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AF

Air Force 25 at Navy 34

NAVY
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Owen White punt for 48 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−8.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:36: Malcolm Perry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:38: Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +24.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:15: Taven Birdow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — AF win probability +36.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:23: Malcolm Perry 3 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick) — NAVY win probability +59.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Tony Brown 8 Yd Fumble Return — NAVY win probability +13.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:09AF 4th & 2 at NAVY 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:09NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:20AF 4th & 7 at AF 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24AF 4th & 5 at AF 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:39AF 4th & 2 at NAVY 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−1.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:17AF 4th & 10 at NAVY 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:36NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:34AF 4th & 16 at NAVY 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:34NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 47, up 5
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:29AF 4th & 19 at AF 10, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−3.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:36AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:42NAVY 4th & 5 at AF 24, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:26AF 4th & 8 at NAVY 8, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−7.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:38NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:42NAVY 4th & 1 at AF 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.5%−10.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−19.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00AF 4th & 10 at AF 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 13:24NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:39NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:36NAVY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:38AF Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−1.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:15AF Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.8 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.8%−1.8
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:23NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.1%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
41.1%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
41.1%
SMITH, Nelson rush for 2 yards to the NAVY40 (DONALDSON, Gran;FIFITA, Mosese), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (HONAKER, Billy) 15 yards to the NAVY23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+3
41.1%
CJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 26
-5
41.1%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 27
OWN 21
+8
41.1%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
41.1%
Owen White punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
42.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+22
42.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 22 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
41.9%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
42.0%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+25
42.2%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 25 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
41.7%
Christian Mallard run for 2 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
41.7%
Joshua Stoner run for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+5
41.9%
Donald Hammond III pass intercepted Evan Fochtman return for 5 yds to the Navy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
43.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
43.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA Mosese FifitaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
42.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
42.3%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+11
42.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the Navy 33 Kadin Remsberg fumbled, forced by J'arius Warren, recovered by Navy Jackson Pittman , return for 11 yds to the Navy 33 Jackson Pittman fumbled, forced by J'arius Warren, recovered by AFA Parker FergusonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1458% → 57%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
42.5%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
42.4%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+3
42.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
43.0%
Jake Koehnke 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
43.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
43.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-1
43.3%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
42.6%
Owen White punt for 44 yds , Ben Peterson returns for no gain to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
43.2%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
43.1%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Benjamin WatersSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
43.7%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Kade WaguespackSimilar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
44.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 39 yds , Garrett Winn returns for no gain to the Navy 37 Garrett Winn fumbled, recovered by Navy Garrett WinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:4444% → 50%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
43.9%
CJ Williams run for no gain to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+38
43.8%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 38 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
45.8%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 24 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.9%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.2%
Nelson Smith 1 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.1%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
47.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
48.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA Christian MallardSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
49.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Garrett Winn at the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:5249% → 62%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
49.2%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+22
49.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 22 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
51.2%
CJ Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-1
51.0%
Tazh Maloy run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+9
50.2%
Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
51.2%
CJ Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+28
51.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 28 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.2%
Nelson Smith 3 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:2240% → 38%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.6%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
59.9%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders, broken up by Diego FagotSimilar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
60.8%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 13 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
58.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 17 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
57.4%
Christian Mallard run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+2
57.5%
Joshua Stoner run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+3
57.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+4
58.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
56.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 12 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
56.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-2
56.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
57.7%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
61.9%
Jake Koehnke 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:4163% → 63%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
63.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
62.9%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+4
63.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-5
63.8%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
62.5%
Owen White punt for 54 yds, downed at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
63.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:2636% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
64.2%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+42
63.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 42 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
59.8%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
59.8%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-7
62.0%
Donald Hammond III sacked by Paul Carothers for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+49
58.7%
Jake Koehnke 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
62.0%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
62.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+1
61.3%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
59.7%
Owen White punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
58.4%
Benjamin Waters run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 15
OWN 14
0
59.0%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 15
OWN 14
-4
60.2%
Donald Hammond III sacked by Jacob Springer for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 19
OWN 10
0
61.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:1765% → 80%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
65.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+12
65.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 12 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
66.1%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
66.1%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the AFA 20Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+20
79.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0022% → 25%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
77.9%
HAMMOND III, DJ pass complete to SANDERS, Geraud for 21 yards to the AF46, PENALTY AF pass interference (WAGUESPACK, Kad) 12 yards to the AF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+47
78.1%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 47 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
74.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 13
OPP 43
0
75.2%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders, broken up by Evan FochtmanSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+10
76.6%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Daniel Morris for 10 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
75.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:5781% → 85%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
80.8%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+37
80.6%
Nelson Smith run for 37 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
82.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
82.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+2
81.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
84.5%
Bijan Nichols 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1619% → 22%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+29
81.4%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for 29 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
77.7%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
76.4%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+19
77.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 19 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
77.0%
Christian Mallard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
77.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
78.4%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
77.6%
Jake Koehnke 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0079% → 81%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
79.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+3
78.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+15
77.9%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 36 Malcolm Perry fumbled, forced by Kyle Johnson, recovered by Navy Kevin Brennan for a 1ST down , return for 15 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.5%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 37 Nelson Smith fumbled, forced by Mosese Fifita, recovered by AFA Grant DonaldsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:4822% → 46%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
78.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
77.1%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Joshua StonerSimilar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
78.9%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 10 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
76.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 9 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+6
76.3%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
76.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
76.3%
Joshua Stoner run for 6 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.0%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (Jackson Pittman) to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.2%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.6%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
61.0%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
61.0%
Owen White punt for 40 yds, downed at the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:4241% → 86%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
59.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 21 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
54.4%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+41
53.9%
Chance Stevenson pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 41 yds to the Navy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
50.9%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
50.9%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.1%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:5229% → 93%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
28.8%
Chance Warren pass complete to Tazh Maloy for 18 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
33.1%
PERRY, Malcolm rush for no gain to the NAVY43, out-of-bounds (DONALDSON, Gran), PENALTY NAVY holding (HONAKER, Billy) 10 yards to the NAVY33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 20
OWN 33
0
28.6%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete, broken up by Jake KsiazekSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+32
28.0%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 32 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
37.9%
Mychal Cooper run for 7 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
37.8%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
37.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
37.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
35.0%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
27.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
34.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.2%
Malcolm Perry 3 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:2222% → 6%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.8%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Benjamin WatersSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
80.2%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders, broken up by Evan FochtmanSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 27
-8
93.6%
Tony Brown 8 Yd Fumble Return Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:23
Malcolm Perry 3 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)
+59.1
TD · Q4 3:15
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-36.8
TD · Q4 7:38
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
-24.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com