Try the model
SDSU

San Diego State 27 at San José State 17

SJSU
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.8SJSU 33.4%Matt Araiza 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q2 14:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:33 · Matt Araiza 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense−2.1Pregame prior−16.1Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:06: Matt Araiza 27 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:18: Matt Mercurio 25 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 4:05: Juwan Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:26: Chase Jasmin run for 50 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:59: Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:05SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59SJSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:38SDSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:33SDSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:11SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:58SDSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:21SJSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:04SDSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−2.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:06SDSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:18SJSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−9.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:17SDSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−2.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−10.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:39SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:21SDSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 36, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.4
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:29SDSU 4th & 24 at SDSU 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:46SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:11SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:05SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:26SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:59SJSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:3029% → 30%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+41
29.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 41 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
29.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
29.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
30.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 15 yds for a TD SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
30.1%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-2
30.0%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-1
30.2%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Demanuel Talauati for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
30.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 59 yds, downed at the SJSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:0431% → 32%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
31.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+12
31.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+10
31.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 10 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
31.4%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to CRUMP, Andre Jr (THOMPSON, Tr.), PENALTY SDSU pass interference (THOMPSON, Tr.) 15 yards to the SDSU42, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
32.7%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
32.6%
Josh Love sacked by Keshawn Banks and Cameron Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 15
OPP 47
0
32.0%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
31.7%
Alex Galland punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:3068% → 66%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
32.4%
Juwan Washington run for 9 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+9
32.2%
Juwan Washington run for 9 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
32.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
32.6%
Ryan Agnew run for 9 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
32.3%
Ryan Agnew run for 3 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
32.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
50
+3
31.9%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+9
31.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 9 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
31.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
31.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
33.3%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
34.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 34 yds, downed at the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
34.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 4
-2
34.3%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 2Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
33.8%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+11
33.5%
Alex Galland punt for 51 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 11 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2667% → 67%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
33.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
32.8%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
33.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 9 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 1
OPP 22
-5
32.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
32.8%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-5
33.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+5
34.2%
Ryan Agnew run for 5 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 14:33
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
33.4%
Matt Araiza 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2234% → 34%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
34.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 2 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
33.7%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
33.7%
Alex Galland punt for 45 yds, downed at the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
34.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
34.3%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-8
34.9%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Tre White for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 19
OWN 18
+8
35.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 47 yds , Brandon Ezell returns for 8 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0637% → 35%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
36.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 12 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
37.5%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
36.2%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
35.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Brett FoleySimilar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
34.8%
Alex Galland punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
25 plays · 77 yds · 10:0465% → 71%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
35.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+2
35.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+21
35.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 6 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Cade Hall) to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
33.9%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
33.9%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+8
34.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 8 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
33.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
33.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+2
33.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 2 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
34.3%
Ryan Agnew run for 2 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
32.5%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+6
33.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+6
33.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 6 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
32.6%
WILLIAMS, K. rush for 13 yards to the SJSU11 (WEBB, Tre), PENALTY SDSU illegal shift 5 yards to the SJSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+13
33.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 13 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+8
29.8%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the SJSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-13
29.8%
WASHINGTON, J. rush for 2 yards to the SJSU6 (LATU, Sailosi;LENARD, Jay), PENALTY SDSU personal foul (MATTHEWS, Jesse) 13 yards to the SJSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 21
+6
30.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 6 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
31.6%
Ryan Agnew run for 14 yds to the SJSt 1 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Kobe Smith) to the SJSt 11Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
31.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 1 yd to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
32.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Isaiah RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
29.5%
Matt Araiza 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
32.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 4:4232% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
32.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 10 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
33.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
34.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
34.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
35.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Billy HumphreysSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
35.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 7 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+11
35.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 11 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
37.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
37.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+19
35.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 19 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
37.1%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
37.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr., broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
35.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
39.2%
Matt Mercurio 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 6:1265% → 82%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
34.9%
Juwan Washington run for 15 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
34.2%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+3
32.9%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
33.2%
Ryan Agnew run for 6 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+2
32.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
34.2%
Ryan Agnew run for 1 yd to the SJSt 23Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
35.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
32.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
32.1%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+4
32.1%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.3%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2621% → 19%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Billy HumphreysSimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
20.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Billy HumphreysSimilar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
19.2%
Alex Galland punt for 43 yds, downed at the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:0479% → 93%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
20.7%
WASHINGTON, J. rush for 7 yards to the SDSU39 (LENARD, Jay), PENALTY SDSU holding (LESSARD, Isaac) 7 yards to the SDSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 17
OWN 25
+12
21.4%
Ryan Agnew run for 12 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
20.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to TJ Sullivan, broken up by Christian WebbSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
20.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
19.4%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
18.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 3
50
+50
7.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 50 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:2610% → 10%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Andre Crump, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
9.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
10.3%
Alex Galland punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 22 , Jesse Matthews returns for no gain to the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 5:0093% → 95%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
7.1%
Chance Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
7.0%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
6.6%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
6.2%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
6.4%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
6.1%
Chance Bell run for 11 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
5.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-1
5.0%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
4.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chase Jasmin, broken up by Viliami FehokoSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
5.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 35 yds, downed at the SJSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 99 yds · 4:105% → 16%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
5.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
4.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+6
4.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 6 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
4.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
4.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 2 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+14
4.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 14 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
4.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 3 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
4.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+52
4.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 52 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
3.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Brett FoleySimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
15.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
14 plays · -3 yds · 2:2891% → 94%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
9.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
9.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
9.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Daniel Bellinger) to the SJSt 46Similar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 15
OPP 46
-5
9.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Daishawn Dixon) to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+4
7.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+1
6.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SJSt 46Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+1
7.0%
Ryan Agnew run for 1 yd to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 14
OPP 45
-5
7.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (Brandon Heicklen) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 19
50
-5
6.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Andrew Alves) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 24
OWN 45
0
6.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 54 yds, downed at the SJSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
3.4%
Josh Love pass intercepted Caden McDonald return for 11 yds to the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
5.3%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 4Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
5.0%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
5.1%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:05
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q4 4:59
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q3 0:26
Chase Jasmin run for 50 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com