98%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
97.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 3 yds to the Temp 22Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 3 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
97.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 5 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+11
97.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 11 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
97.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 51 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 0:522% → 3%
Q2 0:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
97.4%
Alex Pechin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 16FG15 plays · 64 yds · 5:123% → 3%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
97.3%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Dominic Lyles for 8 yds to the Buckn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
97.3%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 5 yds to the Buckn 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+18
97.3%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Chad Freshnock for 18 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
97.1%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Dominic Lyles for 9 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
97.0%
Earle, Tarrin pass incomplete to Walier, Steven, PENALTY TEM roughing passer (KELLY,DeAndre) 15 yards to the TEM15, 1ST DOWN BUCKNELL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
96.9%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 4 yds to the Temp 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD9 plays · 71 yds · 3:2997% → 97%
Q3 9:40
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+2
97.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 2 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
97.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 2 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+24
97.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 24 yds to the Buckn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
97.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 18 yds to the Buckn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
97.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Aaron Jarman for 10 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
96.8%
Bitikofer, L. pass incomplete to Sanders, B., PENALTY TEM personal foul (BANKS,Khris) 15 yards to the BUCKNELL38, 1ST DOWN BUCKNELL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
96.5%
Logan Bitikofer pass complete to Jared Cooper for 2 yds to the Buckn 40Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-8
96.6%
Logan Bitikofer sacked by Karamo Dioubate for a loss of 8 yards to the Buckn 32Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+11
97.0%
Logan Bitikofer pass complete to Jared Cooper for 11 yds to the Buckn 43Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+13
96.7%
Alex Pechin punt for 52 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for 13 yds to the Temp 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19TD10 plays · 82 yds · 3:3898% → 98%
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
97.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 8 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
97.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 7 yds to the Temp 40Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
97.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 4 yds to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
97.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 13 yds to the Buckn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
TEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
BUCKDrive 22DOWNS16 plays · 73 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 12:19
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+10
96.6%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Dominic Lyles for 10 yds to the Buckn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
96.4%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Jake Wilson for 4 yds to the Buckn 42Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
96.3%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Chad Freshnock for 7 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
95.6%
Earle, Tarrin pass incomplete to Holmes, Connor (WINSTON,DaeSean), PENALTY TEM personal foul (MASON,Ty) 13 yards to the TEM13, 1ST DOWN BUCKNELL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
95.6%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Steven Walier for 3 yds to the Temp 10Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+1
96.1%
Tarrin Earle pass complete to Steven Walier for 1 yd to the Temp 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23TD3 plays · 95 yds · 1:0898% → 98%
BUCKDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
97.0%
Alex Pechin punt for 50 yds , Jeremy Jennings returns for 1 yd to the Temp 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 3:41
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+1
97.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kadas Reams for 1 yd to the Temp 30Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+3
97.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kyle Dobbins for 3 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+3
97.7%
Adam Barry punt for 47 yds , Jared Cooper returns for 3 yds to the Buckn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+2.5
TD · Q2 8:13
BUCKNELL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Temp 8
-1.5
TD · Q2 11:45
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 12 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
+0.5