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USU

Utah State 23 at San Diego State 17

SDSU
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+8.4SDSU 13.3%Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smithfor 25 yds for a TD, (Matt AraizaKICK)AWAY 23 - HOME 10 · Q4 10:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:03 · Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−23.7Score differential−8.3Pregame prior−1.8Garbage-time factor−8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:49: Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:36: Jaylen Warren run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +13.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:53: Dominik Eberle 32 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +7.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:03: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:19: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 49 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 7:49SDSU 4th & 5 at USU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:42USU 4th & 5 at USU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:52SDSU 4th & 6 at USU 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08USU 4th & 12 at SDSU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:01SDSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:27USU 4th & 13 at USU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:34SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:27USU 4th & 6 at SDSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:21SDSU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 10
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:53USU 4th & 4 at SDSU 15, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−8.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:47SDSU 4th & 14 at USU 14, down 20
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:14USU 4th & 20 at USU 42, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:03SDSU 4th & 16 at USU 25, down 20
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:03USU 4th & 3 at SDSU 43, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−2.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:19SDSU 4th & 5 at USU 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:18USU 4th & 2 at SDSU 25, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−4.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:18SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.2%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:00USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:36USU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:03SDSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:19SDSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 7:1139% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
39.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
39.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
39.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
39.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
39.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 15 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
39.0%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
39.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chance BellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+27
39.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 12 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
39.0%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
39.0%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
39.0%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
39.0%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
39.0%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
42.5%
Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
42.4%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
42.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 5 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
42.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
42.9%
Pierce Callister punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3INT TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:5543% → 41%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Ethan DedeauxSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
42.5%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+48
40.7%
Ryan Agnew pass intercepted for a TD Shaq Bond return for 48 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
40.3%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+15
40.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 15 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
41.1%
Chance Bell run for 12 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
41.4%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-2
41.4%
Ryan Agnew run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+2
41.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
40.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 28 yds, downed at the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:1759% → 63%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
40.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-10
40.7%
LOVE, Jordan pass complete to THOMPKINS, D. for 3 yards to the USU22 (THOMAS, Cameron;TEZINO, Kyahva), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the USU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+3
41.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 3 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+12
41.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 12 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
40.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 7 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
40.3%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+9
40.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 9 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
39.9%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
40.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+30
40.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 30 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
39.3%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
39.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+15
40.1%
LOVE, Jordan pass incomplete to MARINER, Siaosi (BARCOO, Luq), PENALTY SDSU pass interference 15 yards to the SDSU11, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
39.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-2
39.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
40.1%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the SDSt 13 Jordan Love fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jordan LoveSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
37.1%
Dominik Eberle 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
37.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 6 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+7
37.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
37.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+8
37.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
37.9%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 18 Chase Jasmin fumbled,Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 21
OWN 18
+4
37.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 4 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 17
OWN 22
-2
36.9%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 19
OWN 20
0
36.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
36.3%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+6
37.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 6 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
36.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 9 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
35.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Caleb ReppSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
35.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-3
36.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+13
37.4%
Pierce Callister punt for 52 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 13 yds to the SANDIEGOST 47 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
35.7%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
35.8%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 2
OWN 19
-3
35.2%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 16Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+34
34.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the SANDIEGOST 35 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:0167% → 68%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
50
+10
32.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 10 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
32.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+9
32.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 9 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
32.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 12 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
32.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
32.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
33.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
32.0%
Dominik Eberle 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
31.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 13 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
31.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+14
32.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 14 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
33.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chase JasminSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
33.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 8
50
0
32.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 8
50
0
31.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 0:3969% → 84%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
31.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
31.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 12 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
30.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon Scarver, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
31.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+48
32.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 48 yds to the SANDIEGOST 20 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
29.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 9 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
15.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2923% → 22%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
22.9%
Ryan Agnew run for 13 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
23.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 15
50
0
21.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 15
50
0
21.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 15
50
0
22.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:0081% → 90%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
19.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
19.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 7 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
18.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
18.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 7 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
18.0%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the UthSt 47Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+10
18.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
17.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 12 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
17.7%
LOVE, Jordan pass incomplete to THOMPKINS, D. (JOHNSON, Dwayne), PENALTY USU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SDSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+14
18.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Taylor Compton for 14 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+1
17.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
17.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Caleb ReppSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
17.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 7 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-1
17.8%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
10.2%
Dominik Eberle 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14DOWNS
14 plays · 55 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
13.5%
Ryan Agnew run for 4 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
13.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+6
13.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 6 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
14.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+11
14.3%
Ryan Agnew run for 11 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
14.7%
Jesse Matthews run for 7 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+1
15.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+4
14.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
15.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 20 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
15.2%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
15.2%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
16.0%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
0
13.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Ethan Dedeaux, broken up by Shaq BondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
4.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
4.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+11
4.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 11 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
4.6%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
4.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 3 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
4.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 10 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
4.2%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 12
50
0
4.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 12
50
-8
4.3%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 42 Jordan Love fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jordan LoveSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 20
OWN 42
0
4.9%
Pierce Callister punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:115% → 13%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
5.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jordan Byrd, broken up by Cameron HaneySimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
5.2%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+6
5.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 6 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
4.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 9 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
4.8%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
4.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 20 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
5.4%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-1
5.5%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+8
5.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
5.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by Cameron HaneySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-10
5.4%
BYRD, Jordan rush for 16 yards to the USU3 (WOODWARD, David), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the USU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 29
-7
5.3%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Jacoby Wildman for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 27
OPP 36
+11
4.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 11 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 16
OPP 25
+25
13.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.1%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
8.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 12 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
7.6%
Gerold Bright run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
50
+7
7.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 7 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
7.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon Scarver, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
7.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
8.3%
Pierce Callister punt for 34 yds , Tariq Thompson returns for no gain to the SDSt 9 Tariq Thompson fumbled, recovered by SDSt Tayler HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 3:0311% → 28%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
10.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+20
10.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 20 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
11.6%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+20
10.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 20 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
12.7%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+10
11.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 10 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
12.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chance Bell, broken up by Cameron HaneySimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+49
28.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 49 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:5681% → 95%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
19.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for no gain to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
19.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 16 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
16.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+11
16.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 11 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
15.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+7
15.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
15.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
15.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Andrew AlekiSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
15.7%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
5.4%
Dominik Eberle 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · -23 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
16.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 14 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
18.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete, broken up by Christopher UngaSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
18.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
16.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Isaiah RichardsonSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 10
OWN 39
-37
15.1%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Justus Te'i for a loss of 37 yards to the SDSt 2 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:19
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 49 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q2 0:36
Jaylen Warren run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q4 10:03
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com