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NEV

Nevada 35 at Fresno State 28

FRES
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:40 · Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds , Ben Putman returns for 3 yds to the Nevad 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+5.9Home team on offense+1.7Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:27: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 17 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +8.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:20: Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 3 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +8.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:27: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds for a TD TALTON, Brandon kick attempt good, PENALTY NEV false start (WILKINSON, Sheldon) 5 yards to the FS8, NO PLAY. (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +13.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:49: Devonte Lee run for 25 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +19.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:12: Toa Taua run for 3 yds for a TD TALTON, Brandon kick attempt good, PENALTY NEV false start (LANDIS, Moses) 5 yards to the FS8, NO PLAY. (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +33.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:52FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 28, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:51NEV 4th & 11 at FRES 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:39FRES 4th & 25 at FRES 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:05NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:42FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:56NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−7.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:56NEV 4th & 8 at FRES 39, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−1.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:40FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−8.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:49NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:46FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−19.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:58NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:14NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:41FRES Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:27FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:16FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:20FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:27NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:49NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:12NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0221% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
78.6%
Toa Taua run for 27 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
78.6%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
78.6%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to DOUBS, Romeo, PENALTY FS offside (33) 5 yards to the FS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-5
78.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
78.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
78.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete, broken up by Wylan FreeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
78.6%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+29
76.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 29 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
77.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+8
76.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+14
76.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 14 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
77.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 3 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
77.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+10
77.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 10 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
77.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
77.2%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-1
77.2%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
77.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:1127% → 35%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
73.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 14 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
72.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
73.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 8 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-5
73.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
73.1%
Carson Strong run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+6
73.3%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
72.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+24
72.9%
Toa Taua run for 24 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
72.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 8 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (1 Yards) to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3367% → 72%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
66.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 18 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
67.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+19
67.7%
Jorge Reyna run for 19 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
71.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 34 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5FUMBLE
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:3531% → 31%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
69.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-3
68.9%
Carson Strong sacked by Alex Dumais for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
69.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Randy JordanSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+17
69.8%
Quinton Conaway run for 17 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
68.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 14 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
67.8%
MOORE, Kelton rush for 1 yard to the FS40 (HUGHES, Juju), PENALTY NEV personal foul (STRONG, Carson) 15 yards to the NEV44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 44
+7
68.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 7 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 49
-1
68.3%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
50
+5
68.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+1
68.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 1 yd Romeo Doubs fumbled, forced by Mykal Walker, recovered by FrsSt Evan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:2568% → 74%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
68.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 16 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
69.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
69.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+4
68.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
69.7%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+11
69.7%
Josh Hokit run for 11 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
69.7%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
69.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+12
64.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 12 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
65.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
74.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 17 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:0374% → 80%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
74.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+7
74.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 7 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
74.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 2 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
74.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
80.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 12 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:2522% → 21%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
77.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
76.9%
Toa Taua run for 16 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
77.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+13
76.8%
Toa Taua run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
76.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
75.8%
Carson Strong run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
76.9%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-10
77.8%
LEE, Devonte rush for 2 yards to the FS21 (CRUZ, Alex;MOSBY, Arron), PENALTY NEV holding 10 yards to the FS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+50
79.0%
Brandon Talton 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3679% → 80%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
79.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
79.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+3
79.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
79.7%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Tristan Nichols for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4079% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.2%
Jorge Reyna run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
79.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+23
78.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 23 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
80.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+33
80.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 33 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
81.6%
REYNA, Jorge pass complete to RICE, Jared for 16 yards to the NEV0, clock 12:06, PENALTY FS pass interference (GLASPIE, Jamal) 15 yards to the NEV31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 25
OPP 31
-10
81.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Kelly for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 35
OPP 41
+33
80.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 33 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+5
80.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 3 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4712% → 26%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete, broken up by Mykal WalkerSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
87.3%
Carson Strong run for 8 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
86.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 2 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
86.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+51
86.7%
Devonte Lee run for 51 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds for a TD TALTON, Brandon kick attempt good, PENALTY NEV false start (WILKINSON, Sheldon) 5 yards to the FS8, NO PLAY. (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:4882% → 79%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-22
81.8%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Jordan Lee for a loss of 22 yards to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 32
OWN 3
+7
80.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 7 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 25
OWN 10
0
79.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
79.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4224% → 21%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
76.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
76.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete, broken up by Mykal WalkerSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+4
78.7%
Carson Strong run for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
79.1%
Carson Strong punt for 28 yds, downed at the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
82.6%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
81.1%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted Lawson Hall return for no gain to the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:2225% → 45%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
75.0%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
74.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+25
55.1%
Devonte Lee run for 25 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
64.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric Wheatfall, broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
63.7%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 1:4442% → 41%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
59.1%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to COOKS, Elijah, PENALTY FS personal foul 15 yards to the NEV49, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
55.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 9 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
53.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
54.1%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
58.0%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
55.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+5
54.8%
Carson Strong run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-4
54.4%
Carson Strong sacked by Mykal Walker for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
59.2%
Carson Strong punt for 35 yds, downed at the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
64.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 6 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+5
64.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 5 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
64.5%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
65.5%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
65.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+5
67.5%
Jorge Reyna run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
67.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-3
67.7%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-5
63.9%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Tristan Nichols and James Fotofili for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+3
62.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds , Ben Putman returns for 3 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
55.8%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
55.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+9
57.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
54.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
52.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
50.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Henry Ikahihifo for 3 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
50.5%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
51.7%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-5
50.5%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Miles Beach) to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+3
55.7%
Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
56.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds, downed at the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 54%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
57.8%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
57.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
55.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie Edwards, broken up by Austin ArnoldSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+24
53.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 yds , Ben Putman returns for 24 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:0861% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
39.3%
Toa Taua run for 21 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
38.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.9%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.9%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds for a TD TALTON, Brandon kick attempt good, PENALTY NEV false start (LANDIS, Moses) 5 yards to the FS8, NO PLAY. (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:12
Toa Taua run for 3 yds for a TD TALTON, Brandon kick attempt good, PENALTY NEV false start (LANDIS, Moses) 5 yards to the FS8, NO PLAY. (Brandon Talton KICK)
-33
TD · Q3 1:49
Devonte Lee run for 25 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q3 7:27
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds for a TD TALTON, Brandon kick attempt good, PENALTY NEV false start (WILKINSON, Sheldon) 5 yards to the FS8, NO PLAY. (Brandon Talton KICK)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com