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FRES

Fresno State 16 at San José State 17

SJSU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:27 · Blake Cusick punt for 36 yds, downed at the SJSt 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense−12.2Pregame prior+4.7Garbage-time factor−2.2Score differential−5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:08: Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +4.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:43: Josh Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:47: Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47 — FRES win probability +11.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:11: DeJon Packer run for 10 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 8 (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +45.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:46: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 46 — SJSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 12:30SJSU 4th & 5 at FRES 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:13SJSU 4th & 5 at FRES 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−4.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:08SJSU 4th & 1 at FRES 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−1.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−6.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:11FRES 4th & 13 at SJSU 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:27FRES 4th & 3 at SJSU 43, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−2.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:11SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 8, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:52FRES 4th & 1 at SJSU 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−12.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:35FRES 4th & 9 at SJSU 41, up 13
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:17FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 43, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:17SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 43, down 6
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:09FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 25, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:28SJSU 4th & 9 at FRES 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−2.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:14SJSU 4th & 14 at SJSU 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−5.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:48FRES 4th & 1 at SJSU 48, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:52SJSU 4th & 1 at FRES 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−7.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−9.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:09FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 47, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%−1.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:50FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.2%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:49FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:08FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:43SJSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:11SJSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−6.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:3058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
58.1%
Josh Love run for 15 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
58.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 5 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
58.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
58.1%
ROBINSON, Kaire rush up middle for 2 yards to the SJSU46 (RICE, Justin;IAKOPO, Keiti), PENALTY FS offside 5 yards to the SJSU49, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
58.1%
Josh Love sacked by Alex Cruz for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 42 Josh Love fumbled, recovered by SJSt Josh Love , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+5
58.3%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 5 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+7
58.3%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 7 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
58.3%
Alex Galland punt for 44 yds, downed at the FrsSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 3:4342% → 45%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
58.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 11 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
58.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
58.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+11
58.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
58.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+9
58.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 9 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
57.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 9 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+6
57.8%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
54.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 38 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
55.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 5 yds to the SJSt 30 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
55.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 2 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
55.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 11 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
55.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Randy JordanSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
55.4%
Alex Galland punt for 28 yds, downed at the FrsSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:5846% → 51%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
54.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+55
54.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 55 yds to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:5551% → 51%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
51.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+50
51.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 50 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
52.1%
DeJon Packer run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+1
52.1%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
50.0%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
49.6%
Josh Love run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
50.6%
Matt Mercurio 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:5250% → 52%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
50.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Cam SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
50.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+8
50.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 8 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
49.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 15 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
48.7%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
48.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
48.4%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted Jay Lenard return for no gain to the SJSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:0649% → 47%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
48.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 9 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 17
0
49.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+7
48.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 7 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
48.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
47.9%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+44
47.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 44 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
50.3%
DeJon Packer run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
50.3%
Isaiah Hamilton run for no gain to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
49.5%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
47.0%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 2:5155% → 56%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
45.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+11
45.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 11 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
45.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+7
44.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
43.7%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to GRIM, Derrion, PENALTY FS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+2
44.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+23
44.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 23 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
43.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-9
42.9%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 38 Jorge Reyna fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
43.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric Wheatfall FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
44.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 29 yds, downed at the SJSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9SF
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:4642% → 40%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
42.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 1 yd to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
42.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to DeJon Packer, broken up by Justin RiceSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 9
OWN 10
-10
39.5%
Josh Love sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
50
+4
39.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
39.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 5 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-2
39.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
40.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 yds, downed at the SJSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4139% → 38%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
39.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
39.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Isaiah Hamilton, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 8
0
37.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Evan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 9
OWN 8
+35
37.7%
Alex Galland punt for 47 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 35 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0664% → 68%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
36.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
36.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
36.2%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
36.2%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 8 Jorge Reyna fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Josh HokitSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
30.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 7 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
31.8%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
36.3%
DeJon Packer run for 5 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2567% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
32.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
31.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 17 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
31.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
29.6%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-6
29.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
29.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 28 yds, downed at the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:4133% → 50%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+29
32.7%
DeJon Packer run for 29 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
34.0%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+13
33.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 13 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
34.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+21
35.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 21 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
35.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.1%
Josh Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:2658% → 59%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
41.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
42.0%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to POPE, Zane, PENALTY SJSU roughing passer (OSUNA, Jesse) 15 yards to the FS44, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
37.2%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
36.4%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the SJSt 49Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-8
37.2%
Jorge Reyna sacked by E.J. Ane for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
41.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 21 yds, downed at the SJSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1243% → 42%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
43.2%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+8
42.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
44.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to DeJon PackerSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
42.4%
Alex Galland punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0261% → 61%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
38.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
39.0%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the FrsSt 20 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+5
38.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (Viliami Fehoko) to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
36.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 25 yds , Brandon Ezell returns for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3445% → 40%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
50
-6
44.9%
Josh Love sacked by Keiti Iakopo for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 16
OWN 44
0
41.1%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+7
39.5%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 7 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
39.7%
Alex Galland punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4863% → 64%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
37.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+7
37.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
36.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
34.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-5
32.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
36.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0940% → 36%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
39.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 6 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-10
41.0%
Josh Love sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
35.7%
Alex Galland punt for 24 yds, downed at the FrsSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1271% → 71%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
28.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
28.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 3
50
+2
28.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 2 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
29.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:4936% → 30%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
35.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 2 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
35.6%
LOVE, Josh pass intercepted by MOSBY, Arron at the SJSU30, MOSBY, Arron return to the SJSU27, PENALTY FS pass interference 5 yards to the SJSU27, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
36.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-1
38.4%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 31Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+23
35.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 23 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
40.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 5 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
41.0%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
40.5%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-4
29.7%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3882% → 81%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
18.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
18.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
18.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jamal GlaspieSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
19.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brandon Ezell at the SJSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:5324% → 75%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
24.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 9 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+6
25.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
24.1%
LOVE, Josh pass complete to WALKER, Tre for 9 yards to the SJSU41 (JORDAN, Randy), PENALTY SJSU illegal block (ROBINSON, Kaire) 15 yards to the SJSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+16
22.9%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 16 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
23.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+29
21.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 29 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
29.2%
DeJon Packer run for 28 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
75.0%
DeJon Packer run for 10 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 8 (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2138% → 32%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
62.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 14 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
58.5%
Ben Wooldridge run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
57.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for no gain to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-1
58.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
68.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Emoryie Edwards, broken up by Ethan AguayoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
83.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-6
81.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:11
DeJon Packer run for 10 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 8 (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+45.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.3
TD · Q3 9:43
Josh Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com