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CSU

Colorado State 24 at Utah State 34

USU
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:55 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+39.6Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:03: Jordan Love pass intercepted for a TD Andre Neal return for 44 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:03: COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 8 — CSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:08: Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 40 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — CSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:57: Dominik Eberle 48 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 9:32: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, forced by David Woodward, recovered by UthSt David Woodward , return for 8 yds, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — CSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 10CSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:18CSU 4th & 1 at USU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:55USU 4th & 9 at USU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:55CSU 4th & 25 at CSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40USU 4th & 7 at CSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:20CSU 4th & 12 at USU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:41USU 4th & 11 at CSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:41CSU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.0
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:43CSU 4th & 7 at USU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:17CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:19USU 4th & 10 at CSU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−1.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:35CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:24USU 4th & 5 at USU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:57USU 4th & 6 at CSU 31, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:57CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−3.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00USU 4th & 1 at USU 17, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−2.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:58USU 4th & 7 at CSU 38, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−0.9
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%−1.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:32CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:39USU 4th & 4 at USU 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:48CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 29, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:47USU 4th & 3 at CSU 14, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−1.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:14CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:01USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:24CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:00USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:03CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
93.3%
Patrick O'Brien run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
93.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.9%
Jordan Love run for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
92.9%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.9%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the ColSt 49 Gerold Bright fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Jones, recovered by ColSt Rashad AjayiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
92.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
92.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-1
92.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
92.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-1
92.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
92.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
92.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen BatesSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
91.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
91.9%
Pierce Callister punt blocked by Troy Golden blocked by Troy GoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:038% → 10%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
91.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante Wright, broken up by Andre GraysonSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
91.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+15
91.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 15 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Rashad Ajayi, broken up by DJ WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
91.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 2Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
91.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 22 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
90.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-13
90.9%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Cameron Haney for a loss of 13 yards to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 23
OWN 32
-5
91.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 28
OWN 27
+3
91.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 25
OWN 30
0
91.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
90.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
90.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 7 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
90.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
90.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
90.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
90.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
90.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
90.6%
Pierce Callister punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1610% → 15%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.7%
Patrick O'Brien run for no gain to the ColSt 20Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
89.8%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to AJAYI, R., PENALTY USU holding (WILLIAMS, DJ) 9 yards to the CSU33, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+65
89.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 65 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 2Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.2%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to McBRIDE, Tr. (WOODWARD, David), PENALTY USU roughing passer (TE'I, Justus) 1 yards to the USU1, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:2486% → 89%
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
86.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 13 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
86.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 6 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
86.6%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
86.7%
Gerold Bright run for 11 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
89.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 37 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:4012% → 13%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
87.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 32 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
86.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+5
86.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
86.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-2
87.0%
Patrick O'Brien run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+51
86.8%
Cayden Camper 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1788% → 83%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
87.5%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+44
83.0%
Jordan Love pass intercepted for a TD Andre Neal return for 44 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
75.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:2277% → 72%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
77.2%
Jordan Love run for 9 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+6
77.5%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
78.0%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
78.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+34
74.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 34 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
76.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+8
76.0%
Jordan Love run for 8 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-4
76.0%
Jordan Love sacked by Emmanuel Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
75.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for no gain to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
71.7%
Dominik Eberle 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
70.5%
Dante Wright run for 20 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
69.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 5
50
0
69.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 5
50
0
69.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-Myers, broken up by Dalton BakerSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 5
50
0
70.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 32 yds, downed at the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:2667% → 63%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
67.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-5
67.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 18Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
67.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 9 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
67.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
67.2%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
67.9%
Gerold Bright run for 11 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
68.8%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
68.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
69.1%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
69.1%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+40
63.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 40 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5741% → 43%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
59.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
57.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 yds, downed at the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
59.2%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
58.7%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Keevan Bailey return for no gain to the UthSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0145% → 45%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
54.7%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to CRAIG-MYERS, N., PENALTY CSU ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY USU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
54.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
54.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 14:44
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
55.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
55.4%
Cayden Camper 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20FUMBLE
10 plays · 66 yds · 0:0057% → 60%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
57.0%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+3
58.0%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
58.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 19 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
59.6%
LOVE, Jordan pass incomplete to REPP, Caleb, PENALTY CSU pass interference (HICKS, J.) 15 yards to the CSU27, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
60.4%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+5
60.4%
Jordan Love run for 5 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
60.4%
Gerold Bright run for 12 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.4%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the ColSt 1Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
60.4%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 6 Jordan Love fumbled, recovered by ColSt Andre NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
49.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 8 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+1
49.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 1
OWN 15
-5
50.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 10Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
50.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
51.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
48.8%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
48.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 5 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+5
49.3%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
49.8%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
49.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
48.8%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
47.5%
Pierce Callister punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
39.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
39.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+3
40.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
41.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
41.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+7
40.1%
Jordan Love run for 7 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
41.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
41.2%
Pierce Callister punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+35
33.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 35 yds EJ Scott fumbled, forced by Cameron Haney, recovered by UthSt Dalton BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5939% → 34%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
38.5%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 7
50
+15
38.5%
Gerold Bright run for 15 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.9%
Riley Burt run for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
39.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon Scarver, broken up by Andre NealSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+4
38.4%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
33.9%
Dominik Eberle 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
28.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
27.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
27.3%
Dante Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-6
28.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+6
28.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 6 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
29.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 57 yds, downed at the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5126% → 25%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
26.3%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+2
26.5%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+3
25.0%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+5
25.2%
Pierce Callister punt for 36 yds , Dante Wright returns for 5 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 29FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0082% → 83%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
17.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 5 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
17.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
17.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Jeff Taylor) to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+10
18.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 10 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
17.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the UthSt 29 Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, forced by David Woodward, recovered by UthSt Tipa GaleaiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
21.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
21.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 4 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+7
22.6%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
23.5%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-5
24.7%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Savon Scarver) to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+11
23.4%
Jordan Love run for 11 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
24.3%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
24.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
23.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
23.1%
Pierce Callister punt for 34 yds, downed at the ColSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 31FUMBLE TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
10.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, forced by David Woodward, recovered by UthSt David Woodward , return for 8 yds, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante Wright, broken up by Troy Lefeged Jr.Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
11.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
11.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
11.1%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
12.2%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
12.0%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
11.7%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
11.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins, broken up by Marshaun CameronSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
10.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 6 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
11.9%
Pierce Callister punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 34DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
6.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 11 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
6.1%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
6.0%
Patrick O'Brien run for 3 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
6.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+4
5.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marcus McElroy for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 35END OF GAME
13 plays · 25 yds · 2:286% → 3%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
5.6%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
5.3%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
5.1%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+4
3.3%
Jordan Love run for 4 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+4
3.2%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+7
2.8%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+96.9
FUMBLE · Q4 9:32
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, forced by David Woodward, recovered by UthSt David Woodward , return for 8 yds, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q2 10:03
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 8
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com