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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreUNLV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:44 · Ryan Galovich punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:09: Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +3.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:18: Sean Chambers run for 17 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe PAT MISSED) — WYO win probability +2.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:36: Sean Chambers pass complete to Josh Harshman for 56 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +5.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:53: Cooper Rothe 41 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +7.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:04: Sean Chambers pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 20 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +6.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 15:00WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snapGo for it71.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.5%average punt
- Q1 9:03UNLV 4th & 8 at WYO 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snapGo for it29.6%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call29.7%72% to makePunt29.0%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:09UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 46, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt29.5%−0.7average punt
- Q2 14:18UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 42, down 3Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it30.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:36UNLV 4th & 9 at WYO 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.3%−0.232% to convertField goal23.7%−0.925% to makePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q2 3:53WYO 4th & 8 at UNLV 24, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snapGo for it76.3%−0.433% to convertField goalTheir call76.7%68% to makePunt72.6%−4.1average punt
- Q2 2:08WYO 4th & 4 at UNLV 4, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snapGo for it83.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call82.6%−0.593% to makePunt77.5%−5.6average punt
- Q2 1:57UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 21, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snapGo for it14.2%−1.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%average punt
- Q2 1:04UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 31, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q3 15:00UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 45, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q3 12:44WYO 4th & 1 at UNLV 42, up 23Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snapGo for it94.2%70% to convertField goal93.0%−1.130% to makePuntTheir call93.3%−0.9average punt
- Q3 10:12UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 25, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q3 8:22WYO 4th & 7 at UNLV 44, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.6%−<0.137% to convertField goal95.2%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call95.6%average punt
- Q3 6:49UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 40, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q3 5:16WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 18, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q3 2:25UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 48, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.1%−0.6average punt
- Q4 10:24UNLV 4th & 1 at WYO 1, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%59% to convertField goal0.1%−0.394% to makePunt-0.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 9:18UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 21, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:35WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:50WYO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.2%97% to makeGo for two71.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:09UNLV Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.8%97% to makeGo for two32.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:18WYO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call70.6%97% to makeGo for two70.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:36WYO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.2%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:04WYO Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:49WYO Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:24UNLV Touchdown, down 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.4%97% to makeGo for two1.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:44WYO Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:26WYO Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
67.7%
Sean Chambers sacked by Kolo Uasike and Tavis Malakius for 0 yards to the Wyom 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
67.7%
Ryan Galovich punt for 31 yds , Jacob Gasser returns for 2 yds to the UNLV 32 UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2FG10 plays · 47 yds · 3:5933% → 34%
Q1 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+14
67.4%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 14 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+1
67.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Jacob Gasser for 1 yd to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+15
67.2%
ROGERS, Armani pass incomplete to GRIMES, Randal, PENALTY WYO pass interference 15 yards to the WYO24, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1367% → 69%
UNLVDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4132% → 36%
Q1 1:09
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+54
64.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5164% → 69%
Q2 14:18
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+17
68.9%
Sean Chambers run for 17 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
67.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 6 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+21
67.4%
Hayes Hicken punt for 44 yds , Austin Conway returns for 21 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7TD3 plays · 65 yds · 1:2068% → 74%
UNLVDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 10:36
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
73.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Darran Williams, broken up by Logan WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+6
73.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Courtney Reese for 6 yds to the Wyom 45Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 9
OPP 45
+19
73.7%
Hayes Hicken punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 32 , Austin Conway returns for 19 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9FG9 plays · 44 yds · 3:4875% → 82%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
76.4%
CHAMBERS, Sean pass intercepted by WHITE, Javin at the WYO9, WHITE, Javin return to the UNLV36 (ABOJEI, Eric), PENALTY UNLV holding 10 yards to the UNLV26, 1ST DOWN WYO, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10INT3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
WYODrive 11FG6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0084% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:1116% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13TD5 plays · 58 yds · 0:4588% → 94%
Q2 1:49
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+20
87.6%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Austin Conway for 20 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
88.4%
UNLV Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
94.4%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 20 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 1:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
92.1%
Hayes Hicken punt for 53 yds , Austin Conway returns for 7 yds to the Wyom 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
92.3%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Noah Bean for 20 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass incomplete to Randal Grimes UNLV Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-12
91.8%
Kenyon Oblad sacked by Davon Wells-Ross for a loss of 12 yards to the UNLV 34 UNLV Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 34
+11
92.4%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Randal Grimes for 11 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+19
92.3%
Hayes Hicken punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 35 , Austin Conway returns for 19 yds to the Wyom 35 Austin Conway fumbled, forced by Bryce Jackson,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.6%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Darran Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+2
94.7%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 2 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+21
94.7%
Hayes Hicken punt for 43 yds , Austin Conway returns for 21 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
95.9%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 21 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.7%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 4 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+5
96.0%
Hayes Hicken punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 19 , Austin Conway returns for 5 yds to the Wyom 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
UNLVDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 21 yds · 1:193% → 3%
WYODrive 22TD6 plays · 47 yds · 2:3098% → 100%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
98.2%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Austin Conway for 28 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23TD16 plays · 75 yds · 4:250% → 1%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 12 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass incomplete to Randal Grimes, broken up by Keyon BlankenbakerSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+17
99.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Noah Bean for 17 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Tyree Jackson for 4 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+20
99.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Randal Grimes for 20 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-10
99.8%
OBLAD, Kenyon pass complete to JENKINS, Steve for no gain to the WYO22 (WILSON, Logan), PENALTY UNLV illegal block 10 yards to the WYO32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+19
99.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 19 yds to the Wyom 13Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass incomplete to Randal Grimes, broken up by Alijah HalliburtonSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+10
99.8%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Randal Grimes for 10 yds to the Wyom 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24TD3 plays · 45 yds · 0:3899% → 100%
UNLVDrive 25INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
99.9%
Kenyon Oblad pass intercepted Cassh Maluia return for 30 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26TD1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Randal Grimes for 3 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-6
99.9%
Kenyon Oblad sacked by Davon Wells-Ross for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 21 Kenyon Oblad fumbled, recovered by UNLV Noah Bean , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Hayes Hicken punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 28PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-4
99.9%
Ryan Galovich punt for 37 yds , Jacob Gasser returns for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 29INT6 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
99.9%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Darran Williams for 7 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Kenyon Oblad pass intercepted, touchback. Rome Weber return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 30END OF GAME6 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 3:53
Cooper Rothe 41 yd FG GOOD
+7
TD · Q2 1:04
Sean Chambers pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 20 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+6
TD · Q2 10:36
Sean Chambers pass complete to Josh Harshman for 56 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+5.5