2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:10 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:30: Sean Chambers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +11.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:48: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +20.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:28: Juwan Washington run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SDSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:49: Sean Chambers pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (S. Chambers Run For Two-point Conversion) — WYO win probability +36.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:09: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +43.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snapGo for it60.7%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.9%average punt
- Q1 14:02WYO 4th & 6 at SDSU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it39.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%average punt
- Q1 11:12SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snapGo for it60.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.7%average punt
- Q1 7:56WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it38.8%−0.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.2%average punt
- Q1 0:43SDSU 4th & 4 at WYO 30, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snapGo for it61.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%−0.256% to makePunt60.4%−0.7average punt
- Q2 12:56SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 17, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it54.7%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.3%average punt
- Q2 5:30WYO 4th & 1 at SDSU 1, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.1%59% to convertField goal43.7%−2.494% to makePunt37.9%−8.2average punt
- Q2 1:11SDSU 4th & 5 at WYO 15, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.439% to convertField goalTheir call39.5%83% to makePunt34.5%−5.0average punt
- Q3 15:00WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 32, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snapGo for it59.5%−0.552% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.0%average punt
- Q3 9:57SDSU 4th & 1 at WYO 17, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.5%71% to convertField goal37.2%−3.380% to makePunt27.4%−13.0average punt
- Q3 7:48WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 22, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snapGo for it41.5%−4.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.9%average punt
- Q3 6:15SDSU 4th & 3 at WYO 35, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.7%53% to convertField goal55.1%−2.645% to makePunt53.7%−4.0average punt
- Q4 15:00WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, down 5Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it33.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.0%−2.6average punt
- Q4 14:54SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 30, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it72.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%−5.0average punt
- Q4 11:44SDSU 4th & 6 at WYO 21, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snapGo for it75.1%−0.838% to convertField goalTheir call75.9%74% to makePunt63.3%−12.6average punt
- Q4 2:09WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.4%28% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.9%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 13:03WYO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.9%97% to makeGo for two42.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:30WYO Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.6%97% to makeGo for two56.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:48SDSU Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.3%97% to makeGo for two55.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:28SDSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick71.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call70.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:49WYO Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick52.9%−2.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call55.0%45% to convert
- Q4 2:09SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.2%97% to makeGo for two77.4%−0.945% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSDSUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+10
62.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 51 yds , Austin Conway returns for 10 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
WYODrive 4PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 7:56
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+9
62.5%
Ryan Galovich punt for 45 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 9 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG7 plays · 40 yds · 3:2262% → 63%
Q1 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+34
61.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 19 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4037% → 43%
SDSUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-10
58.1%
WASHINGTON, J. rush for no gain to the SDSU22 (MALUIA, Cassh;MUMA, Chad), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 19
OWN 12
-1
58.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 11Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+6
57.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 6 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8TD9 plays · 54 yds · 5:0944% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG14 plays · 56 yds · 4:1444% → 46%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
44.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+15
44.3%
AGNEW, Ryan pass incomplete to BELLINGER, D. (HALLIBURTON, A.), PENALTY WYO personal foul 15 yards to the WYO48, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+5
46.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 5 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
46.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 1 yd to the Wyom 35Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+15
45.8%
AGNEW, Ryan pass incomplete to BELLINGER, D., PENALTY WYO pass interference 15 yards to the WYO20, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
WYODrive 11PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
42.0%
Ryan Galovich punt for 55 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 35 WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD13 plays · 69 yds · 5:0741% → 61%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
41.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
41.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
42.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 9 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
44.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
60.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
SDSUDrive 14TD9 plays · 63 yds · 4:4756% → 75%
WYODrive 15PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2833% → 33%
SDSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
71.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Azizi HearnSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+7
69.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 52 yds , Austin Conway returns for 7 yds to the Wyom 25 Austin Conway fumbled, forced by Parker Houston, recovered by SDSt Rashad ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17MISSED FG4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3077% → 77%
Q4 13:14
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
75.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Azizi HearnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD10 plays · 79 yds · 4:5532% → 76%
Q4 11:44
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+24
67.2%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Titus Swen for 24 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+11
61.2%
Sean Chambers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
24.5%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (S. Chambers Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD10 plays · 76 yds · 4:3437% → 89%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
37.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaac Lessard for 18 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+28
40.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 28 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
45.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 9 yds to the Wyom 17Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
89.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20INT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0024% → 27%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.7%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.2%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.8%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 15 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
72.7%
Sean Chambers pass intercepted Luq Barcoo return for no gain to the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21END OF GAME7 plays · 10 yds · 0:1093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:09
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
+43
TD · Q4 6:49
Sean Chambers pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (S. Chambers Run For Two-point Conversion)
-36.6
TD · Q3 7:48
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
+20.7