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WIS

Wisconsin 49 at South Florida 0

USF
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:05 · Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the SOUFLA 48 WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jason Erdmann) to the Wisc 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−3.6Score differential−1.1Pregame prior−22.5Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:58: Matt Henningsen 16 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +4.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:37: Jonathan Taylor 36 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +4.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:44: Jack Coan pass complete to Jack Dunn for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 44 — WIS win probability +2.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:02: Jonathan Taylor 12 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:00: Jonathan Taylor 38 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:39USF 4th & 10 at USF 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:37USF 4th & 6 at USF 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:05WIS 4th & 1 at USF 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.2%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:33WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:07USF 4th & 17 at USF 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:12USF 4th & 8 at USF 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:19USF 4th & 2 at USF 33, down 28
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:13USF 4th & 10 at USF 35, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:11WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 41, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:18USF 4th & 1 at USF 20, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:09WIS 4th & 5 at USF 12, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:37USF 4th & 3 at USF 39, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:40USF 4th & 8 at USF 20, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:08WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 46, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:32USF 4th & 14 at USF 29, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:31WIS 4th & 15 at USF 37, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:36USF 4th & 11 at WIS 26, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:48WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:58WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:37WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:00WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:06WIS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:28WIS Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:5677% → 77%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
22.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
23.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
23.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
23.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
23.9%
A.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+13
24.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 13 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
24.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to John Chenal for 12 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
23.2%
Jonathan Taylor 37 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0424% → 24%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
23.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
23.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Jernard PhillipsSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
23.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
23.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
23.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5076% → 76%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
23.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 10 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
23.9%
Nakia Watson run for 9 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
23.7%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
23.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
24.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Logan Bruss) to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
24.2%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+3
24.4%
Garrett Groshek run for 3 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1824% → 24%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
24.4%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
24.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 5
OWN 15
-5
24.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (William Atterbury) to the SFla 10Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+12
24.3%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jernard Phillips for 12 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
24.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
24.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 3 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
24.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
24.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 34 yds, downed at the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 8 yds · 3:5776% → 74%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
24.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
24.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 6 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
24.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-12
24.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the SOUFLA 48 WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jason Erdmann) to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to John ChenalSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
24.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 12 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
24.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-2
23.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-6
24.3%
Jack Coan sacked by Greg Reaves for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
25.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 31 yds, downed at the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:2325% → 20%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
25.2%
Trevon Sands run for 1 yd to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-16
20.4%
Matt Henningsen 16 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:5120% → 20%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
20.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Stafford) to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
20.3%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
20.3%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+3
20.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 3 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
20.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 37 yds , Jack Dunn returns for no gain to the Wisc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:2281% → 86%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
19.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+13
18.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 13 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
18.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Adam KrumholzSimilar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
13.7%
Jonathan Taylor 36 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4814% → 15%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
14.4%
Barnett, Blake pass complete to St. Felix, Randall for 8 yards to the SOUFLA34, PENALTY SOUFLA ineligible downfield on pass (Wilcox, Mitchell) 5 yards to the SOUFLA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+1
14.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Bryce Miller for 1 yd to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+9
14.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Bryce Miller for 9 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+11
13.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 11 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
15.0%
Trevon Sands run for 1 yd to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
14.5%
Blake Barnett pass intercepted Eric Burrell return for 16 yds to the SFla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3887% → 87%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
13.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+7
12.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds Jake Ferguson fumbled, forced by Patrick Macon, recovered by SFla KJ Sails , return for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2314% → 13%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
14.3%
Blake Barnett sacked by Matt Henningsen for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 18
OWN 35
0
13.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Jernard PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+10
13.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 10 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
13.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:0387% → 95%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
12.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 21Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
12.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 5 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+16
12.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 16 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
11.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+9
11.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 9 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
9.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jack Dunn for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+8
8.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 8 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+8
8.7%
Garrett Groshek run for 8 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
8.4%
Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+17
8.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 17 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
7.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
5.0%
Jonathan Taylor 12 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:345% → 5%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
4.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Jernard PhillipsSimilar
Q3 14:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
4.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q3 14:19
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+31
4.8%
Spencer Shrader punt for 36 yds, downed at the SOUFLA 31 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:1194% → 97%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
6.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 17 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
4.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 9 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+38
2.6%
Jonathan Taylor 38 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:412% → 2%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.4%
Blake Barnett run for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.4%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
2.3%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
2.3%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+8
2.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 42 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 8 yds to the Wisc 43 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5498% → 98%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
2.3%
Jack Coan sacked by Kirk Livingstone for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+8
2.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+4
2.1%
Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
2.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 48 yds, downed at the SFla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:472% → 2%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
1.9%
Blake Barnett run for 1 yd to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 12
-5
1.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 7Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 14
OWN 7
+13
1.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Trevon Sands for 13 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
1.8%
Trevon Sands run for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 1
OWN 20
-3
1.6%
Trevon Sands run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 17 Trevon Sands fumbled, recovered by SFla Trevon SandsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0199% → 98%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
1.5%
Nakia Watson run for 8 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 9
0
1.3%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the SFla 9Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-3
1.3%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
1.9%
Collin Larsh 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
1.3%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 12 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
1.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
1.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+7
1.1%
Blake Barnett run for 7 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+1
1.1%
Spencer Shrader run for 1 yd to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
1.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
1.0%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+11
0.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 11 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
0.7%
Nakia Watson 27 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:211% → 0%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
0.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 13Similar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+1
0.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 14
OWN 14
0
0.5%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+6
0.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Bryce Miller for 6 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+13
0.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 43 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
50
0
0.7%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 10
50
-3
0.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-1
0.6%
Jack Coan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 14
OWN 46
+17
0.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 38 yds , KJ Sails returns for 17 yds to the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
0.4%
Blake Barnett sacked by Jaylan Franklin for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+3
0.4%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+1
0.3%
Blake Barnett run for 1 yd to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 14
OWN 29
+41
0.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 54 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 41 yds to the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
0.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 9 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 1
OPP 33
-1
0.4%
Jack Coan run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+2
0.4%
John Chenal run for 2 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for no gain to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-7
0.3%
Jack Coan sacked by Patrick Macon for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+2
0.3%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 15
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Anthony Lotti punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:200% → 0%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
0.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 13 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Blake Barnett pass intercepted Collin Wilder return for no gain to the SFla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.2%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
0.2%
Nakia Watson run for 17 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
0.2%
Bradrick Shaw 15 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28MISSED FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:370% → 0%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kevin Purlett for 15 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
0.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+19
0.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 19 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
0.1%
McCloud, Jordan pass sacked for loss of 11 yards to the SOUFLA49 (Franklin, Jaylan), PENALTY WISCONSIN personal foul (Franklin, Jaylan) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
0.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 6 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-6
0.1%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Izayah Green-May for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
0.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 6
OPP 21
-5
0.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
0.1%
Coby Weiss 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
0.1%
Nakia Watson run for 8 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
0.1%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
0.1%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
0.1%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Wisc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:58
Matt Henningsen 16 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Larsh Kick)
-4.9
TD · Q2 10:37
Jonathan Taylor 36 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Collin Larsh Kick)
-4.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:44
Jack Coan pass complete to Jack Dunn for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 44
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com