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AF

Air Force 38 at Colorado State 21

CSU
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFUMBLETDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:00 · Cayden Camper 53 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior−19.1Home team on offense+9.2Score differential+4.2Garbage-time factor+2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q1 3:32: Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 5 yards Donald Hammond III fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Jones, recovered by ColSt Mohamed Kamara , return for 63 yds (Max Poduska KICK) — CSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:44: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 50 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +21.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:21: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 28 yds for a TD COLORADO ST Penalty, offside defense (Devin Phillips) to the ColSt 1 (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +19.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:36: Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 17 yds for a TD (Max Poduska KICK) — CSU win probability +30.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 2:32: Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +12.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 2 at AF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:03CSU 4th & 3 at AF 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:03AF 4th & 1 at CSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:32AF 4th & 9 at AF 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:58AF 4th & 11 at AF 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:00CSU 4th & 7 at AF 35, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05AF 4th & 3 at CSU 13, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−7.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 15 at AF 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:15CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:33CSU 4th & 16 at AF 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:52AF 4th & 4 at AF 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:20CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−3.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:37CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−5.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:02AF 4th & 1 at CSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.9%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:22CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:03CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:42AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:44AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:21AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:36CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:32AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:22AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5723% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
23.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
23.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 14 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
23.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
23.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
23.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
23.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+11
23.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
23.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
23.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+9
23.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Adam Prentice for 9 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
23.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 6 yds to the AFA 3 Marcus McElroy fumbled, forced by Jeremy Fejedelem, recovered by ColSt Marcus McElroySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-1
23.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
23.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
28.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds for a TD (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FUMBLE TD
11 plays · 28 yds · 5:3172% → 65%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
27.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
27.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
27.5%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+9
27.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
27.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
27.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
27.3%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
27.3%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
27.5%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+63
35.4%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 5 yards Donald Hammond III fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Jones, recovered by ColSt Mohamed Kamara , return for 63 yds (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
36.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
36.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
36.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, offside defense (Cam'ron Carter) to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
36.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
36.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
36.2%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 4
OWN 45
-5
36.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
37.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 0:0143% → 42%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
42.6%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
42.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 7 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
42.7%
Patrick O'Brien run for 9 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
43.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
43.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 6 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
43.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante Wright, broken up by Jeremy FejedelemSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-15
43.1%
O'BRIEN, Patrick pass complete to McBRIDE, Trey for 5 yards to the AF48, out-of-bounds (DONALDSON, Grant), PENALTY CSU pass interference (McBRIDE, Trey) 15 yards to the CSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 32
-12
42.0%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Jake Ksiazek for a loss of 12 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 31
OWN 20
0
41.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
46.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
46.6%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
46.9%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 11
OWN 17
+21
47.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the COLOST 45 AIR FORCE Penalty, kick catching interference (Jeremy Fejedelem) to the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0252% → 51%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
51.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
51.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
50.8%
Patrick O'Brien run for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+53
51.2%
Cayden Camper 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:1851% → 60%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
49.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 23 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
48.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+2
46.7%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
47.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
40.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 31 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) COLORADO ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.2%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
45.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
45.4%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 36Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
45.6%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-4
45.1%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Jake Ksiazek and Michael Purcell for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 34 Patrick O'Brien fumbled, recovered by AFA Jake Ksiazek , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:4357% → 61%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
43.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
42.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+7
44.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
42.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+4
42.6%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+2
44.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
39.3%
Jake Koehnke 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:2244% → 45%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
45.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 9 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
46.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 5 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
45.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 5 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
46.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ Scott, broken up by Milton Bugg IIISimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
45.7%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Jake Ksiazek for 0 yards to the AFA 44 Patrick O'Brien fumbled, recovered by ColSt Jaylen Thomas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+13
45.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 13 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
44.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 16 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
42.3%
Timothy Jackson run for no gain to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
42.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-4
44.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 36
+2
46.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 48 yds , Dante Wright returns for 2 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
46.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
46.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 3 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+5
45.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
46.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+7
47.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 7 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
48.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
48.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
48.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+1
46.9%
Adam Prentice run for 1 yd to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
47.5%
Donald Hammond III pass intercepted Cam'ron Carter return for 19 yds to the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0059% → 52%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
58.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
58.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-Myers, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-10
57.3%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Mosese Fifita for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
52.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
53.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
52.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
54.4%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Benjamin WatersSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
56.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
57.7%
THOMAS, Jaylen rush for 4 yards to the CSU31 (MEEKS, Demonte), PENALTY CSU holding (TAYLOR, Jeff) 10 yards to the CSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+4
57.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+10
56.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 10 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+12
56.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 12 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
60.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
59.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
57.2%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Christopher Herrera for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
54.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, downed at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3643% → 66%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
54.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-2
52.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+9
56.8%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 9 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
52.6%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
50
0
54.9%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Dane Kinamon, broken up by Tron FolsomSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 11
50
+50
33.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 50 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
37.9%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Demonte Meeks for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 10Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 18
OWN 10
+4
37.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 14
OWN 14
0
35.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-Myers, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 14
OWN 14
0
34.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:4169% → 90%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
30.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
30.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
30.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+10
32.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 10 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
29.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
28.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
29.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
10.4%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 28 yds for a TD COLORADO ST Penalty, offside defense (Devin Phillips) to the ColSt 1 (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4513% → 44%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
12.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 58 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
43.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 17 yds for a TD (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0471% → 94%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
28.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
27.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 11 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
25.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+29
25.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 29 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
23.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+8
17.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Rhett Myers for 8 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+9
18.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 9 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22INT TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:036% → 3%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
6.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 24 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
9.3%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.5%
Patrick O'Brien run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
7.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 39 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+99
3.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass intercepted for a TD Zane Lewis return for 99 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23END OF GAME
13 plays · 57 yds · 0:582% → 3%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
2.1%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Mosese Fifita for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
2.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ Scott, broken up by Grant TheilSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+13
2.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 13 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+10
2.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 10 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
2.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
50
+23
2.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 23 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
2.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 15 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
2.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
2.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ Scott, broken up by Milton Bugg IIISimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-6
2.5%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Kyle Johnson and Jake Ksiazek for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:36
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 17 yds for a TD (Max Poduska KICK)
+30.8
TD · Q4 13:44
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 50 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
-21.2
TD · Q4 7:21
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 28 yds for a TD COLORADO ST Penalty, offside defense (Devin Phillips) to the ColSt 1 (Jake Koehnke KICK)
-19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com