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FRES

Fresno State 7 at San Diego State 17

SDSU
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2019 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:42 · Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+0.7Pregame prior+5.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score differential+0.3Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:55: Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 4 — FRES win probability +5.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:53: Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44 — FRES win probability +4.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. PUNT · Q3 2:59: Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 28 — SDSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:14: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:00: Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 11:00 — SDSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:30SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30SDSU 4th & 3 at FRES 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:22FRES 4th & 1 at SDSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:57SDSU 4th & 5 at FRES 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:42FRES 4th & 8 at SDSU 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:35SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:42FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:06SDSU 4th & 7 at FRES 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:04FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:59FRES 4th & 20 at FRES 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−5.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:08SDSU 4th & 4 at FRES 13, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%−0.7
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:05FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:39SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:14SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1859% → 59%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
58.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+16
58.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 16 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
58.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
58.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 4 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
58.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+71
58.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 61 yds for a touchback FRESNO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Leevel Tatum III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4741% → 41%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
58.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
58.8%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Devo BridgesSimilar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
58.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
59.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0159% → 59%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
59.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
59.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
59.3%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
59.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
59.4%
Ryan Agnew run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+2
59.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 2:1641% → 45%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
58.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+53
58.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 53 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
57.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+5
57.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 5 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1556% → 55%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
55.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 7 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-1
55.9%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+9
55.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 9 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
55.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
55.4%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
54.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
54.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 54 yds, downed at the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1445% → 45%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
54.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Dontae Bull) to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+3
54.6%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 5
-2
54.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Dontae Bull) to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+1
54.5%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
54.6%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted Tariq Thompson return for no gain to the FrsSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:2756% → 61%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
56.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+12
56.1%
Agnew, Ryan pass incomplete to Matthews, Jesse, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Jordan, Randy) 12 yards to the FRESNOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST.Similar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3842% → 42%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
57.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Cam SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
58.4%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted Luq Barcoo return for no gain to the FrsSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9INT
3 plays · -9 yds · 1:1260% → 59%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
60.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for no gain to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-9
60.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ryan Agnew for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 19
OPP 45
+4
59.1%
Ryan Agnew pass intercepted Chris Gaston return for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5443% → 43%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
56.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
56.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
57.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-1
57.1%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:1861% → 61%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
50
+5
60.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-5
60.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Zachary Thomas) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
50
+29
60.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 29 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
61.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+9
61.5%
Ryan Agnew run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
61.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
61.6%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
61.1%
Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:0439% → 39%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
60.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 11 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
60.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 20 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
58.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
58.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
59.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric Wheatfall, broken up by Dwayne Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
61.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:5761% → 60%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
61.4%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 14Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+24
61.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 24 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
62.7%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
63.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 7 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+6
63.2%
Ryan Agnew run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
64.4%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 17
OPP 45
-1
63.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 9 yds to the SANDIEGOST 45 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Isaiah Richardson) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 18
OWN 45
0
62.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 18
OWN 45
0
61.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
60.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4538% → 36%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
61.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 11 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
61.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+2
61.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 15
OWN 26
0
62.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane Pope, broken up by Trenton ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
63.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15MISSED FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 1:2862% → 64%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
62.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 10 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 5 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
62.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 7 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
64.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
65.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 8 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
65.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 12 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
65.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
65.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 3 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
63.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
63.5%
Matt Araiza 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ricky McCoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
63.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5138% → 36%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
62.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+50
64.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FUMBLE
15 plays · 79 yds · 4:5764% → 70%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
63.7%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+9
63.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 9 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+19
62.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 19 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
65.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
65.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+11
65.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 11 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
67.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
67.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 11 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
69.2%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
69.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-5
67.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (William Dunkle) to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+21
66.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 21 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
70.1%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+9
70.3%
Chance Bell run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 2 Chance Bell fumbled, forced by Arron Mosby, recovered by FrsSt Alex CruzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 5:5635% → 32%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
65.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
65.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+11
66.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
64.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+2
63.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.1%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
63.8%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
65.5%
Jorge Reyna run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
61.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
61.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-14
62.4%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Myles Cheatum for a loss of 14 yards to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 20
OWN 31
+1
68.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:3567% → 87%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
67.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+16
66.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 16 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
69.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+21
70.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SANDIEGOST 47 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Alex Cruz) to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
72.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
72.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 9 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+1
72.5%
Ryan Agnew run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
76.0%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21INT
15 plays · 69 yds · 5:0014% → 9%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
86.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+17
86.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 17 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
85.7%
Reyna, Jorge pass incomplete to Sutton, Cam, PENALTY SANDIEGOST pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
50
+2
83.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 2 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-2
84.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 10
50
+13
88.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 13 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
88.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 16 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
87.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+15
88.8%
Reyna, Jorge pass incomplete, PENALTY SANDIEGOST pass interference (Barcoo, Luq) 15 yards to the SANDIEGOST4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
88.8%
Hokit, Josh rush for 4 yards to the SANDIEGOST0, PENALTY FRESNOST holding (Aibuedefe, Nick) 10 yards to the SANDIEGOST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
89.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 7 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
89.0%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 13 Jorge Reyna fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Ronnie Rivers Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
91.0%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted Luq Barcoo return for no gain to the SDSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22DOWNS
17 plays · 86 yds · 7:4991% → 97%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
90.8%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 3Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 11
OWN 3
-2
91.2%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 13
OWN 1
+29
91.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 29 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
92.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+2
92.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+10
93.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 10 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
93.9%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
94.8%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
95.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
95.8%
Chance Bell run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
97.0%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+2
97.1%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+1
97.0%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+3
97.3%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:14
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+11.1
PUNT · Q3 2:59
Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 28
+5.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:55
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 4
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com