Try the model
NEV

Nevada 17 at San Diego State 13

SDSU
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:10 · Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+10.3Home team on offense+0.8Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:12: Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 13 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +16.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:24: Chance Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:31: Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +27.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:35: Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by EJ Muhammad — SDSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:25: Toa Taua run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 45 — NEV win probability +19.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:25NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:44SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:05NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:58SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:22NEV 4th & 5 at SDSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:15SDSU 4th & 4 at NEV 4, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:45SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:57NEV 4th & 7 at SDSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:42SDSU 4th & 1 at NEV 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%−1.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at SDSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−2.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at SDSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−2.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−8.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:04SDSU 4th & 1 at NEV 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−3.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−15.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−3.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:10SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:26SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 45, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−3.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:43NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 27, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:46SDSU 4th & 6 at NEV 27, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%−0.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−9.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:43NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−5.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:35SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.2%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 7:12NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:24SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:31NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.0%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
87.0%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
87.0%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
86.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-7
86.3%
Carson Strong sacked by Kyahva Tezino for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
86.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
85.9%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-3
86.0%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
85.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+19
85.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 51 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 19 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4115% → 16%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
85.0%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+19
85.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 19 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
84.7%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-1
84.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
85.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+2
84.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 38 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 49 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (8 Yards) to the SDSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
83.9%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SDSt 9Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
83.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+4
83.7%
Ryan Agnew run for 4 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+23
83.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 47 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 23 yds to the SDSt 36 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1317% → 18%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
82.6%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+2
82.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 2 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
82.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
82.2%
Brandon Talton 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 5:0782% → 82%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
81.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 13 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
82.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
82.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
82.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+28
82.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 28 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
83.2%
Ryan Agnew run for 6 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
83.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+8
81.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 8 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
81.8%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the Nevad 6Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
81.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Juwan WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
81.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 2 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
81.9%
Matt Araiza 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8INT
6 plays · 57 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.7%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+45
80.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 30 yds to the SANDIEGOST 45 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
79.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
79.0%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
79.2%
Carson Strong pass intercepted Darren Hall return for no gain to the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
80.3%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 9 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-1
80.2%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 8Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 8
-1
79.7%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 7Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+5
79.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 49 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
77.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
77.4%
Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
77.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Reagan Roberson for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
78.5%
Carson Strong punt for 23 yds, downed at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11INT
15 plays · 63 yds · 5:2979% → 79%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
79.0%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Sam Hammond and Lawson Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+17
78.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 17 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
79.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 18 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
80.7%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+6
80.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 6 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+4
80.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
81.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 11 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
81.1%
AGNEW, Ryan sacked for loss of 10 yards to the NEV34 (HAMMOND, Sam), PENALTY SDSU intentional grounding 10 yards to the NEV34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 20
OPP 34
-5
80.2%
AGNEW, Ryan pass complete to JASMIN, Chase for 4 yards to the NEV30 (HALL, Lawson), PENALTY SDSU illegal formation 5 yards to the NEV39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 25
OPP 39
+1
79.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 24
OPP 38
+23
79.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 23 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+3
77.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
79.3%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Daniel BellingerSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+22
79.3%
Ryan Agnew pass intercepted Daniel Brown return for 22 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
74.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 2 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
74.5%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:4827% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.1%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 6 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
70.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
70.2%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
69.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Ben Putman for 5 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
70.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 9 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-5
69.2%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
69.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
70.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Ben Putman for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+11
71.6%
Devonte Lee run for 11 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
69.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Ben Putman for 9 yds to the SDSt 10 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
69.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
70.2%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the SDSt 10Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
71.6%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
69.2%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
47.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 13 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:4055% → 75%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
55.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 4 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
55.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+10
54.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
57.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 9 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+10
59.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 10 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
59.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+12
59.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 12 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
61.4%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
61.4%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
59.5%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the Nevad 16Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
58.0%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
61.4%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+6
61.4%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.9%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2435% → 38%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.9%
Carson Strong run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
63.6%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
61.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Ben Putman for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
60.5%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
62.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
67.2%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
67.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+8
65.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 17
-8
65.3%
JASMIN, Chase rush for 7 yards to the SDSU24 (HALL, Lawson), PENALTY SDSU holding 8 yards to the SDSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
64.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0242% → 72%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+50
58.5%
Elijah Cooks pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 50 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
55.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Reagan RobersonSimilar
Q4 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
55.4%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to COOKS, Elijah, PENALTY SDSU pass interference 3 yards to the SDSU2, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
55.4%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the SDSt 2Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
55.4%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.6%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
37.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
37.3%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Ethan DedeauxSimilar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
35.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 8 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
37.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
28.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
29.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Henry Ikahihifo for 6 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
28.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+6
29.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:0033% → 40%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
33.1%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-9
33.1%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Sam Hammond and Hausia Sekona for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+19
30.8%
Ryan Agnew run for 19 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
35.5%
Chance Bell run for 10 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
38.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Isaiah Richardson, broken up by EJ MuhammadSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
37.3%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+14
37.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 14 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
41.7%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
41.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
38.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to BJ Busbee, broken up by Austin ArnoldSimilar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
39.8%
Matt Araiza 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:5874% → 78%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
26.1%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
25.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-7
20.4%
Carson Strong sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+9
22.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 44 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 9 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 27%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
33.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by EJ MuhammadSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-6
31.4%
Ryan Agnew run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+4
29.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 4 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
28.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
26.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Parker HoustonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0492% → 91%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
7.9%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 13
OPP 45
-2
7.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 15
OPP 47
-1
8.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:31
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-27.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:25
Toa Taua run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 45
-19
TD · Q3 7:12
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 13 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com