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HC

Holy Cross 7 at Navy 45

NAVY
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadHC aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreHC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:45 · Owen White punt for 45 yds , Jon Jon Roberts returns for a loss of 1 yard to the HCrss 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+12.4Home team on offense+32.5Score differential+28.5Garbage-time factor+11.7Blowout margin+14.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:29: CJ Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:48: Miles Alexander run for 16 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK) — HC win probability +5.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:10: Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +2.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:56: Nelson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:27: Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HC made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 10:42HC 4th & 13 at HC 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:56NAVY 4th & 10 at HC 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56HC 4th & 12 at NAVY 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:21HC 4th & 3 at NAVY 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:56HC 4th & 14 at NAVY 35, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:27HC 4th & 1 at NAVY 43, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:52HC 4th & 10 at HC 41, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:45NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 46, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:56HC 4th & 1 at HC 17, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:39NAVY 4th & 4 at HC 44, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:39NAVY 4th & 1 at HC 29, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6HC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:42NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:29NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:48HC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:56NAVY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:27NAVY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:52NAVY Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1892% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.8%
CJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
91.8%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
91.8%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
91.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 12 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
91.8%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Chance Warren for 12 yds to the HCrss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
91.8%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the HCrss 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+31
91.8%
Myles Fells run for 31 yds to the HCrss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.8%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the HCrss 4Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.4%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
91.1%
Miles Alexander run for a loss of 4 yards to the HCrss 21Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
91.2%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Tenio AyeniSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+1
91.2%
Connor Degenhardt run for 1 yd to the HCrss 22Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
91.3%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0891% → 91%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
91.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the HCrss 47Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
91.2%
CJ Williams run for 8 yds to the HCrss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
91.2%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the HCrss 36Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+9
91.2%
Myles Fells run for 9 yds to the HCrss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
91.2%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the HCrss 24Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-3
91.2%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 3 yards to the HCrss 27Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
90.6%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
90.7%
Bijan Nichols 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
90.4%
Miles Alexander run for 3 yds to the HCrss 15Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
90.4%
Connor Degenhardt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+32
90.5%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Derek Mountain for 32 yds to the HCrss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.1%
Connor Degenhardt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
90.2%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Miles Alexander for a loss of 3 yards to the HCrss 44Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-6
90.4%
Connor Degenhardt sacked by Cameron Kinley for a loss of 6 yards to the HCrss 38Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 19
OWN 38
+15
90.6%
Wilkinson,Cody punt 33 yards to the NAVY29, SPRINGER, Jacob return to the NAVY29, fumble by SPRINGER, Jacob recovered by HC Hicks,Josh at NAVY27, PENALTY NAVY personal foul (BROWN, Tony) 15 yards to the NAVY47, 1ST DOWN HC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.0%
Connor Degenhardt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
90.1%
Connor Degenhardt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
90.3%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Tenio Ayeni, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
90.5%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:1490% → 90%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
89.9%
CJ Williams run for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+14
89.8%
Tazh Maloy run for 14 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
89.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
90.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
89.9%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Corey Stefanik for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 33 Malcolm Perry fumbled, recovered by HCrss Noah Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2311% → 11%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
88.7%
Peter Oliver run for no gain to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
88.7%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 10 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
88.6%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Derek Mountain for 6 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+4
88.6%
Peter Oliver run for 4 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
88.6%
Peter Oliver run for 4 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
88.6%
Connor Degenhardt run for 3 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
88.9%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Spencer GilliamSimilar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
88.6%
Derek Ng 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:5289% → 94%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
88.8%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
88.9%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+11
88.6%
CJ Williams run for 11 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
89.3%
Myles Fells run for 16 yds to the HCrss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
89.5%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the HCrss 40Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+24
89.5%
Tazh Maloy run for 24 yds to the HCrss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
93.5%
CJ Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:418% → 14%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Miles Alexander run for no gain to the HCrss 25Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.6%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 6 yds to the HCrss 31Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
92.3%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Dominik Thomas for 8 yds to the HCrss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
92.2%
Miles Alexander run for 6 yds to the HCrss 45Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-5
91.9%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the HCrss 40Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+18
92.3%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Spencer Gilliam for 18 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
91.6%
Connor Degenhardt run for 8 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-1
91.3%
Miles Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
91.6%
Miles Alexander run for 5 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
91.4%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 5 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
91.3%
Miles Alexander run for 5 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
91.3%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 4 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
85.8%
Miles Alexander run for 16 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:3888% → 93%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
88.3%
CJ Williams run for 16 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
89.0%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, Defensive offside (Matt Cedeno) to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 5
OWN 46
-1
89.1%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
90.3%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+7
89.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the HCrss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
90.6%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 44 yds to the HCrss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.7%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the HCrss 1Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
92.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the HCrss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Miles Alexander run for 2 yds to the HCrss 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-6
93.3%
Connor Degenhardt sacked by Evan Fochtman for a loss of 6 yards to the HCrss 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-7
93.5%
Connor Degenhardt sacked by Nizaire Cromartie for a loss of 7 yards to the HCrss 20 Connor Degenhardt fumbled, recovered by Navy Nizaire Cromartie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:3494% → 98%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
93.7%
Tazh Maloy run for 8 yds to the HCrss 12Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+4
93.7%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 4 yds to the HCrss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
93.7%
CJ Williams run for 5 yds to the HCrss 3Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
93.7%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the HCrss 1Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.4%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 7 yds to the HCrss 32Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
97.2%
Connor Degenhardt run for 7 yds to the HCrss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.2%
Miles Alexander run for 4 yds to the HCrss 43Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
97.2%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 8 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
97.2%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Derek Mountain for 18 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
96.9%
Miles Alexander run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
97.0%
Connor Degenhardt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
97.2%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Tenio Ayeni, broken up by Elan NashSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 9
OPP 30
-5
97.3%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+10
97.4%
Connor Degenhardt run for 10 yds to the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2598% → 100%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.7%
CJ Williams run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
97.7%
CJ Williams run for 18 yds to the HCrss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
97.9%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the HCrss 45Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+6
97.9%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 6 yds to the HCrss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
97.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau for 29 yds to the HCrss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
97.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the HCrss 2Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 1%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Ayir AsanteSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+18
99.6%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Ayir Asante for 18 yds to the HCrss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.6%
Connor Degenhardt run for 3 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
99.6%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Derek Mountain for 6 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
99.4%
Peter Oliver run for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
99.4%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.8%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
99.8%
Tazh Maloy run for 9 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
99.8%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Chance Warren for 10 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.8%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the HCrss 49Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+49
99.8%
Nelson Smith run for 49 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
99.9%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Jack Jewell for 18 yds to the HCrss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Tenio Ayeni, broken up by Dave TolentinoSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Jack JewellSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Spencer GilliamSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 34 yds, downed at the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Tyger Goslin run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
99.9%
Tyreek King-El run for 11 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Tyreek King-El run for 6 yds to the HCrss 47Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-2
99.9%
Tyger Goslin run for a loss of 2 yards to the HCrss 47 Tyger Goslin fumbled,Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-2
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for a loss of 2 yards to the HCrss 49Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 6
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
NAVY Penalty, DL (-5 Yards) to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+45
99.8%
Owen White punt for 45 yds , Jon Jon Roberts returns for a loss of 1 yard to the HCrss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.9%
Miles Alexander run for 3 yds to the HCrss 11Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Connor Degenhardt pass incomplete to Spencer GilliamSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+6
99.9%
Connor Degenhardt pass complete to Tenio Ayeni for 6 yds to the HCrss 17Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 1
OWN 17
-7
99.9%
Cody Wilkinson punt for 50 yds , Jacob Springer returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20END OF GAME
14 plays · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
99.9%
Garrett Winn run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.9%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the HCrss 46Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the HCrss 44Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
99.9%
James Harris II run for no gain to the HCrss 44Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Garrett Winn run for 6 yds to the HCrss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the HCrss 36Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-2
99.9%
Tyger Goslin run for a loss of 2 yards to the HCrss 38Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Justin Smith run for 9 yds to the HCrss 29Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Garrett Winn run for 3 yds to the HCrss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the HCrss 24Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+2
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for 2 yds to the HCrss 22Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+9
99.9%
Dalen Morris run for 9 yds to the HCrss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
99.9%
Tyger Goslin run for a loss of 3 yards to the HCrss 16Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+7
99.9%
James Harris II run for 7 yds to the HCrss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:48
Miles Alexander run for 16 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK)
-5.4
TD · Q2 7:29
CJ Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+4
TD · Q3 10:56
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com