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SJSU

San José State 38 at Nevada 41

NEV
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:06 · Quinton Conaway punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon Ezell at the SJSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense+8.9Pregame prior+3.0Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:09: DeJon Packer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:20: Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +31.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:53: Toa Taua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +29.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:36: DeJon Packer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +42.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Brandon Talton 40 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +34.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SJSU 4th & 24 at SJSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10SJSU 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 41, up 11
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:33SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:00SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:27SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:27NEV 4th & 5 at SJSU 26, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:12NEV 4th & 8 at SJSU 8, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:03SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:50NEV 4th & 13 at SJSU 39, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.8%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%
    36% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:12NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:21SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:06NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:51SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:02SJSU 4th & 1 at NEV 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−2.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−14.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00NEV 4th & 2 at SJSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−13.4
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−26.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:17NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:34NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:00NEV Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27SJSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:52NEV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:17SJSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:09SJSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:20SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:53NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−2.0
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:36SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the SJSt 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SJSt Josh LoveSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 29
OWN 6
+5
58.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 5 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
0
58.7%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 11
+8
58.7%
Alex Galland punt for 48 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 8 yds to the Nevad 19 NEVADA Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:4159% → 61%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
58.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
58.9%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+55
58.8%
Malik Henry pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 55 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
59.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
59.1%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the SJSt 2Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.9%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3INT TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4340% → 38%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
60.1%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+40
62.5%
Josh Love pass intercepted for a TD Austin Arnold return for 40 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:2437% → 38%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.6%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+46
62.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Andre Crump for 46 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
61.9%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+5
62.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 5 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
62.3%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
61.9%
Matt Mercurio 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
62.7%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
62.7%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+5
62.6%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+4
62.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 46 yds , Brandon Ezell returns for 4 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
62.7%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the SJSt 17Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+22
62.8%
Nick Nash run for 22 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
62.2%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-5
62.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+11
62.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 11 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
62.1%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
62.7%
Alex Galland punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 4:2365% → 74%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
64.5%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
64.4%
Devonte Lee run for 7 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+12
64.1%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
65.2%
Malik Henry pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
65.3%
Malik Henry pass complete to Crishaun Lappin for 19 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
65.3%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Nehemiah SheltonSimilar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
65.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SJSt 14Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
65.2%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
66.7%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
66.8%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
66.4%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+12
66.2%
Malik Henry pass complete to Cole Turner for 11 yds to the SJSt 2 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Cade Hall) to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.2%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.6%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
73.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to DeJon PackerSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
73.8%
Alex Galland punt for 40 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
75.0%
Malik Henry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
74.8%
Toa Taua run for 19 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
75.2%
Malik Henry pass intercepted Brandon Ezell return for no gain to the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
74.9%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
75.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
75.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
75.2%
Alex Galland punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11FG
16 plays · 37 yds · 6:1577% → 89%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
76.7%
Malik Henry pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 14 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
76.7%
Devonte Lee run for 7 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+8
76.4%
Malik Henry pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
76.4%
NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
76.7%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
76.6%
Malik Henry run for 4 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
76.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the SJSt 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nevad Malik HenrySimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+10
75.6%
Malik Henry pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 10 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
76.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
76.4%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
76.0%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the SJSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
76.4%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
80.7%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
80.2%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Nehemiah SheltonSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
88.9%
Brandon Talton 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
85.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
85.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
86.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
86.2%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
86.2%
Alex Galland punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:4191% → 92%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
91.4%
Malik Henry run for 1 yd to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+11
91.3%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
91.4%
Malik Henry run for 1 yd to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
91.3%
Malik Henry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-4
91.9%
Malik Henry sacked by E.J. Ane for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
91.7%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:1711% → 24%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
89.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 21 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
87.8%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+37
75.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 37 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
81.8%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
91.9%
Malik Henry pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 75 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3510% → 21%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 15 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
79.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 60 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
81.2%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
81.3%
Malik Henry pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 5 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
81.3%
Malik Henry pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
81.6%
Malik Henry pass complete to Devonte Lee for 9 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
82.2%
Malik Henry pass incomplete, broken up by Demanuel TalauatiSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
81.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 14:12
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+10
80.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 46 yds , Brandon Ezell returns for 10 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
82.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to JaQuan BlackwellSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
82.9%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to BLACKWELL, JaQu, PENALTY NEV pass interference (BROWN, Daniel) 11 yards to the SJSU32, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
81.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to DeJon PackerSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
82.4%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 12 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
81.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 3 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
80.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to JaQuan Blackwell, broken up by Kameron ToomerSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
81.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
82.3%
Alex Galland punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
85.0%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
85.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
84.4%
Malik Henry pass intercepted Rico Tolefree return for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3120% → 34%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
80.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Brett FoleySimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
81.1%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+16
82.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 16 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
80.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 13 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.5%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
76.0%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+6
75.8%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+9
75.2%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
76.4%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 16Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 18
OWN 16
-2
75.9%
Malik Henry pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 14Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 20
OWN 14
+11
74.9%
Malik Henry pass complete to Toa Taua for 11 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon Ezell at the SJSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Andre CrumpSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
72.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 6 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
71.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
73.6%
Alex Galland punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:4778% → 79%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
78.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
78.4%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+8
78.6%
Malik Henry pass complete to Dominic Christian for 8 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
80.1%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
81.2%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Brandon EzellSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
80.1%
Malik Henry run for no gain to the Nevad 17 Malik Henry fumbled, forced by Jesse Osuna, recovered by Nevad Nathan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
79.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 41 yds , Brandon Ezell returns for no gain to the SJSt 45 Brandon Ezell fumbled, recovered by Nevad Ben PutmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:5285% → 87%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.6%
Malik Henry pass incomplete, broken up by Christian JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
84.3%
Toa Taua run for 15 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
84.9%
Malik Henry pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 26 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
84.9%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Nate Brown) to the SJSt 9Similar
Q4 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
84.9%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
86.7%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds Toa Taua fumbled, forced by Nehemiah Shelton, recovered by SJSt Tysyn ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4219% → 55%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
81.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 9 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
79.2%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+37
80.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 37 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
75.6%
Sitaleki Nunn run for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 42 Sitaleki Nunn fumbled, recovered by SJSt Sitaleki NunnSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
79.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+19
80.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 19 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
78.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 3 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete, broken up by Lawson HallSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
75.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to JaQuan BlackwellSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
45.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2756% → 93%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.4%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
56.8%
Malik Henry pass complete to Dominic Christian for 7 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
58.3%
Malik Henry pass complete to Elijah Cooks for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
56.0%
Malik Henry run for 5 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
56.6%
Malik Henry pass complete to Dominic Christian for 13 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
62.4%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
62.3%
Malik Henry pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+13
61.0%
Malik Henry pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 13 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
64.1%
Malik Henry pass complete to Ben Putman for 18 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
64.1%
Malik Henry pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 13 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:1113% → 62%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
86.6%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+40
87.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 40 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.1%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+22
82.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Andre Crump for 22 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
81.1%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the Nevad 4 NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Austin Arnold) to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
80.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.5%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:3057% → 94%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
56.5%
Toa Taua run for 27 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
62.6%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
62.6%
Devonte Lee run for 5 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
66.0%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-4
68.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+10
62.3%
Malik Henry pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 10 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
94.3%
Brandon Talton 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:36
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
-42.4
FG · Q4 0:00
Brandon Talton 40 yd FG GOOD
+34.5
TD · Q4 8:20
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
-31.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com