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UNM

New Mexico 10 at Nevada 21

NEV
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+18.1NEV 93.7%Carson Strong pass complete to ElijahCooks for 20 yds for a TD (BrandonTalton KICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 21 · Q4 5:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:45 · Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense+23.5Pregame prior+0.9Garbage-time factor+13.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.4Score differential+4.6Blowout margin−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:50: Toa Taua run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +8.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:08: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 57 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +11.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 12 — NEV win probability +5.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:20: Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 13 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST down — NEV win probability +5.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:45: Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +18.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 7 at UNM 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48NEV 4th & 22 at NEV 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:37UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at UNM 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−2.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:50UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:01UNM 4th & 19 at NEV 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:13NEV 4th & 2 at UNM 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:14UNM 4th & 23 at NEV 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−3.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:06NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:47UNM 4th & 1 at NEV 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−2.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:20NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:46UNM 4th & 13 at UNM 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−2.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:44NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UNM 4th & 4 at NEV 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:37NEV 4th & 17 at UNM 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−3.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−1.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:28UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:55UNM 4th & 18 at UNM 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:36NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:21UNM 4th & 10 at NEV 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:48UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:50NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:08NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:45NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (Ben Gansallo) to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-5
59.5%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Gray Davis) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
59.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
59.5%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Aaron Frost) to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+6
59.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
59.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (Ben Gansallo) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
59.5%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
59.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 12 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
59.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+6
59.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
59.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
59.5%
Carson Strong punt for 28 yds, downed at the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:2941% → 45%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
59.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 11 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
59.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+20
59.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 20 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
59.1%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
59.3%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+18
59.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 18 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
58.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 24 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
58.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 14 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
56.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
57.3%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Nate Brown) to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+8
56.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 8 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
57.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-17
57.2%
Carson Strong sacked by Alexander Vainikolo for a loss of 17 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 22
OWN 40
+9
55.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 45 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 9 yds to the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
54.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 7 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+11
53.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 11 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
53.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
53.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Daevon Vigilant for 5 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
53.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
54.0%
Tyson Dyer punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 8:1254% → 63%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
53.6%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
53.6%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
52.8%
Carson Strong run for 7 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
53.5%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+19
53.4%
Devonte Lee run for 19 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
54.9%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
55.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+7
54.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 7 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+14
54.1%
Devonte Lee run for 14 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
55.6%
Devonte Lee run for 8 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-5
55.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Romeo Doubs) to the NMex 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-2
55.6%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+14
54.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 14 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
55.6%
Devonte Lee run for 7 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
55.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Reagan Roberson) to the NMex 8Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
54.5%
Devonte Lee run for 7 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Daevon VigilantSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 7 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
57.3%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
58.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:1861% → 71%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
61.0%
Carson Strong run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 22 Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by Nevad Carson StrongSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 15
OWN 22
0
60.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+21
59.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 21 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
71.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 57 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:0731% → 29%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
69.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 5 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
68.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 20 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
67.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 18 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
65.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-15
65.9%
TUIOTI, Tevaka pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Marcu, PENALTY NM pass interference (WILLIAMS, Marcu) 15 yards to the NEV42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 25
OPP 42
+5
68.3%
Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 20
OPP 37
+1
69.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 1 yd to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 19
OPP 36
+53
70.7%
Andrew Shelley 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 0:4871% → 70%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
70.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
71.8%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
71.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 15 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
72.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
72.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by De'John RogersSimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
71.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+15
69.7%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to DOUBS, Romeo, PENALTY NM pass interference (ROGERS, De'John) 15 yards to the NM16, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
72.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
72.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
71.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the NMex 8Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 2
OPP 8
0
70.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Reagan RobersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
70.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:4630% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
69.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 19 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
67.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
67.4%
Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+30
67.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 30 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
65.1%
Daevon Vigilant run for 3 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+1
65.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 1 yd to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-17
66.6%
Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 17 yards to the Nevad 32 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 23
OPP 32
+49
65.3%
Andrew Shelley 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
67.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+1
67.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
65.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+15
65.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 15 yds to the NMex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
64.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 5 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+19
62.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 19 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
61.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
60.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+8
62.1%
Ahmari Davis run for 8 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
60.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 6 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
60.7%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
62.1%
Bryson Carroll run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
63.6%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
68.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
68.2%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
67.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+9
66.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 53 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 9 yds to the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0036% → 31%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Daevon VigilantSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
65.1%
TUIOTI, Tevaka pass incomplete to KRESS, Jordan (BROWN, Daniel), PENALTY NM ineligible downfield on pass (ESTRELLA, Chris) 5 yards to the NM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+2
66.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams, broken up by Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+34
68.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 44 yds, downed at the NEVADA 19 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-9
69.9%
Dominic Christian run for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 20 NEVADA Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+17
69.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 17 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-3
70.6%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
68.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 42 yds, downed at the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:0333% → 35%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
67.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
67.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 10 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
66.0%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 13 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
62.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
64.1%
Ahmari Davis run for 6 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
62.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
65.0%
Tyson Dyer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 46 yds · 1:1270% → 69%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
70.0%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
69.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+15
68.6%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to DOUBS, Romeo, PENALTY NM pass interference (ROGERS, De'John) 15 yards to the NEV34, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
71.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 5 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+10
73.4%
Devonte Lee run for 10 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
73.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+17
72.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 17 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
74.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-7
74.6%
Carson Strong sacked by Alex Hart for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 17
OPP 42
0
70.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
68.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 32 yds, downed at the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-6
67.6%
Tevaka Tuioti run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 4 Tevaka Tuioti fumbled, recovered by NMex Tevaka TuiotiSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 16
OWN 4
+2
68.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 2 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 14
OWN 6
+9
70.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 9 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+24
70.6%
Tyson Dyer punt for 55 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 24 yds to the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:3577% → 94%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
76.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 13 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
76.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 11 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
76.9%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Aaron Frost) to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+1
76.5%
Carson Strong run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+6
75.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
93.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:508% → 7%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
91.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 21 yds Emmanuel Logan-Greene fumbled, forced by Kyle Adams, recovered by NMex Marcus Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
89.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-8
90.4%
Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
92.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1294% → 95%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
93.9%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+1
95.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 23Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
95.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
94.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds, downed at the NMex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for no gain to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
96.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 5 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+26
96.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 26 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
95.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreeneSimilar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
95.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams, broken up by Tyson WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
96.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan Kress, broken up by EJ MuhammadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:45
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
+18.1
TD · Q2 5:08
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 57 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q2 7:50
Toa Taua run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com