View as
Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Cade Coffey punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:00: Roshaun Johnson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Cade Coffey KICK) — IDHO win probability +5.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:57: Trey Smith run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +7.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:16: Trey Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +24.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:20: Cade Coffey 24 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +12.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:57: Timeout IDAHO, clock 03:57 — WYO win probability +11.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9IDHO made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 11:20WYO 4th & 6 at IDHO 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snapGo for it50.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call50.9%58% to makePunt50.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 5:55IDHO 4th & 2 at WYO 9, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snapGo for it49.2%54% to convertField goalTheir call48.9%−0.289% to makePunt47.5%−1.7average punt
- Q1 5:55WYO 4th & 1 at IDHO 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.8%71% to convertField goal50.1%−0.649% to makePunt49.9%−0.8average punt
- Q1 1:13WYO 4th & 11 at IDHO 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snapGo for it49.4%−0.327% to convertField goalTheir call49.7%51% to makePunt49.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:28IDHO 4th & 24 at IDHO 11, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snapGo for it47.4%−3.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.8%average punt
- Q2 4:57IDHO 4th & 10 at IDHO 37, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it40.3%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.2%average punt
- Q2 1:19WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 35, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snapGo for it55.7%−1.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.2%average punt
- Q2 0:36IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 28, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snapGo for it37.6%−1.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snapGo for it40.0%−0.552% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.5%average punt
- Q3 13:30WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 33, up 4Close callPunted · 59.1% before the snapGo for it59.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 10:54IDHO 4th & 1 at WYO 36, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.8%71% to convertField goal36.7%−3.142% to makePunt36.3%−3.5average punt
- Q3 4:10IDHO 4th & 16 at WYO 17, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snapGo for it30.9%−3.214% to convertField goalTheir call34.1%80% to makePunt25.3%−8.8average punt
- Q3 4:10WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 29, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snapGo for it57.6%−1.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.7%average punt
- Q3 3:10IDHO 4th & 7 at WYO 39, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it42.9%37% to convertField goal41.2%−1.736% to makePuntTheir call41.4%−1.5average punt
- Q3 1:47WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 23, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snapGo for it56.9%−2.735% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.6%average punt
- Q4 15:00IDHO 4th & 14 at IDHO 25, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it33.3%−5.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.1%average punt
- Q4 14:22WYO 4th & 21 at WYO 17, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snapGo for it52.3%−7.68% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%average punt
- Q4 12:39IDHO 4th & 6 at WYO 49, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snapGo for it41.6%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.9%average punt
- Q4 7:20IDHO 4th & 7 at WYO 7, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snapGo for it15.2%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call15.3%91% to makePunt3.3%−12.0average punt
- Q4 7:20WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 29, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snapGo for it79.3%−1.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IDHO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:00IDHO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.7%97% to makeGo for two57.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:28WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.5%97% to makeGo for two48.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:57WYO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.5%97% to makeGo for two58.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:16WYO Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1MISSED FG12 plays · 46 yds · 3:4071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.2%
CHAMBERS, Sean pass incomplete to OKWOLI, John, PENALTY IDAHO roughing passer 15 yards to the WYO40, 1ST DOWN WYO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
71.2%
WYOMING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Wyom 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+23
71.2%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 23 yds to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2FG12 plays · 62 yds · 5:2530% → 32%
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+23
70.6%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Jeff Cotton for 23 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
70.2%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Jeff Cotton for 13 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+9
70.2%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Connor Whitney for 9 yds to the Wyom 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3MISSED FG12 plays · 43 yds · 4:4268% → 67%
IDHODrive 4TD9 plays · 68 yds · 4:1334% → 42%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
64.8%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Connor Whitney for 23 yds to the Wyom 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3258% → 66%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
59.4%
IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6PUNT6 plays · -14 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q2 7:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
62.3%
Mason Petrino sacked by Garrett Crall for a loss of 7 yards to the Idaho 22Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-11
63.6%
IDAHO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-11 Yards) to the Idaho 11Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 24
OWN 11
+45
63.6%
Cade Coffey punt for 48 yds , Austin Conway returns for 45 yds to the Idaho 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7TD2 plays · 14 yds · 0:4465% → 73%
IDHODrive 8PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
WYODrive 9PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 1:1570% → 69%
IDHODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3427% → 25%
Q2 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
73.5%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Cutrell Haywood, broken up by Keyon BlankenbakerSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
74.8%
Cade Coffey punt for 52 yds , Austin Conway returns for 4 yds to the Wyom 32 WYOMING Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Wyom 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.5%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Jeff Cotton for 5 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+6
69.8%
Sean Chambers pass complete to John Okwoli for 6 yds to the Wyom 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+9
68.8%
Ryan Galovich punt for 49 yds , Cutrell Haywood returns for 9 yds to the Idaho 42 IDAHO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Idaho 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14FG15 plays · 66 yds · 6:4429% → 33%
Q3 10:54
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+15
71.2%
PETRINO, Mason pass incomplete to LEE, D.J., PENALTY WYO roughing passer 15 yards to the IDAHO31, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
70.6%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Nick Romano for 4 yds to the Idaho 35Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+20
70.8%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Jeff Cotton for 20 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
67.6%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Aundre Carter for 5 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
65.8%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 1 yd to the Wyom 26Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+15
66.1%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 15 yds to the Wyom 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 12
OPP 13
-7
66.2%
Mason Petrino sacked by Garrett Crall and Victor Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q3 4:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
64.0%
Ryan Galovich punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cutrell Haywood at the Idaho 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 16PUNT5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
WYODrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
63.6%
Ryan Galovich punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cutrell Haywood at the Idaho 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 18PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:1836% → 32%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-9
64.4%
Mason Petrino sacked by Josiah Hall for a loss of 9 yards to the Idaho 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 20
0
65.4%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Jeff Cotton, broken up by Logan WilsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Cade Coffey punt for 47 yds , Austin Conway returns for no gain to the Wyom 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0067% → 63%
Q4 14:22
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
63.0%
Ryan Galovich punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Cutrell Haywood at the Idaho 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 20PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
WYODrive 21TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22FG16 plays · 68 yds · 2:5615% → 31%
Q4 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
85.0%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Jeff Cotton, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
86.4%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Aundre Carter for 17 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 5
50
0
83.0%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Cutrell Haywood, broken up by Keyon BlankenbakerSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 5
50
+15
85.1%
WYOMING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
80.9%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 18 yds to the Wyom 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+12
80.4%
PETRINO, Mason pass incomplete to COTTON, Jeff, PENALTY WYO pass interference 12 yards to the WYO2, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
82.3%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Cutrell Haywood, broken up by Esaias GandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 7:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
81.0%
Ryan Galovich punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cutrell Haywood at the Idaho 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 24PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 1:3627% → 17%
Q4 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
73.4%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
67.0%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-15
69.1%
PETRINO, Mason pass incomplete to HAYWOOD, C., PENALTY IDAHO pass interference 15 yards to the WYO33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 24
OPP 33
-12
80.9%
Mason Petrino sacked by Solomon Byrd for a loss of 12 yards to the Wyom 45Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 36
OPP 45
0
83.4%
Cade Coffey punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25END OF GAME9 plays · 16 yds · 0:5188% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:16
Trey Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+24.2
FG · Q4 7:20
Cade Coffey 24 yd FG GOOD
-12.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:57
Timeout IDAHO, clock 03:57
+11.8