2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreUNM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:55 · Andrew Shelley 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 7:31: Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe PAT MISSED) — WYO win probability +6.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:26: VALLADAY, X. rush for 1 yard to the WYO12 (HEARN, Jacobi), PENALTY NM offside 5 yards to the WYO16, NO PLAY. — WYO win probability +3.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 1:19: Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jordan Kress for 28 yds Jordan Kress fumbled, forced by Esaias Gandy, recovered by NMex for a 1ST down — UNM win probability +3.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:40: Sean Chambers pass complete to Josh Harshman for 15 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:31: Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 21 yds for a TD WYOMING Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +4.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 15:00WYO 4th & 2 at UNM 44, tiedClose callPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it87.4%57% to convertField goal87.2%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call87.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:15UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 43, tiedClose callPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it14.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:07WYO 4th & 5 at UNM 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snapGo for it85.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
- Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q2 5:05WYO 4th & 9 at UNM 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.2%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call84.4%56% to makePunt83.6%−0.8average punt
- Q2 1:30UNM 4th & 26 at WYO 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it14.8%−1.07% to convertField goal15.5%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q2 1:01WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snapGo for it80.6%−1.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00UNM 4th & 3 at WYO 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.3%52% to convertField goal16.5%−0.858% to makePunt12.7%−4.6average punt
- Q3 5:11UNM 4th & 2 at WYO 41, down 13Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 10.4% before the snapGo for it10.6%57% to convertField goal9.2%−1.432% to makePuntTheir call9.5%−1.1average punt
- Q3 3:26WYO 4th & 19 at WYO 11, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snapGo for it89.7%−3.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%average punt
- Q4 14:55UNM 4th & 6 at WYO 8, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call8.9%90% to makePunt4.5%−4.4average punt
- Q4 6:31UNM 4th & 15 at WYO 21, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−0.716% to convertField goal2.8%74% to makePunt1.1%−1.7average punt
- Q4 0:58WYO 4th & 18 at UNM 19, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it94.6%−0.711% to convertField goalTheir call95.3%77% to makePunt93.6%−1.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 0:04WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:31WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:40WYO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:31UNM Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.4%97% to makeGo for two7.1%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+5
86.5%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Josh Harshman for 5 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT11 plays · 40 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 18
-8
84.0%
Sean Chambers sacked by Alexander Vainikolo for a loss of 8 yards to the Wyom 10Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+10
83.8%
Sean Chambers pass complete to John Okwoli for 10 yds to the Wyom 20Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+15
83.7%
GALOVICH, Ryan punt 44 yards to the NM36, downed, PENALTY NM roughing the kicker 15 yards to the WYO35, 1ST DOWN WYO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+8
84.0%
Sean Chambers pass complete to John Okwoli for 8 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
84.1%
Tim Zaleski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by De'John Rogers at the NMex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4FUMBLE2 plays · 23 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
81.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 8 yds to the NMex 36 Bryson Carroll fumbled, forced by Rome Weber, recovered by Wyom Esaias Gandy , return for 1 yd to the NMex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5TD4 plays · 36 yds · 1:3683% → 86%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
83.1%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 25 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0416% → 16%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+22
84.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 22 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7MISSED FG14 plays · 54 yds · 6:3184% → 84%
Q2 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-9
84.4%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 14Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
84.9%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 6 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
85.2%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Dontae Crow for 11 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 3:3517% → 17%
Q2 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+27
82.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jordan Kress for 27 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
81.0%
DAVIS, Ahmari rush for 9 yards to the WYO19 (LIUFAU, Tegan), PENALTY NM illegal block 15 yards to the WYO43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 17
OPP 35
-9
83.2%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Garrett Crall for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1883% → 83%
Q2 1:01
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+3
82.8%
Tim Zaleski punt for 48 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 3 yds to the NMex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10END OF HALF11 plays · 21 yds · 0:4216% → 17%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
83.8%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Aaron Molina for 7 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
83.3%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Cole Godbout for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 11
50
+10
84.3%
JONES, Sheriron pass intercepted by HEARN, Azizi at the WYO42, HEARN, Azizi return to the NM16, out-of-bounds, PENALTY WYO holding 10 yards to the WYO40, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
83.4%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jordan Kress, broken up by Rome WeberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11DOWNS8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
82.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jordan Kress for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+10
80.8%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 10 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
79.8%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 5 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12TD9 plays · 70 yds · 4:1083% → 91%
Q3 7:31
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
91.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 2:2010% → 12%
WYODrive 14PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 3:26
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+5
91.7%
VALLADAY, X. rush for 1 yard to the WYO12 (HEARN, Jacobi), PENALTY NM offside 5 yards to the WYO16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-7
91.3%
Sean Chambers sacked by Jacobi Hearn for a loss of 7 yards to the Wyom 11 Sean Chambers fumbled, recovered by Wyom Sean Chambers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+14
91.0%
Tim Zaleski punt for 51 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 14 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
91.9%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the Wyom 21 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Wyom 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15FG8 plays · 40 yds · 1:2411% → 14%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
88.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jordan Kress for 28 yds Jordan Kress fumbled, forced by Esaias Gandy, recovered by NMex for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+8
88.8%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Marcu, PENALTY WYO pass interference 8 yards to the WYO12, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
88.4%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Aaron Molina, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1588% → 97%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.8%
Sean Chambers pass complete to John Okwoli for 15 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
87.6%
CHAMBERS, Sean pass intercepted by HERNANDEZ, John at the NM22, HERNANDEZ, John return to the NM22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NM offside off-setting, PENALTY WYO ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
97.4%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Josh Harshman for 15 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:094% → 8%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
95.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Aaron Molina, broken up by Jordan MurrySimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+21
92.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 21 yds for a TD WYOMING Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18FG15 plays · 56 yds · 5:3392% → 98%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
93.4%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-5
95.9%
VALLADAY, X. rush for 4 yards to the NM0, clock 01:54, PENALTY WYO illegal formation 5 yards to the NM9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 9
OPP 10
-9
96.3%
Sean Chambers sacked by Jacobi Hearn for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19END OF GAME9 plays · 58 yds · 0:523% → 3%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 14 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
97.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 5 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
97.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 7 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
96.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 13 yds to the Wyom 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:40
Sean Chambers pass complete to Josh Harshman for 15 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q3 7:31
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe PAT MISSED)
+6.1
TD · Q4 6:31
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 21 yds for a TD WYOMING Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Andrew Shelley KICK)
-4.1