Try the model
CSU

Colorado State 35 at New Mexico 21

UNM
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2019 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:24 · Tyson Dyer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−10.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:59: Kentrail Moran run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sheriron Jones pass to Marcus Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — UNM win probability +12.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:13: Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 87 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:05: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:14: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:05: Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +17.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:24UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30UNM 4th & 19 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:59CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:39UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:13UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05CSU 4th & 1 at UNM 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−3.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−12.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:14UNM 4th & 5 at midfield, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:22CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:30UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:02CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:38CSU 4th & 21 at UNM 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−4.5
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−9.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:58UNM 4th & 5 at CSU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:23CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:24CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:26UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:59UNM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:13CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:05CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:14CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:05UNM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:58CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:3661% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
39.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 14 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
39.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 3 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
39.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
39.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 7 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
39.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 14 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
39.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete, broken up by Ben GansalloSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
39.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 42 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.3%
Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
39.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 10 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
39.4%
Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
39.5%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Bryson CarrollSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
39.4%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
39.2%
Tyson Dyer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+47
39.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 47 yds Dante Wright fumbled, forced by Letayveon Beaton, recovered by NMex Brandon BurtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
39.2%
Bryson Carroll run for 12 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
39.5%
Sheriron Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
39.5%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
39.4%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to KRESS, Jordan, PENALTY CSU pass interference (NEAL, A.) 15 yards to the CSU41, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-13
39.7%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek for a loss of 13 yards to the NMex 46Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 23
OWN 46
0
39.3%
Sheriron Jones run for no gain to the NMex 46Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 23
OWN 46
+4
39.1%
Sheriron Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 19
50
0
39.0%
Tyson Dyer punt for 38 yds , Dante Wright returns for no gain to the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
38.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for no gain to the ColSt 12Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
38.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
39.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
39.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:1740% → 43%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+56
39.5%
Bryson Carroll run for 56 yds to the ColSt 1 Bryson Carroll fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.0%
Kentrail Moran run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Shelley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FUMBLE
19 plays · 81 yds · 6:2558% → 59%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
42.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
42.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+11
42.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 11 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
41.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Adam Prentice for 1 yd to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
41.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+10
41.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
41.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
41.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+11
41.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
40.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+3
40.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
40.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 10 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
40.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
40.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by De'John RogersSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
41.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Cameron Butler for 6 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.8%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to JACKSON, W., PENALTY NM offside defense (AUSTIN, Erin) 2 yards to the NM1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, forced by Devin Sanders, recovered by NMexSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:1544% → 59%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
44.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 6 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
44.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 9 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.3%
Bryson Carroll run for no gain to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
44.3%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+2
43.9%
Kentrail Moran run for 2 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 6
OWN 0
-15
42.9%
DYER, Tyson punt 55 yards to the CSU6, downed, PENALTY CSU roughing the kicker (FRANCIS, T.) 15 yards to the CSU46, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY, PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct (DYER, Tyson) 15 yards to the NM39, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
44.8%
Daevon Vigilant run for 6 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-1
45.7%
Sheriron Jones run for 9 yds to the NEWMEXICO 46 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
45.7%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to LOGAN-GREENE, E, PENALTY CSU pass interference (STEWART, L.) 15 yards to the CSU41, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
46.1%
Bryson Carroll run for 23 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
46.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+7
46.9%
JONES, Sheriron rush for no gain to the CSU13 (BOMBEK, J.), PENALTY CSU face mask (BOMBEK, J.) 7 yards to the CSU6, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
46.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.2%
Kentrail Moran run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sheriron Jones pass to Marcus Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-7
54.8%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 23 Marcus McElroy fumbled, forced by Erin Austin, recovered by ColSt Patrick O'BrienSimilar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-3
57.1%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Nahje Flowers and Devin Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
57.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 41 yds, downed at the NMex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
59.8%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
60.4%
Sheriron Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
59.7%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
58.2%
Tyson Dyer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
45.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 87 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.1%
Bryson Carroll run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.9%
Sheriron Jones run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
48.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
47.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Javohn Jones for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
47.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 56 yds, downed at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 1:5654% → 69%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
46.0%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Erin Austin and Joey Noble for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 9Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+5
46.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+16
46.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 16 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
44.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 15 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
42.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
43.1%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Nahje Flowers for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+15
45.8%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to KINSEY JR., M., PENALTY NM roughing passer (GANSALLO, Ben) 15 yards to the NM41, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
42.1%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to McCULLOUCH, T., PENALTY NM pass interference (MARTIN, Donte) 15 yards to the NM26, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
40.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 8 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+15
40.3%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to JACKSON, W., PENALTY NM pass interference (ROGERS, De'John) 15 yards to the NM3, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 2 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Adam PrenticeSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 8 yds to the NMex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.2%
Bryson Carroll run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
34.5%
Bryson Carroll run for 7 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
34.6%
Sheriron Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
36.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
35.9%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
34.0%
Tyson Dyer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:3367% → 84%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
32.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+11
32.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
31.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+64
31.2%
Dante Wright run for 64 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
21.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Aaron Molina for 20 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
22.7%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+7
22.0%
Sheriron Jones run for 7 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-1
22.7%
Sheriron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 5
50
0
22.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
17.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 1 yd to the ColSt 10Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-2
17.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 8Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+4
17.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 4 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
18.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 yds, downed at the NMex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
19.8%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
19.4%
Bryson Carroll run for 3 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+4
19.4%
Sheriron Jones run for 4 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
19.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
15.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-4
15.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 11Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+21
15.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 21 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
14.9%
Patrick O'Brien run for 6 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
14.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for no gain to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
14.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Johnny HernandezSimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
15.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:5015% → 34%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
14.5%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 16 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
15.4%
Bryson Carroll run for 15 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
16.8%
Bryson Carroll run for 6 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
17.2%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to PATTERSON III, (HICKS, J.), PENALTY CSU offside defense (BATES, J.) 5 yards to the CSU38, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
17.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 15 yds to the ColSt 23 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+5
17.8%
Sheriron Jones run for 5 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
17.8%
Daevon Vigilant run for 2 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-5
17.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+7
16.5%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 7 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+7
16.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 7 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
17.1%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+1
17.1%
Bryson Carroll run for 1 yd to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+10
16.6%
Sheriron Jones run for 10 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.3%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2177% → 79%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+30
23.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 30 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
20.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+20
20.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 20 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
19.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-5
19.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, SUB (-5 Yards) to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
20.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 12
OPP 19
-9
21.0%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Jacobi Hearn for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 21
OPP 28
+46
21.1%
Cayden Camper 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
25.5%
Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-6
27.0%
Emmanuel Logan-Greene run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 27 Emmanuel Logan-Greene fumbled, recovered by ColSt Dequan JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:5785% → 96%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
14.6%
KINSEY JR., M. rush for 9 yards to the NM18 (VAINIKOLO, Alex;ROGERS, De'John), PENALTY CSU holding (McBRIDE, Tr.) 10 yards to the NM37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+14
15.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 14 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-3
14.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ColSt Patrick O'BrienSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+26
4.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 26 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25FUMBLE
13 plays · 54 yds · 0:005% → 7%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
5.0%
Sheriron Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
4.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 14 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
5.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+15
5.0%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to KRESS, Jordan, PENALTY CSU roughing passer (BOMBEK, J.) 15 yards to the CSU48, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
5.6%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to LOGAN-GREENE, E, PENALTY NM ineligible downfield on pass (MOSELY, Javon) 5 yards to the NM47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+10
5.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 10 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
5.9%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
5.7%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Daevon VigilantSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+11
5.5%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 11 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
6.4%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to MOLINA, Aaron, PENALTY CSU pass interference (BAILEY, K.) 15 yards to the CSU17, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
6.5%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Livingston Paogofie for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 21 Sheriron Jones fumbled, recovered by ColSt Dequan Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 1:3797% → 99%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
3.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
2.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 9 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
2.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
2.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-1
2.6%
Dante Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
1.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 56 yds, downed at the NMex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+32
1.4%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Andre Neal return for 17 yds to the NMex 29 COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dequan Jackson) to the NMex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:05
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)
+17.7
TD · Q3 10:14
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q2 4:13
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 87 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com