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UNM

New Mexico 21 at San José State 32

SJSU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2019 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:57 · Alex Galland punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Home team on offense+22.6Pregame prior+6.0Score differential+13.9Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:56: Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:42: Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 80 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +14.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:12: Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jordan Kress for 34 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +7.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:11: Sheriron Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +9.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:52: Cedric Patterson III 38 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick) — UNM win probability +6.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:18UNM 4th & 7 at SJSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:50UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:07SJSU 4th & 1 at UNM 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:49SJSU 4th & 19 at UNM 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:49UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:57SJSU 4th & 7 at UNM 7, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:46SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 46, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54UNM 4th & 20 at UNM 46, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−2.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:28SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 37, up 19
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:22UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 21, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:57SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 30, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:02SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 29, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 19, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:47SJSU 4th & 8 at UNM 32, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:16SJSU 4th & 2 at UNM 7, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−3.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:38SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:50SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:56SJSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:42SJSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:12UNM Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:11UNM Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:52UNM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+39
67.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 39 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
67.4%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-2
67.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-8
67.4%
Josh Love sacked by Erin Austin for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 37 Josh Love fumbled, recovered by NMex Erin Austin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:0133% → 34%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
67.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
66.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 5 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
67.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
66.9%
Emmanuel Logan-Green run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+2
66.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
67.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
66.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the SJSt 12Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
66.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem Umeh, broken up by Viliami FehokoSimilar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+1
67.0%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 1 yd to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
66.5%
Andrew Shelley 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2867% → 69%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
66.8%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
66.7%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
66.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 19Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+26
66.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 26 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+38
67.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 38 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
67.5%
Isaiah Holiness run for 8 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
69.2%
Nick Nash run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
68.3%
Bryson Carroll run for no gain to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
68.4%
Bryson Carroll run for no gain to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
68.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
68.9%
Tyson Dyer punt, downed at the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:3970% → 69%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
69.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+16
69.6%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 16 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
69.7%
Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
69.7%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 6 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
69.4%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 1 yd to the NMex 17Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
69.5%
Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
70.4%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
70.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Donte MartinSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-7
70.0%
Josh Love sacked by Jacobi Hearn for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 19Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 14
OPP 19
-5
68.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 19
OPP 24
+41
68.7%
Matt Mercurio 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nahje Flowers Nahje Flowers return for no gain to the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
66.5%
PENALTY SJSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
68.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
68.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
68.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
69.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 60 yds , Brandon Ezell returns for no gain to the SJSt 28 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, illegal block (5 Yards) to the SJSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 2:0469% → 78%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
69.3%
LOVE, Josh sideline pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre, PENALTY NM pass interference (MARTIN, Donte) 4 yards to the SJSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 6
OWN 11
+69
69.5%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 69 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
70.7%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-6
70.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 9 yds to the NMex 11 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+21
69.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 21 yds to the NMex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Donte MartinSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.7%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the NMex 5Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8INT
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
75.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 21Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+8
75.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 8 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+10
75.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 10 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
75.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 14 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
74.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
74.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
74.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 5 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
73.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
73.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted, touchback. Brandon Ezell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
87.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 80 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
88.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-4
88.6%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 2 Bryson Carroll fumbled, recovered by SJSt Isa'ako TogiaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2889% → 90%
Q2 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
88.5%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 4Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
88.2%
NEVENS, Tyler rush for 4 yards to the NM0, clock 07:48, PENALTY SJSU holding (HOPPE, Kyle) 10 yards to the NM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
88.1%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 7 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
87.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 6:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
89.5%
Matt Mercurio 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.6%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
88.7%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Brandon Ezell return for 10 yds to the NMex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4891% → 93%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
90.7%
LOVE, Josh deep out pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre (MARTIN, Donte), PENALTY NM pass interference (MARTIN, Donte) 15 yards to the NM10, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
90.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
90.9%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the NMex 5Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
90.8%
Josh Love sacked by Trent Sellers for a loss of 11 yards to the NMex 16Similar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
92.8%
Matt Mercurio 33 yd FG GOOD NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:087% → 15%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.4%
Sheriron Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
93.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
93.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Q' Drennan for 10 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
93.0%
Sheriron Jones run for 29 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
92.2%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 34 Ahmari Davis fumbled, forced by Kyle Harmon,Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+34
85.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jordan Kress for 34 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:2690% → 91%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
90.0%
LOVE, Josh pass complete to HUMPHREYS, Bill for 5 yards to the SJSU30, out-of-bounds (BURTON, Brandon), PENALTY SJSU holding (OSELAND, Quinn) 10 yards to the SJSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+12
89.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
90.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 15 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
91.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Alex HartSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+4
91.0%
Josh Love run for 4 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
90.6%
Alex Galland punt for 29 yds, downed at the NMex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (Kameron Miller) to the NMex 15Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+13
87.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 13 yds to the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
86.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Ahmari Davis for 5 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+10
86.4%
Ahmari Davis run for 10 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.0%
Sheriron Jones run for no gain to the NMex 46 Sheriron Jones fumbled, forced by Kyle Harmon, recovered by NMex Emmanuel Logan-GreenSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 20
OWN 46
0
87.7%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Bryson Carroll, broken up by Cade HallSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 20
OWN 46
0
87.8%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreenSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 20
OWN 46
+4
87.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 39 yds , Brandon Ezell returns for 4 yds to the 50 yard line SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
92.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 10 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
92.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
92.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 3 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+4
92.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 4 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
91.9%
Alex Galland punt for 51 yds , De'John Rogers returns for no gain to the NMex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19FUMBLE
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:1110% → 9%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
90.4%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Jay LenardSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+9
90.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 9 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
90.2%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+4
90.4%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
90.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 35 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
89.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+10
88.9%
Sheriron Jones run for 10 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
90.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 9 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+6
90.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 6 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
90.7%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jordan Kress, broken up by Zamore ZiglerSimilar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
90.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the SJSt 10 Ahmari Davis fumbled, forced by Rico Tolefree, recovered by SJSt Rico TolefreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
94.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 15 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by De'John RogersSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.7%
Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
94.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Donte MartinSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
94.2%
Alex Galland punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:227% → 17%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
92.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+24
92.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 24 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
91.7%
Bryson Carroll run for 28 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.6%
Sheriron Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0988% → 89%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.2%
Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
88.2%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 29Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-2
88.9%
Alex Galland punt for 46 yds , De'John Rogers returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4712% → 10%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
88.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-10
88.4%
DAVIS, Ahmari rush up middle for 3 yards to the NM27 (HARMON, Kyle;JOHNSON, Christ), PENALTY NM holding (SYLVESTER, Jarr) 10 yards to the NM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+4
88.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Javohn Jones for 4 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+1
88.8%
Sheriron Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 19 Sheriron Jones fumbled, recovered by NMexSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
89.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 46 yds , Brandon Ezell returns for no gain to the SJSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:0491% → 95%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
90.8%
LOVE, Josh deep out pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre (JONES, Jr., Jef), PENALTY NM roughing passer (VAINIKOLO, Alex) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
50
-2
91.3%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+18
91.1%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 18 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to JaQuan Blackwell, broken up by De'John RogersSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
91.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 7 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
91.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to JaQuan Blackwell, broken up by Donte MartinSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 3
OPP 27
-5
90.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
94.8%
Matt Mercurio 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
93.6%
Sheriron Jones run for 21 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.2%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Nehemiah Shelton return for no gain to the SJSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:5796% → 98%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
95.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+7
95.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 7 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
95.7%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
95.7%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
95.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 7 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
95.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
95.8%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to BRADDOCK, Jerma, PENALTY NM holding (ROGERS, De'John) 10 yards to the NM20, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
96.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 1 yd to the NMex 14Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
96.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+4
96.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 4 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
98.1%
Matt Mercurio 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:183% → 9%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
97.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 8 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+15
97.2%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to GRIFFIN IV, Jay, dropped pass, PENALTY SJSU roughing passer (HALL, Cade) 15 yards to the SJSU43, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
97.1%
Sheriron Jones run for 5 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+38
91.0%
Cedric Patterson III 38 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1494% → 95%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.2%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to DeJon PackerSimilar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
94.0%
Nick Nash run for 6 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-1
95.4%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
95.0%
Alex Galland punt for 46 yds, downed at the NMex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 29INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
96.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jordan Kress for 12 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
96.5%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+14
96.7%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Rico Tolefree return for 14 yds to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
96.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-3
96.3%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+11
96.1%
DeJon Packer run for 11 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 15Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 17Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 13
OPP 17
-2
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:42
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 80 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+14.2
TD · Q3 3:11
Sheriron Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q2 12:56
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com