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SAC

Sacramento State 20 at Fresno State 34

FRES
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSAC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-28.5FRES 58.8%Kevin Thomson pass complete to IsaiahBailey for 18 yds for a TD, (B.Perkinson Run For Two-pointConversion)AWAY 20 - HOME 20 · Q4 12:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:05 · Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Bailey for 18 yds for a TD, (B. Perkinson Run For Two-point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense−6.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:09: Kevin Thomson pass complete to BJ Perkinson for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SAC win probability +6.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:56: Josh Hokit run for 2 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller PAT MISSED) — FRES win probability +13.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:05: Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Bailey for 18 yds for a TD, (B. Perkinson Run For Two-point Conversion) — SAC win probability +28.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:41: Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +17.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:17: Josh Hokit run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +4.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SAC made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 11:55FRES 4th & 4 at SAC 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:55SAC 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:46FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 45, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00SAC 4th & 8 at SAC 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:32FRES 4th & 11 at SAC 18, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:32SAC 4th & 29 at SAC 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:32SAC 4th & 5 at SAC 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00SAC 4th & 7 at SAC 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:30FRES 4th & 1 at SAC 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:25FRES 4th & 11 at SAC 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:25SAC 4th & 12 at SAC 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36FRES 4th & 10 at SAC 41, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:05SAC 4th & 9 at SAC 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:06FRES 4th & 3 at midfield, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:24SAC 4th & 10 at SAC 1, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−3.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:41SAC 4th & 16 at SAC 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:10SAC 4th & 7 at SAC 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SAC made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 4:32FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:31SAC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:32FRES Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:09SAC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:56FRES Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:05SAC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:41FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−1.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:17FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:0595% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.7%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to SUTTON, Cam (BARNES, Caelan), PENALTY SAC pass interference (BARNES, Caelan) 15 yards to the FS40, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
94.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-3
94.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+10
94.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 10 yds to the SacSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
94.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 5 yds to the SacSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
94.7%
Josh Hokit pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+6
94.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 6 yds to the SacSt 32Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
94.1%
Cesar Silva 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
94.0%
THOMSON, Kevin sacked for loss of 3 yards to the SAC29 (CRUZ, Alex), PENALTY FS personal foul (CRUZ, Alex) 15 yards to the SAC47, 1ST DOWN SAC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
94.0%
Kevin Thomson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
50
0
93.9%
Kevin Thomson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 7
50
0
94.0%
Kevin Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 7
50
+42
94.0%
Sam Clark punt for 42 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 7:2394% → 93%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
94.0%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
94.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+41
94.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 41 yds to the SacSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
94.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the SacSt 48Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
94.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the SacSt 42Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+3
94.1%
Jorge Reyna run for 3 yds to the SacSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
94.1%
Jorge Reyna run for 1 yd to the SacSt 38Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+22
94.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 22 yds to the SacSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
94.1%
REYNA, Jorge pass complete to WHEATFALL, Keric for 4 yards to the SAC12 (BLAND, Daron), PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the SAC21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+6
94.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the SacSt 15Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+1
94.1%
Jorge Reyna run for 1 yd to the SacSt 14Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
93.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 14 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:007% → 8%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
93.1%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Pierre Williams for 26 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
92.8%
Kevin Thomson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
92.8%
Kevin Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
91.7%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Marshel Martin for 47 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4592% → 92%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
92.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 18 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
92.3%
Jalen Cropper run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-4
92.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
92.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Chris ColemanSimilar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
91.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:468% → 9%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
91.7%
Ja'Narrick James run for 4 yds to the SacSt 11Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
91.6%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+9
91.7%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 9 yds to the SacSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
91.5%
BJ Perkinson run for 3 yds to the SacSt 23Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
91.5%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SacSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+4
91.0%
Kevin Thomson run for 4 yds to the SacSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
91.2%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Bailey for no gain to the SacSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
91.4%
Sam Clark punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:0791% → 90%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+14
91.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 14 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
91.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 17 yds to the SacSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
91.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 7 yds to the SacSt 22Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+5
91.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the SacSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
91.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the SacSt 16Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
91.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Juan RodriguezSimilar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-2
91.3%
Jorge Reyna sacked by George Obinna for a loss of 2 yards to the SacSt 18Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+35
89.5%
Cesar Silva 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
89.0%
THOMSON, Kevin pass incomplete to COTTON, Dewey, PENALTY FS roughing passer (RICE, Justin) 15 yards to the SAC35, 1ST DOWN SAC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
88.8%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Pierre Williams for 6 yds to the SacSt 41Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
88.2%
Elijah Dotson run for 7 yds to the SacSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.2%
Elijah Dotson run for no gain to the SacSt 48Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
88.3%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 11 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-12
88.1%
Dewey Cotton run for 7 yds to the SacSt 34 SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, illegal block (Marshel Martin) to the SacSt 47Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 22
OWN 47
-4
88.6%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to BJ Perkinson for 11 yds to the FRESNOST 42 SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, personal foul (Pierre Williams) to the SacSt 43Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 26
OWN 43
0
88.7%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Elijah DotsonSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 26
OWN 43
-3
88.9%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Elijah Dotson for a loss of 3 yards to the SacSt 40Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 29
OWN 40
0
89.4%
Sam Clark punt for 44 yds, downed at the FrsSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:3489% → 92%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
88.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+8
88.5%
Jalen Cropper run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+23
88.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 23 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+46
88.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 46 yds to the SacSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.9%
THOMSON, Kevin sacked for loss of 3 yards to the SAC22 (RICE, Justin), PENALTY FS offside defense 5 yards to the SAC30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
90.3%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Pierre Williams, broken up by Ricky McCoySimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
90.6%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Isaiah Bailey, broken up by Arron MosbySimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
90.9%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Elijah Dotson, broken up by Justin RiceSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Sam Clark punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
90.5%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to WHEATFALL, Keric, PENALTY SAC pass interference (ROSS, Davion) 15 yards to the FS46, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+22
91.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 22 yds to the SacSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+40
91.4%
Zane Pope run for no gain to the FrsSt 28 Zane Pope fumbled, forced by Josiah Erickson, recovered by SacSt Isaiah Butler , return for 40 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 12TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:4112% → 19%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
88.2%
Kevin Thomson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+5
88.7%
Kevin Thomson run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
89.1%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Gable for 9 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
88.2%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Pierre Williams for 14 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.7%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to BJ Perkinson for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
85.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
84.7%
Elijah Dotson run for a loss of 6 yards to the SacSt 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
85.0%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+9
85.6%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Gable for 9 yds to the SacSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+28
85.8%
Sam Clark punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SacSt 41 , Ronnie Rivers returns for 28 yds to the SacSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:0586% → 82%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for no gain to the SacSt 41Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
86.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 9 yds to the SacSt 32Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
86.1%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the SacSt 32Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+1
85.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 1 yd to the SacSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
86.7%
Jorge Reyna run for 12 yds to the SacSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
86.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete, broken up by Jacob TorrezSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-10
86.7%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush for loss of 10 yards to the SAC29 (BRUCE, Marcus;PERRYMAN, Allen), PENALTY FS holding (POPE, Zane) 10 yards to the SAC29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+12
86.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 12 yds to the SacSt 17Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-3
86.2%
Jorge Reyna sacked by George Obinna and Dariyn Choates for a loss of 3 yards to the SacSt 20Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
82.4%
Cesar Silva 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
81.7%
Marcus Fulcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the SacSt 18Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
82.1%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Dewey CottonSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
82.9%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete, broken up by Justin RiceSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
83.5%
Sam Clark punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric Wheatfall, broken up by Allen PerrymanSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+17
82.5%
Jorge Reyna run for 2 yds to the SacSt 44 for a 1ST down SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jeremy Harris) to the SacSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
84.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
84.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Chris ColemanSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
83.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion Grim FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
81.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds, downed at the SacSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
81.0%
Elijah Dotson run for 4 yds to the SacSt 12Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+19
81.0%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Parker Clayton for 19 yds to the SacSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
80.2%
Kevin Thomson sacked by Alex Dumais for a loss of 8 yards to the SacSt 14 Kevin Thomson fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Mykal Walker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
83.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared Rice, broken up by Caelan BarnesSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
83.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the SacSt 13 Ronnie Rivers fumbled, forced by Marcus Hawkins, recovered by SacSt Marcus BruceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
79.8%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
80.0%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete, broken up by Ricky McCoySimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+1
81.0%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 1 yd to the SacSt 14Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
81.7%
Sam Clark punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
81.0%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
81.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 3
50
0
80.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 49 yds, downed at the SacSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
78.1%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to BJ Perkinson for no gain to the SacSt 1Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
78.4%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Dewey CottonSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
79.4%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Pierre Williams, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
80.3%
Sam Clark punt for 40 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for no gain to the SacSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2481% → 92%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
80.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
80.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Josh HokitSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+24
79.5%
Jorge Reyna run for 14 yds to the SacSt 27 for a 1ST down SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Marcus Bruce) to the SacSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
81.6%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to RICE, Jared, PENALTY SAC offside defense (OBINNA, George) 5 yards to the SAC12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 5
OPP 12
-12
81.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for a loss of 12 yards Ronnie Rivers fumbled, forced by Josiah Erickson, recovered by FrsSt Netane MutiSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 17
OPP 24
-7
80.3%
Jorge Reyna sacked by George Obinna for a loss of 7 yards to the SacSt 31Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 24
OPP 31
+29
78.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 29 yds to the SacSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.2%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5110% → 41%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
89.7%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Gable for 36 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
87.6%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Pierre Williams for 9 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
86.2%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to BJ Perkinson for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
86.2%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Marshel MartinSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
86.6%
Kevin Thomson run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+4
87.4%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Bailey for 4 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
58.8%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Bailey for 18 yds for a TD, (B. Perkinson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:1770% → 92%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
69.7%
Josh Hokit run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
72.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 1 yd to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+14
71.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 14 yds to the SacSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
74.0%
Josh Hokit run for 10 yds to the SacSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
75.0%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the SacSt 31Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
75.1%
Jalen Cropper run for 4 yds to the SacSt 27Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+5
73.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 5 yds to the SacSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
75.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 2 yds to the SacSt 20Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
75.1%
HOKIT, Josh rush for 3 yards to the SAC17 (ERICKSON,Josiah;HARRIS, Jeremy), PENALTY SAC illegal participation 5 yards to the SAC15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+6
75.1%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the SacSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
75.1%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the SacSt 7Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
88.0%
Kevin Thomson sacked by Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the SacSt 19Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
88.4%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
89.2%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Isaiah GableSimilar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
89.6%
Sam Clark punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 3:2693% → 98%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
92.6%
Josh Hokit run for 9 yds to the SacSt 46Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-10
92.8%
HOKIT, Josh rush for 2 yards to the SAC44 (CHAMBERS,Elijah;BRUCE, Marcus), PENALTY FS holding (SAMPSON JR., Tyrone) 10 yards to the FS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+16
92.4%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the SacSt 45 for a 1ST down SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, personal foul (Dariyn Choates) to the SacSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
92.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 21 yds to the SacSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
92.9%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the SacSt 14Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
97.8%
Josh Hokit run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
96.4%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 5 yds to the SacSt 13Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 13
-2
96.2%
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Elijah Dotson for a loss of 2 yards to the SacSt 11Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
96.3%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Isaiah GableSimilar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
96.4%
Kevin Thomson pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SacSt 12Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SacSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:05
Kevin Thomson pass complete to Isaiah Bailey for 18 yds for a TD, (B. Perkinson Run For Two-point Conversion)
-28.5
TD · Q4 6:41
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q4 14:56
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller PAT MISSED)
+13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com