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USU

Utah State 38 at New Mexico 25

UNM
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:32 · Tyson Dyer punt for 51 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 13 yds to the UthSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense−2.9Pregame prior−22.6Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:07: Gerold Bright run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +9.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:15: Trae Hall run for 1 yd for a TD (Donovan Murphree PAT BLOCKED) — UNM win probability +9.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:51: Trae Hall pass complete to Marcus Williams for 19 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Aaron Molina) to the UthSt 18 (Donovan Murphree PAT MISSED) — UNM win probability +8.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:43: Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 10 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +10.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:32: Trae Hall run for 7 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +9.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USU 4th & 10 at USU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:38UNM 4th & 16 at UNM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:20USU 4th & 6 at USU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:31UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:44USU 4th & 10 at USU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:13UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:32UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  8. Q1 2:22USU 4th & 4 at UNM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:55USU 4th & 7 at UNM 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:44UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:23USU 4th & 5 at USU 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:29USU 4th & 8 at USU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:37UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 33, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00USU 4th & 5 at UNM 38, up 20
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:11USU 4th & 8 at USU 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:59UNM 4th & 9 at USU 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:21USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:35UNM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:44USU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:07USU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:23USU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:15UNM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:51UNM Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:43USU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:32UNM Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
23.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 14:38
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+5
23.3%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
23.3%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 14:38
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-7
23.3%
Trae Hall sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 14:38
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
23.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
24.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
24.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 2 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
24.5%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+2
24.6%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 48 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
24.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
24.9%
Trae Hall run for 7 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
25.0%
Trae Hall run for no gain to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
24.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
24.9%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+3
24.8%
Tyson Dyer punt for 53 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 3 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
26.1%
Gerold Bright run for 9 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+3
26.0%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.1%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
26.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
26.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.5%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 33 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 6 yds to the NMex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
27.5%
Bobby Cole run for no gain to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
27.4%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
27.0%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
26.8%
Tyson Dyer punt for 39 yds, downed at the UthSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 2:2073% → 76%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
27.2%
Gerold Bright run for 9 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+4
27.0%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
27.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 4 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
27.0%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+8
26.9%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+42
26.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 42 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
26.2%
Jordan Nathan run for 10 yds to the NMex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 5 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4625% → 24%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
25.2%
Emmanuel Logan-Greene run for 3 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
25.3%
Micah Gray run for 1 yd to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-5
25.0%
Trae Hall sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+13
24.2%
Tyson Dyer punt for 51 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 13 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2776% → 76%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
24.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
24.1%
LOVE, Jordan pass incomplete to TERRELL, Carson, PENALTY NM pass interference (ROGERS, De'John) 15 yards to the NM42, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
23.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 11 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
23.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
23.7%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
23.9%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 4
OPP 25
-3
24.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 12 yds to the NMex 13 UTAH ST Penalty, illegal block (Jaylen Warren) to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
24.1%
Dominik Eberle 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2024% → 32%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.8%
Trae Hall pass complete to Marcus Williams for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+22
23.8%
Trae Hall run for 22 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
24.8%
Trae Hall pass complete to Aaron Molina for 7 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
25.0%
Trae Hall run for 4 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+25
25.0%
Bobby Cole run for 25 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
25.5%
Trae Hall run for 1 yd to the UthSt 15Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+8
25.5%
Bobby Cole run for 8 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
31.6%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 7 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5172% → 79%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
28.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
27.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+8
28.5%
Jordan Love run for 8 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
27.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 6
50
+4
27.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+35
27.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 35 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
26.8%
Henry Colombi run for no gain to the NMex 11Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
21.2%
Jordan Nathan run for 11 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
21.7%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
21.6%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
21.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 18Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+9
21.1%
Trae Hall run for 9 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
21.0%
Tyson Dyer punt for 38 yds, downed at the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
22.0%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
21.4%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
21.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Letayveon BeatonSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+4
22.2%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 51 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 4 yds to the NMex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14INT
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
21.4%
Trae Hall run for 3 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
21.5%
Trae Hall run for 6 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+4
21.5%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
21.8%
Bobby Cole run for 8 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+18
22.3%
Trae Hall run for 18 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
23.4%
Trae Hall pass intercepted DJ Williams return for no gain to the UthSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
21.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 2 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
21.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
22.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+3
22.7%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 64 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
20.8%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Jordan Kress, broken up by Justus Te'iSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
20.8%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-8
20.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UthSt Justus Te'iSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1780% → 90%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
19.6%
Gerold Bright run for 12 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.0%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0914% → 14%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
14.0%
Trae Hall run for no gain to the NMex 29 Trae Hall fumbled, recovered by UthSt Christopher UngaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:2690% → 96%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
9.6%
Jordan Nathan run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+10
9.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 10 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
9.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
3.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Derek Wright for 16 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.1%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:453% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
3.4%
Trae Hall run for 15 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
3.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 21 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
3.8%
Trae Hall run for 2 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
3.8%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+4
3.9%
Trae Hall run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
4.1%
Micah Gray run for 5 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+23
4.1%
Micah Gray run for 23 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.2%
Micah Gray run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.4%
Trae Hall run for 1 yd for a TD (Donovan Murphree PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
8.2%
Gerold Bright run for 15 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
8.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for no gain to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
8.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan Nathan, broken up by Alex HartSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
8.3%
Jordan Love pass intercepted De'John Rogers return for no gain to the NMex 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:2712% → 21%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
11.6%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+15
11.7%
Bobby Cole run for 15 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
12.5%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
12.5%
Trae Hall pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
21.3%
Trae Hall pass complete to Marcus Williams for 19 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Aaron Molina) to the UthSt 18 (Donovan Murphree PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:0785% → 97%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
15.1%
Jordan Nathan run for 5 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
14.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
15.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
14.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
13.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+15
14.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 15 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
13.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Taylor Compton for 3 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
13.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Taylor ComptonSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+9
13.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 9 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
13.4%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+15
13.3%
Jordan Love run for 15 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
13.3%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
13.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
2.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 10 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
4.8%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
4.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 1 yd to the NMex 33Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
4.9%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Aaron MolinaSimilar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+9
4.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 48 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 9 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:1297% → 97%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
3.2%
Gerold Bright run for 15 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
2.9%
Gerold Bright run for 9 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
2.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Derek Wright, broken up by Donte MartinSimilar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
2.9%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
2.6%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
2.6%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+2
2.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
2.9%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 30 yds, fair catch by De'John Rogers at the NMex 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27TD
16 plays · 92 yds · 8:113% → 12%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
2.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-2
2.6%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+15
2.6%
HALL, Trae pass incomplete to UMEH, Anselem, PENALTY USU pass interference (HANEY, Cameron) 15 yards to the NM25, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.7%
Trae Hall run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
2.7%
Bryson Carroll run for 11 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
2.9%
Trae Hall run for 9 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
3.1%
Micah Gray run for 5 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
3.0%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
3.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 10 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
3.1%
Micah Gray run for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+12
3.4%
Trae Hall run for 12 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
3.4%
Micah Gray run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 13
OPP 24
-5
3.2%
HALL, Trae pass complete to UMEH, Anselem for 5 yards to the USU19 (WILLIAMS, DJ), PENALTY NM ineligible downfield on pass (STAPLEY, Kyle) 5 yards to the USU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 18
OPP 29
+6
3.1%
Trae Hall run for 6 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+16
3.1%
Trae Hall pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 16 yds to the UthSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
12.2%
Trae Hall run for 7 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 0:1895% → 96%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
5.0%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
4.4%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-2
4.1%
Jordan Nathan run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
4.1%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 29INT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:063% → 3%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
2.6%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 4 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-4
2.7%
Trae Hall sacked by Devon Anderson for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 47 Trae Hall fumbled, recovered by NMex Bryson Carroll , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
2.5%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Aaron MolinaSimilar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 9
OPP 47
+9
2.5%
Trae Hall pass complete to Aaron Molina for 9 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
2.8%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Aaron MolinaSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
2.8%
Trae Hall pass complete to Thomas Vieira for 9 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-5
3.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Chris Estrella) to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
3.1%
Trae Hall pass intercepted DJ Williams return for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 13
OWN 29
-4
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 17
OWN 25
-2
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:43
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 10 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q2 1:07
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q3 10:15
Trae Hall run for 1 yd for a TD (Donovan Murphree PAT BLOCKED)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com