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CSU

Colorado State 41 at Fresno State 31

FRES
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:20 · Jorge Reyna pass complete to Cam Sutton for 37 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+26.8Home team on offense−3.8Garbage-time factor−1.0Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:31: Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +11.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:18: Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +16.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:21: Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK) — CSU win probability +23.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:06: Cesar Silva 35 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +9.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:29: Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK) — CSU win probability +31.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 14:16FRES 4th & 19 at FRES 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:41CSU 4th & 18 at CSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:44FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:21FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:20CSU 4th & 13 at FRES 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:20FRES 4th & 1 at CSU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:59FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:11CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:23CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:06FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:46CSU 4th & 9 at FRES 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:35CSU 4th & 10 at FRES 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−8.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:35FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:52CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−5.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:10CSU 4th & 1 at FRES 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−7.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−10.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:29FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.4%−4.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:48CSU 4th & 4 at FRES 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−4.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:09FRES 4th & 12 at CSU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:16CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:21CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:08FRES Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:59CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:23FRES Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:31FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:18FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:21CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:29CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4418% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.8%
Patrick O'Brien run for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
81.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 69 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.4%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
81.4%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 21 Jorge Reyna fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by FrsSt Jorge ReynaSimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
81.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-5
81.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q1 14:16
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+2
81.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 52 yds , Dante Wright returns for 2 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-13
80.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 2 yds to the ColSt 36 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 23
OWN 21
+5
80.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 5 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 18
OWN 26
0
80.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
80.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
80.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds, downed at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
80.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
80.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 9 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
80.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
80.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
80.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:2221% → 24%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
79.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+10
79.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 10 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
79.3%
Marcus McElroy run for 27 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
79.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
79.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+32
79.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 32 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.7%
Patrick O'Brien run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
76.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
76.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-3
76.4%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Dequan Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+26
76.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 35 yds, downed at the FRESNOST 44 FRESNO ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-9 Yards) to the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7MISSED FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:0726% → 28%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
73.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marcus McElroy for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+29
73.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 29 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
73.7%
Patrick O'Brien run for no gain to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
73.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-3
73.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBride COLORADO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-3 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
71.9%
Cayden Camper 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1273% → 76%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
72.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 18 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
73.4%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to GLASPIE, Jamal, PENALTY CSU pass interference 15 yards to the CSU47, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
73.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
73.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
73.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Cam Sutton for no gain to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+37
73.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Cam Sutton for 37 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.5%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:0926% → 38%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
73.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the ColSt 37 FRESNO ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+18
73.3%
Marcus McElroy run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
72.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
72.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+10
73.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 10 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
70.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+12
71.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 12 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
70.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
70.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
70.8%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Mykal Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
61.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 9 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
63.1%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Jamal Hicks and Dequan Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
63.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie Edwards, broken up by Brandon CrossleySimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+11
62.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 11 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
62.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 61 yds, downed at the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
60.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-5
60.1%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 9Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 15
OWN 9
0
60.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 15
OWN 9
+9
61.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 37 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 9 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:4161% → 70%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
61.0%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
61.1%
Josh Hokit run for 12 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
61.5%
Jorge Reyna run for 8 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+10
61.5%
Josh Hokit run for 10 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
65.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
66.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
66.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 15 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
64.0%
EJ Scott run for 2 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
64.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
64.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
65.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
63.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for no gain to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
63.1%
Jorge Reyna run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 2
OWN 21
-2
62.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
62.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2843% → 45%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
57.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.0%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
57.0%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+6
56.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
55.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 40 yds, downed at the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
57.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:2958% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+37
57.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 37 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
61.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+10
61.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 10 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
62.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 20 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
62.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+12
62.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 12 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+7
62.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 7 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.5%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.9%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:5633% → 41%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+42
67.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 42 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
63.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+7
63.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
64.0%
Patrick O'Brien run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
62.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
63.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
64.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBride, broken up by Levelle BaileySimilar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
59.0%
Max Poduska 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
61.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+6
60.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+5
60.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 5 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+14
59.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 14 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
62.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 15
OWN 33
-3
60.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+12
59.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 12 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
60.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
55.6%
Christian Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 12Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 11
OWN 12
-5
56.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 7Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 16
OWN 7
0
56.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 16
OWN 7
0
57.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 16
OWN 7
+18
59.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 49 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 18 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:1562% → 80%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
61.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
61.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+22
60.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 22 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
63.4%
Jalen Cropper run for 9 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
79.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5727% → 55%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
73.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 8 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
72.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
72.7%
Patrick O'Brien run for 1 yd to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
70.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
71.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Brenden Fulton for 10 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+40
68.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 40 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:1554% → 65%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
53.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Marshaun Cameron) to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
57.3%
Jalen Cropper run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+45
58.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 45 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
61.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
0
61.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
0
60.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
55.6%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
64.8%
Cesar Silva 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24INT
16 plays · 61 yds · 0:0041% → 46%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
59.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
58.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
55.0%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
55.3%
Patrick O'Brien run for 2 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
54.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
56.0%
EJ Scott run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
54.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marcus McElroy for 3 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
54.2%
Marcus McElroy run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
53.9%
Patrick O'Brien run for no gain to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+7
57.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
52.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
52.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
52.0%
Marcus McElroy run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 3
OPP 9
-5
52.0%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
54.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass intercepted, touchback. Juju Hughes return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5259% → 55%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
59.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+25
54.9%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted Logan Stewart return for 25 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3958% → 90%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
41.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
10.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
21.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 9 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
23.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
22.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 7 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
25.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie Edwards, broken up by Brandon CrossleySimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
24.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
21.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for no gain to the FrsSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28FG
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:4189% → 97%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
10.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
8.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
8.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
4.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-2
4.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
3.3%
Max Poduska 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:393% → 3%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
3.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 17 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
3.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 20 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
3.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
3.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
3.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
3.0%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted, touchback. Logan Stewart return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:29
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)
-31.7
TD · Q4 14:21
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)
-23.7
TD · Q3 2:18
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
+16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com