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TOL

Toledo 41 at Colorado State 35

CSU
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:55 · Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds, downed at the ColSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior−7.6Home team on offense−13.4Garbage-time factor−3.9Score differential−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:21: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 74 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +13.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 13:08: Bryant Koback run for 75 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +13.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:10: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:39: Bryant Koback run for 47 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +14.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:33: Patrick O'Brien run for 1 yd for a TD, (Patrick O'Brien pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion) — CSU win probability +32.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:35TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:03TOL 4th & 22 at TOL 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:48CSU 4th & 5 at TOL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:48TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:54CSU 4th & 4 at TOL 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:22CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:11TOL 4th & 7 at CSU 49, up 1
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:00TOL 4th & 1 at CSU 45, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:39CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:55TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 43, up 8
    Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00CSU 4th & 6 at TOL 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−1.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:40CSU 4th & 11 at TOL 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−3.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−11.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:20TOL 4th & 8 at CSU 17, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−8.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:57TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.2%−7.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:31TOL 4th & 6 at CSU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−2.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−22.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:31CSU 4th & 4 at TOL 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−7.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−10.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:35CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:45TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:22TOL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:22TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:21CSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:08TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:10CSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:39TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:33CSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2529% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
29.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 8 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
29.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+14
29.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 14 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+37
29.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 37 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
29.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
29.3%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
32.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 6 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.0%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
31.9%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
31.8%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-8
32.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds , Dante Wright returns for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
33.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
33.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
33.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+15
33.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 15 yds to the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:0666% → 68%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
33.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
33.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+5
33.9%
GUADAGNI,M. pass incomplete to SEYMOUR,Shakif (BOMBEK, J.), QB hurry by HICKS, J., PENALTY CSU offside defense (AJAYI, R.) 5 yards to the TOLEDO49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
33.6%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
33.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
33.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
33.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
33.2%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+8
33.5%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
33.5%
GUADAGNI,M. sacked for loss of 1 yard to the 50 yardline (BATES, J.), PENALTY CSU personal foul (BATES, J.) 15 yards to the CSU34, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
32.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryant Koback for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.9%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
34.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
34.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
34.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
34.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
33.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
34.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
34.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+2
34.7%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 14 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 13
OWN 14
-5
35.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 9Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 18
OWN 9
-5
35.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 23
OWN 4
+1
35.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 5Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 22
OWN 5
0
35.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 72 yds, downed at the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:1936% → 39%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
36.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 12 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
36.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+6
36.4%
Patrick O'Brien run for 6 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
36.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
36.1%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to WRIGHT, D. (McDONALD,Chris), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDONALD,Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO49, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
38.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 22 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
38.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 8 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-3
38.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
37.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
38.8%
Cayden Camper 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
38.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
38.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Shakif SeymourSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 60 yds, downed at the ColSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
15 plays · 87 yds · 4:2139% → 49%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
38.6%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to JACKSON, W., QB hurry by MATHEWS,Edrick, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (WOMACK,Samuel) 15 yards to the CSU24, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
39.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Terrance Taylor) to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
39.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
50
-1
41.1%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Saeed Holt for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+7
40.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 7 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+12
40.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 12 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
41.6%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to CRAIG-MYERS, N., PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (WOMACK,Samuel) 15 yards to the TOLEDO17, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
41.6%
O'BRIEN, P. pass incomplete to JACKSON, W., PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDONALD,Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO2, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
41.6%
KINSEY JR., M. rush for no gain to the TOLEDO2 (HOLT,Saeed;WOMACK,Samuel), PENALTY CSU illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
45.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson COLORADO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
48.8%
Cayden Camper 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3254% → 68%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.6%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+56
44.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 56 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
32.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
37.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
36.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante Wright, broken up by Jordan FisherSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
35.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
35.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 22 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
33.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
35.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
35.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+8
35.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 8 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
35.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5038% → 37%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
37.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 24 COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 18
OWN 12
0
37.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass intercepted Kahlil Robinson return for no gain to the Toled 12 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4366% → 64%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
33.9%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 6
50
+5
33.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 5 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
33.2%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
36.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 92 yds · 0:4739% → 40%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
38.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 8 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+10
39.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 10 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
39.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
39.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
40.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
40.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 16 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+45
40.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 45 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3862% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.8%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+29
36.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 29 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
23.6%
Bryant Koback run for 37 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:5327% → 40%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
27.3%
Dante Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+74
40.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 74 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
26.3%
Bryant Koback run for 75 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5828% → 49%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
27.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 26 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
30.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+20
30.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Cameron Butler for 20 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
32.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 6 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+7
32.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 7 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
48.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3160% → 77%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
39.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+22
40.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 22 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
37.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
23.3%
Bryant Koback run for 47 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
29.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (T.J. Storment) to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
27.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Cameron Butler for 15 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
29.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
29.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+2
27.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 2 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
27.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
25.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
26.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Jamal HicksSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+22
26.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 22 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
24.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
23.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-2
23.3%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
25.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds, downed at the ColSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23MISSED FG
18 plays · 78 yds · 7:5625% → 23%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
24.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+4
24.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
24.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ Scott, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+25
24.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 25 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
27.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 15 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
28.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
28.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
28.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-5
27.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Scott Brooks) to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+15
25.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 15 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
30.8%
O'BRIEN, P. pass complete to JACKSON, W. for 3 yards to the TOLEDO23 (McDONALD,Chris;HINES,Jamal), PENALTY CSU illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+15
29.6%
Patrick O'Brien run for 15 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
30.8%
KINSEY JR., M. rush for 5 yards to the TOLEDO11 (ROBINSON,Kahlil;JOHNSON,Desjuan), PENALTY CSU illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 21
-10
30.0%
KINSEY JR., M. rush for 7 yards to the TOLEDO14 (BOLDEN,Daniel;MATHEWS,Edrick), PENALTY CSU holding (WESLEY, B.) 10 yards to the TOLEDO31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 31
+5
29.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+2
28.5%
Patrick O'Brien run for 2 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 24
+7
26.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 7 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
22.9%
Cayden Camper 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:2082% → 93%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
17.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
17.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
17.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 6 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
17.2%
Devin Maddox run for 19 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
14.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete, broken up by Livingston PaogofieSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
14.9%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
13.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 16 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
13.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Keevan BaileySimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
14.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
14.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
7.2%
Evan Davis 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 1:4211% → 48%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
10.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 14 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
11.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
10.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
10.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 13 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
12.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 29 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
15.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-Myers, broken up by Nate GivhanSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
15.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 10 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
15.6%
Patrick O'Brien run for 4 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.6%
Patrick O'Brien run for 1 yd for a TD, (Patrick O'Brien pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 4:0272% → 96%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.8%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
27.5%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 8 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
26.1%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
21.2%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
20.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+45
22.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 35 yds to the COLOST 20 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal block (Anthony Hawkins) to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
16.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the ColSt 9Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
16.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the ColSt 8Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
9.1%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
3.9%
Evan Davis 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 73 yds · 0:009% → 18%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
9.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 29 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
12.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
11.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 11 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
15.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
15.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
12.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Cameron Butler for 6 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+4
12.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 4 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
18.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to EJ Scott for 23 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:33
Patrick O'Brien run for 1 yd for a TD, (Patrick O'Brien pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion)
+32
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.3
TD · Q3 10:10
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com