Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 14 at Cincinnati 24

CIN
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:11 · James Smith punt for 59 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Home team on offense+24.7Pregame prior+0.4Garbage-time factor+15.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.0Score differential+3.2Blowout margin−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:23: Demetric Felton 75 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick) — UCLA win probability +7.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:44: Michael Warren II 12 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick) — CIN win probability +10.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:40: Chase Cota 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick) — UCLA win probability +15.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:40: JJ Molson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — CIN win probability +5.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 14:51: Michael Warren II 21 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Sam Crosa Kick) — CIN win probability +16.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:22CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:07UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:07CIN 4th & 4 at UCLA 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:40UCLA 4th & 14 at UCLA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:13CIN 4th & 9 at UCLA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:58UCLA 4th & 22 at UCLA 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:43CIN 4th & 13 at UCLA 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39UCLA 4th & 17 at UCLA 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−6.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:15UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:03CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:40CIN 4th & 3 at UCLA 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:11CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:47UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 20, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:09CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:23UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:44CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:40UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:51CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:2558% → 58%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.7%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
57.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jakari Robinson) to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
57.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
57.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
57.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
57.7%
James Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5742% → 43%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
57.7%
Demetric Felton run for 7 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+7
57.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Martell Irby for 7 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
57.5%
Demetric Felton run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
57.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+20
57.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 5 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'von Hicks) to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
57.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 16 yds to the Cincy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
57.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-12
57.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 17 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ja'von HicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:4458% → 62%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
58.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+15
57.9%
Michael Warren II run for 15 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
58.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jakari Robinson) to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+3
57.9%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+52
57.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 52 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
58.9%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-5
58.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Lorenz Metz) to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
61.7%
Josiah Deguara 16 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3639% → 38%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
61.0%
Demetric Felton run for 6 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
61.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
61.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Martell IrbySimilar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
61.7%
Wade Lees punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:5562% → 64%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
61.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 5 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
62.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+8
62.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 8 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
62.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
63.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+17
62.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 17 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
64.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 15 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
64.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
64.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+2
64.5%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
64.0%
Sam Crosa 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1037% → 35%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
63.5%
Demetric Felton run for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
63.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 7 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
63.8%
Demetric Felton run for 10 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
63.3%
Demetric Felton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-3
63.9%
Demetric Felton run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
64.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
65.2%
Wade Lees punt for 25 yds, downed at the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:5266% → 68%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
66.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
66.2%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+15
66.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 15 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
67.1%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+2
67.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+11
67.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 11 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
68.3%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
68.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
67.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
68.1%
Sam Crosa 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4431% → 38%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Demetric Felton run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+75
61.6%
Demetric Felton 75 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:4562% → 65%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
62.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 5 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
62.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
63.1%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
63.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 9 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
64.4%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
50
+11
64.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
65.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+10
65.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds to the UCLA 27 Gerrid Doaks fumbled, forced by Elijah Gates, recovered by UCLA Jason HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:0238% → 36%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
61.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 17
OWN 20
0
62.4%
Demetric Felton run for no gain to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 17
OWN 20
0
63.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 17
OWN 20
-5
64.1%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Martell Irby) to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 22
OWN 15
0
64.1%
Wade Lees punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:3265% → 60%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
64.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 15 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
65.3%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
65.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
63.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 8
OPP 38
-5
61.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
60.0%
James Smith punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · -7 yds · 0:5138% → 34%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
61.6%
Demetric Felton run for 1 yd to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-1
62.0%
Demetric Felton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 10
OWN 10
-5
62.7%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Sean Rhyan) to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 15
OWN 5
0
63.0%
Demetric Felton run for no gain to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 15
OWN 5
-2
63.9%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the UCLA 3Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 17
OWN 3
+25
66.1%
Wade Lees punt for 42 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 25 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:2466% → 63%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
66.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
66.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 15 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+3
68.3%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the UCLA 2Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 0
OWN 34
+81
63.2%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Jay Shaw return for 66 yds to the Cincy 34 UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jay Shaw) to the Cincy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
59.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Michael Pitts for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15INT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:3338% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
62.2%
UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.5%
Thompson-Robinson, Dorian pass incomplete, PENALTY UCLA illegal formation 5 yards to the UCLA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
61.8%
Demetric Felton run for 2 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
62.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
63.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Perry Young return for no gain to the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2867% → 77%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
66.7%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 1
OPP 21
-1
66.8%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
65.4%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
66.5%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
77.1%
Michael Warren II 12 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5525% → 23%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.8%
Demetric Felton run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
74.2%
Demetric Felton run for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
74.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
75.4%
UCLA Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
76.8%
Wade Lees punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0676% → 75%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
75.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
76.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
75.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-8
75.4%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Odua Isibor for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
74.6%
James Smith punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:1025% → 43%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
75.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 39 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
72.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
72.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+12
74.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'von Hicks) to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
72.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
72.7%
Demetric Felton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 7Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
56.8%
Chase Cota 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3464% → 85%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.9%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
63.9%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
62.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 12 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
66.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+10
65.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 10 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
68.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 13 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
69.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
69.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 7 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
69.8%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-5
68.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Lorenz Metz) to the UCLA 21Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
84.6%
Michael Warren II 21 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0017% → 18%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.1%
Demetric Felton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
82.1%
Demetric Felton run for 5 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
82.1%
Demetric Felton run for 4 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
81.6%
Martell Irby run for 2 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
81.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
82.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for 15 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:2085% → 90%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
85.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 19 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
86.8%
Michael Warren II run for 11 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
87.0%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-2
87.5%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
86.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+1
89.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 1 yd to the UCLA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23FUMBLE
15 plays · 33 yds · 4:1913% → 11%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
87.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
88.2%
Demetric Felton run for 7 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
86.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
87.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 14 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
86.7%
Demetric Felton run for 7 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
87.1%
Martell Irby run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+7
87.5%
Martell Irby run for 7 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
86.8%
Demetric Felton run for 7 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-5
86.4%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Sean Rhyan) to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
86.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Chase CotaSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+6
88.4%
Demetric Felton run for 6 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+5
88.7%
Thompson-Robinson, Dorian pass incomplete, PENALTY CINCINNATI offside 5 yards to the CINCINNATI18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
87.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-22
89.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 22 yards to the Cincy 40 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by Cincy Curtis Brooks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4994% → 96%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.9%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-3
94.8%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+2
95.4%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
95.6%
James Smith punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:193% → 3%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Chase CotaSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
97.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Chase CotaSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for no gain to the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1597% → 98%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
96.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+9
97.4%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 11Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 13Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:51
Michael Warren II 21 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Sam Crosa Kick)
+16.2
TD · Q3 5:40
Chase Cota 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)
-15.9
TD · Q3 11:44
Michael Warren II 12 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com