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FRES

Fresno State 24 at Air Force 43

AF
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-7.6AF 53.7%Cesar Silva 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 22 · Q2 0:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:07 · Cesar Silva 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−3.8Pregame prior+4.9Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:32: Ronnie Rivers run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +8.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:55: Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds for a TD, (D. Hammond III Run For Two-point Conversion) — AF win probability +11.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:18: Taven Birdow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +13.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:16: Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +15.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:22: Jorge Reyna pass intercepted for a TD Kyle Johnson return for 24 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +8.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 1 at FRES 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−2.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 2:55AF 4th & 1 at FRES 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−3.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−10.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:07FRES 4th & 16 at AF 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 10 at AF 39, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:00FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 13, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:56AF 4th & 1 at FRES 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−3.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−15.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:18FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 44, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:22FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 36, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:14AF 4th & 1 at FRES 33, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:24FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:07AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:51FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:48AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:32FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:55AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:18AF Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:16AF Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:22AF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:3640% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
59.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+6
59.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+29
59.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Cam Sutton for 29 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
59.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 6 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+39
59.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 39 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
59.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 4 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1759% → 61%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.7%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+18
58.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 18 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
58.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+53
60.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 53 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:1640% → 46%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
59.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 14 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
59.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
59.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
59.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 6 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
59.3%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
59.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Cam Sutton for 13 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
59.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+13
59.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 13 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
59.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 13 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
59.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
59.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 1 yd to the AFA 7Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:0356% → 62%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
55.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
55.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
56.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
56.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 6
50
+2
56.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
56.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
54.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
55.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
55.3%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
55.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
56.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
54.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:1242% → 53%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
58.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
56.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+17
56.1%
Derrion Grim run for 17 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
55.6%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Cam Sutton, broken up by Kyle JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
55.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+26
47.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3750% → 63%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
50.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
51.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Taven Birdow) to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+28
50.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 28 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
52.4%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
53.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
53.3%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
53.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+6
52.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
53.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
53.3%
Timothy Jackson run for no gain to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
52.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
63.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds for a TD, (D. Hammond III Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:4842% → 46%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
57.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 16 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
56.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
56.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 2 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-10
57.7%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Kyle Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+47
53.7%
Cesar Silva 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
51.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
57.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Keiti Iakopo) to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
56.1%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+3
54.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
54.6%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Kadin RemsbergSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
53.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
52.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Cam Sutton, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
52.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
53.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie Edwards, broken up by Jordan JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
54.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 27 yds, downed at the FrsSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:3858% → 73%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
58.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.2%
Timothy Jackson run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
59.1%
Benjamin Waters run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
57.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+3
56.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
59.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+6
59.2%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.7%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.3%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
65.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 12 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
64.1%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
63.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
64.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
66.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 35 yds, downed at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 7:3369% → 90%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
69.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 9 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+5
71.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
71.8%
Taven Birdow run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
72.6%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+20
72.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
73.5%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+3
73.5%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
73.5%
Joshua Stoner run for no gain to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
74.9%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+12
73.5%
Joshua Stoner run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
75.0%
Taven Birdow run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14INT TD
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:4712% → 4%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
88.0%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 23 Jorge Reyna fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Jorge ReynaSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+24
96.0%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted for a TD Kyle Johnson return for 24 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jamal GlaspieSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jamal GlaspieSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
96.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 6 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
95.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
96.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16END OF GAME
18 plays · 70 yds · 9:2898% → 99%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
97.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
97.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
97.7%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
97.7%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
97.7%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 4
50
+8
97.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
97.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
97.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
97.7%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
97.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
97.8%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+6
97.8%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
97.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
99.2%
Joshua Stoner run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
99.1%
Mike Schmidt run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:16
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q3 8:18
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q2 2:55
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds for a TD, (D. Hammond III Run For Two-point Conversion)
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com