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SDSU

San Diego State 24 at Colorado State 10

CSU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:37 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior−18.5Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:19: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:35: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:17: Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34 — SDSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:07: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:55: Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 13 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:37SDSU 4th & 4 at CSU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:37CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:32SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:21CSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:12SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:07CSU 4th & 18 at CSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:19CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:17SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:47CSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−10.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:35CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:20SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:13CSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−1.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:17SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:36SDSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−4.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:58SDSU 4th & 27 at SDSU 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:18CSU 4th & 18 at CSU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:18SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:47SDSU 4th & 1 at CSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−1.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−1.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:49SDSU 4th & 1 at CSU 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:19SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:35SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:07SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:55CSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:2369% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+42
30.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 42 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
30.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+18
30.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 18 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
30.6%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
30.6%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
30.6%
Ryan Agnew run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
31.7%
Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
31.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
31.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
32.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
32.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
32.1%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
32.2%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
32.3%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+15
32.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 30 , Dante Wright returns for 15 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:3233% → 35%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
33.1%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-3
32.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+57
32.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 57 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
34.1%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
34.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+5
33.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
33.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
35.4%
Cayden Camper 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
34.7%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek and Cam'ron Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+10
35.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 10 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
34.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 5 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
34.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
36.3%
Christian Hunter run for 3 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-5
36.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 12Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 12
OWN 12
-6
35.7%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Darren Hall and Keshawn Banks for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 6Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 18
OWN 6
0
35.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the ColSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:4265% → 70%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
34.9%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
35.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 7 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+14
35.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 14 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
34.4%
Juwan Washington run for 14 yds to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
34.4%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
29.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
31.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-1
31.0%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Cameron Thomas and Caden McDonald for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+12
30.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 56 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 12 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
30.7%
BJ Busbee run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
30.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
30.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jordan Byrd for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 13
OWN 34
-7
32.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 54 yds for a 1ST down , Dante Wright returns for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (2 Yards) to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10DOWNS
20 plays · 95 yds · 6:5531% → 32%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
31.2%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+11
31.2%
Marcus McElroy run for 11 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
31.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Adam Prentice for 7 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+3
31.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+21
32.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 21 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
33.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
33.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+10
33.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 10 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
34.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 9 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+5
34.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Myles Cheatum) to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
34.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-Myers, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
34.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+6
33.6%
Patrick O'Brien run for 6 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+12
33.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 12 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
34.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.8%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
31.5%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0572% → 72%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
28.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 3Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+10
28.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 10 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
28.1%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -14 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
30.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 11 Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, forced by Kyahva Tezino, recovered by SDSt Dwayne Johnson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1974% → 82%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
26.0%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 12Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+4
26.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
17.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nikko Hall for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
20.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
20.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante Wright, broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 48 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 36 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (Parker Houston) to the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
18.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 7
-3
18.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Kyle Spalding) to the SDSt 4Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 18
OWN 4
0
18.6%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 4Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 18
OWN 4
+10
18.7%
Juwan Washington run for 10 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 14
-1
19.0%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Devin Phillips for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
19.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
20.3%
Dante Wright run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
20.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 5 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-1
20.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
19.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Ty McCullouchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
15.0%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+8
15.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+8
14.5%
Chance Bell run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
50
-4
13.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+1
14.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 1 yd to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
14.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Isaiah Richardson, broken up by Keevan BaileySimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
15.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0015% → 17%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
14.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Christian Hunter for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 6Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+4
14.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Christian Hunter for 4 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+15
14.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Tayler Hawkins) to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.8%
Christian Hunter run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Christian HunterSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
14.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nikko Hall for 19 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
16.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass intercepted Luq Barcoo return for no gain to the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
12.1%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
12.1%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-12
12.5%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Damion Dickens for a loss of 12 yards to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 19
OWN 9
0
12.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
50
-10
14.7%
Justice McCoy pass intercepted Luq Barcoo return for 5 yds to the COLOST 45 COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Butler) to the ColSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:2290% → 98%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
10.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 22 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
9.5%
Ryan Agnew run for 1 yd to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
9.5%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+6
9.7%
AGNEW, Ryan pass incomplete to HOUSTON, Parker (HICKS, Jamal), PENALTY CSU pass interference (HICKS, Jamal) 6 yards to the CSU2, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
9.4%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 3Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.9%
Justice McCoy pass intercepted Luq Barcoo return for no gain to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · -17 yds · 2:0198% → 99%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
2.3%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 14
OWN 24
-12
2.3%
BYRD, Jordan rush for 19 yards to the SDSU43 (CAMERON, Marshaun), PENALTY SDSU personal foul (DEDEAUX, Ethan) 12 yards to the SDSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 26
OWN 12
+4
2.3%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 22
OWN 16
0
1.5%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 22
OWN 16
-5
1.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Kyree Woods) to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 27
OWN 11
0
1.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-11
2.6%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Kyahva Tezino for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 21
OWN 33
0
2.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nikko HallSimilar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 21
OWN 33
+3
2.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 3 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
2.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.2%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
1.2%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-4
1.2%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 11
OWN 19
-3
1.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 52 yds , Dante Wright returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 1:002% → 8%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
1.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 20 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+41
1.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 41 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
7.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 13 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27DOWNS
23 plays · 44 yds · 5:0696% → 99%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
3.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
3.5%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
3.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Parker Houston, broken up by Jamal HicksSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
3.6%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
3.4%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+9
3.3%
Juwan Washington run for 9 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
3.3%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+6
3.3%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
1.0%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the ColSt 5Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.9%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.9%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.8%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 3
OWN 8
0
1.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nikko Hall, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
1.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 5 yds to the ColSt 9 lat. to Dante Wright for 3 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 2
OWN 9
-1
1.4%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Jalil Lecky for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 8Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.9%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:35
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q4 13:07
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q4 5:55
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 13 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com