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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:50 · Levi Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q4 13:08: Cooper Rothe 26 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +3.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 9:41: Christian Mallard run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 — AF win probability +8.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- FG · Q4 2:23: Cooper Rothe 23 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +5.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:23: Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the AFA 25 — AF win probability +6.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:04: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 15:00AF 4th & 9 at AF 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snapGo for it81.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q1 11:25WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.8%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%average punt
- Q2 11:28WYO 4th & 11 at AF 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.6%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.0%average punt
- Q2 8:37WYO 4th & 8 at AF 28, down 7Close callWent for it · 20.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.2%−0.334% to convertField goal20.5%60% to makePunt17.4%−3.2average punt
- Q2 0:50AF 4th & 8 at midfield, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snapGo for it79.3%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.5%average punt
- Q3 5:50AF 4th & 4 at WYO 12, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snapGo for it82.8%45% to convertField goalTheir call82.6%−0.386% to makePunt76.1%−6.7average punt
- Q3 5:50WYO 4th & 2 at AF 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.4%57% to convertField goal14.8%−1.654% to makePunt13.5%−2.9average punt
- Q4 13:08WYO 4th & 4 at AF 9, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snapGo for it13.9%43% to convertField goalTheir call13.4%−0.589% to makePunt6.8%−7.1average punt
- Q4 13:08AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it87.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.7%−1.7average punt
- Q4 5:31AF 4th & 9 at WYO 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snapGo for it88.8%−1.025% to convertField goalTheir call89.8%89% to makePunt83.0%−6.7average punt
- Q4 2:23WYO 4th & 5 at AF 6, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%33% to convertField goalTheir call6.1%−0.291% to makePunt4.3%−2.1average punt
- Q4 1:59WYO 4th & 21 at WYO 28, down 14Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−<0.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.2%average punt
- Q4 0:32AF 4th & 13 at WYO 23, up 14Close callWent for it · 98.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%−0.519% to convertField goal98.2%70% to makePunt97.0%−1.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 14:56AF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.6%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:04AF Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%−0.497% to makeGo for two96.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAFDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-2
81.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
AFDrive 3TD18 plays · 73 yds · 8:4280% → 81%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
79.9%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 12 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
78.4%
HAMMOND III, DJ pass incomplete to SANDERS, Geraud, PENALTY WYO pass interference (HEARN, Azizi) 8 yards to the WYO2, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2820% → 19%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
79.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 16 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+13
81.2%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 13 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
81.5%
HAMMOND III, DJ pass incomplete to WATERS, Ben, PENALTY AF holding 10 yards to the AF48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-1
80.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 46 TEAM fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Wyom Esaias GandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6FUMBLE8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 8:37
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
79.7%
Levi Williams pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 15 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-10
79.2%
WILLIAMS, Levi pass complete to WELCH, Treyton for 17 yards to the AF12 (BUGG III, Milto), PENALTY WYO holding (VELAZQUEZ, A.) 10 yards to the AF39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 19
OPP 39
+11
80.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Brett Brenton for 11 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 8
OPP 28
-5
80.1%
Levi Williams sacked by Jake Ksiazek for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 21 Levi Williams fumbled, recovered by AFA Garrett Kauppila , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2081% → 81%
Q2 0:50
4TH & 8
50
+11
81.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 37 yds , Austin Conway returns for 11 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9INT5 plays · 44 yds · 0:0020% → 22%
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+15
77.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass intercepted Jeremy Fejedelem return for 15 yds to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FG13 plays · 41 yds · 7:1082% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11FG18 plays · 66 yds · 7:4216% → 19%
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (Mosese Fifita) to the Wyom 30Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
84.9%
Levi Williams pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 6 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
84.1%
Levi Williams pass complete to Austin Conway for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
83.2%
Levi Williams pass incomplete to Xazavian Valladay, broken up by Garrett KauppilaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
AFDrive 14FG9 plays · 51 yds · 4:1089% → 92%
WYODrive 15FG7 plays · 35 yds · 2:5810% → 15%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+30
90.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Josh Harshman for 30 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-5
89.1%
VALLADAY, X. rush for 1 yard to the AF7 (JACKSON, Jordan;FIFITA, Mosese), PENALTY WYO illegal formation 5 yards to the AF13, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:1993% → 98%
WYODrive 17DOWNS5 plays · -9 yds · 0:003% → 2%
AFDrive 18DOWNS7 plays · -5 yds · 0:4599% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:41
Christian Mallard run for 2 yds to the AFA 42
+8.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:23
Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the AFA 25
+6.6
FG · Q4 2:23
Cooper Rothe 23 yd FG GOOD
-5.4