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USU

Utah State 37 at Fresno State 35

FRES
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:00 · Blake Cusick punt for 55 yds, downed at the UthSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+10.7Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:01: Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +17.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:56: Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +14.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:04: Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +20.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 14:11: Jalen Cropper run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +22.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Dominik Eberle 30 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +55.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 5:00FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:48USU 4th & 1 at USU 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:10FRES 4th & 21 at FRES 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  4. Q3 14:52USU 4th & 1 at FRES 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−2.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−9.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 5:16USU 4th & 5 at FRES 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−11.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:58USU 4th & 3 at USU 26, up 3
    Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:31USU 4th & 10 at FRES 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−11.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:31FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:25USU 4th & 1 at FRES 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−6.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−27.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:19FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 14, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.7 ptsPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−5.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:23FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:07USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:21FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:59USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:39USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:01USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:56FRES Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:04FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:11FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 6:3763% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
62.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
62.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+18
62.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 18 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
62.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
62.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+7
62.9%
Cam Sutton run for 7 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
62.9%
Josh Hokit run for 9 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
62.9%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
62.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+11
62.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 11 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+11
62.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 11 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
65.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:0735% → 39%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
64.9%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
64.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 6 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
64.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 7 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-1
64.4%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+9
64.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 9 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
64.3%
LOVE, Jordan pass incomplete to MARINER, Siaosi, PENALTY FS pass interference (BRYANT, Jaron) 15 yards to the FS30, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
64.0%
Jordan Love run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+21
60.8%
Gerold Bright run for 21 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
62.4%
Jalen Cropper run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-4
62.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
61.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
61.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 55 yds, downed at the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
62.0%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
62.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 6 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-5
62.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+8
62.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 8 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
62.6%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:4263% → 70%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
62.5%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+15
62.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 15 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Arron Mosby, broken up by Justus Te'iSimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
63.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+14
62.3%
Jorge Reyna run for 14 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
63.8%
Jalen Cropper run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
63.6%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+33
62.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 33 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
64.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
64.1%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to RICE, Jared, PENALTY USU pass interference (SHELTON, Elijah) 3 yards to the USU2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:1632% → 42%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
67.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 9 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+28
66.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 28 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
65.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 19 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
64.9%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+12
64.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 12 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
64.9%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
64.9%
LOVE, Jordan rush for 2 yards to the FS3 (MOSBY, Arron;WALKER, Mykal), PENALTY USU illegal formation 5 yards to the FS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
64.9%
Jordan Love sacked by Kwami Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
58.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 15 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
15 plays · 24 yds · 4:4362% → 59%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
61.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
62.2%
Jorge Reyna run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+19
61.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 19 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
63.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-4
63.7%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Caden Andersen and Justus Te'i for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+10
61.7%
REYNA, Jorge pass intercepted by WILLIAMS, DJ at the USU16, WILLIAMS, DJ return to the USU16, PENALTY USU holding (WILLIAMS, DJ) 10 yards to the USU47, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
64.0%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
63.8%
REYNA, Jorge pass complete to RICE, Jared for 3 yards to the USU44, out-of-bounds, PENALTY FS holding (BULL, Dontae) 10 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 20
OWN 43
-5
62.3%
REYNA, Jorge pass complete to RIVERS, Ronnie for 27 yards to the USU30 (VONGPHACHANH, AJ), PENALTY FS holding (FUAMATU, Jace) 5 yards to the FS38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 25
OWN 38
-8
62.1%
REYNA, Jorge pass complete to GLASPIE, Jamal for 5 yards to the FS43, out-of-bounds (ANDERSEN, Caden), PENALTY FS illegal block (FUAMATU, Jace) 8 yards to the FS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 33
OWN 30
0
60.8%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane Pope, broken up by Shaq BondSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 33
OWN 30
+12
59.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 12 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 21
OWN 42
0
59.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 1:5143% → 61%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
57.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
57.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+17
58.0%
Jordan Love run for 17 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
55.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 9 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+11
53.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 11 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+36
53.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 36 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
52.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Caleb ReppSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
52.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Caleb Repp, broken up by Arron MosbySimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 8 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
45.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:5158% → 75%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
41.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
41.7%
Jordan Love run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
50
+26
41.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 26 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
40.8%
Deven Thompkins run for no gain to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
41.0%
Jordan Love run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
41.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Taylor Compton for 5 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+9
42.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:0029% → 47%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
29.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+12
28.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
29.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jamal GlaspieSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+19
29.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 19 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+45
31.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 45 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
32.6%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.4%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:3161% → 69%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
38.9%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+4
37.5%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+62
38.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 62 yds Deven Thompkins fumbled, recovered by UthSt Siaosi Mariner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
34.8%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
34.8%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Demytrick Ali'ifua) to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+7
35.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 7 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
35.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
30.9%
Dominik Eberle 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1231% → 57%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.9%
Jorge Reyna run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+40
30.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 40 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
35.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+30
35.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 30 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
35.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Juan Rodriguez) to the UthSt 6Similar
Q3 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
46.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-5
46.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Heneli Avendano) to the UthSt 18Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
47.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+8
48.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 8 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+12
49.3%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 44 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 12 yds to the UthSt 38 UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UthSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:2154% → 76%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
53.9%
REYNA, Jorge pass complete to CROPPER, Jalen for 5 yards to the USU38, out-of-bounds (LEFEGED JR, Troy), PENALTY FS holding (POPE, Zane) 10 yards to the FS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+7
50.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 7 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+8
51.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+28
53.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 28 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
75.7%
Jalen Cropper run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 1:4032% → 39%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
68.2%
Gerold Bright run for 20 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
64.7%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+13
64.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
63.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+16
63.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 16 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
61.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
61.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Taylor ComptonSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
63.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
61.5%
Dominik Eberle 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
64.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
64.4%
Jalen Cropper run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
62.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
60.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18DOWNS
18 plays · 67 yds · 5:0638% → 45%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
61.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 5 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+6
60.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 6 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
59.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+21
60.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 21 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
57.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 9 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+4
55.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
55.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Kyler Hack) to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 15
OPP 31
-2
56.6%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+5
57.8%
LOVE, Jordan pass intercepted by BRYANT, Jaron at the FS0, BRYANT, Jaron return to the FS0, PENALTY FS offside defense (MCCOY, Ricky) 5 yards to the FS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+15
55.6%
LOVE, Jordan pass incomplete to THOMPKINS, Deven, PENALTY FS pass interference (GASTON, Chris) 15 yards to the FS13, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
55.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+5
55.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 5 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+4
57.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
55.0%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
55.0%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.9%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
55.5%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0062% → 59%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
61.7%
Jorge Reyna run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+2
62.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 14
0
60.8%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+8
58.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 47 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 8 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:0546% → 96%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
53.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 7
50
+11
53.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 11 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
53.2%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+15
52.6%
LOVE, Jordan pass incomplete to REPP, Caleb (WILLIAMS, Evan), PENALTY FS personal foul (ATKINS, Kevin) 15 yards to the FS21, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
50.2%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+9
54.8%
Gerold Bright run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
51.6%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
52.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
4.5%
Dominik Eberle 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Dominik Eberle 30 yd FG GOOD
-55.5
TD · Q4 14:11
Jalen Cropper run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
+22.8
TD · Q3 3:04
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
+20.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com