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TLSA

Tulsa 34 at San José State 16

SJSU
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:55 · Alex Galland punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense−5.5Pregame prior−8.7Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Carter for 8 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +4.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:31: Josh Love pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 23 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:50: Jacob Rainey 27 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +5.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:03: Jacob Rainey 28 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +4.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:21: T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +11.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at SJSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:59SJSU 4th & 5 at TLSA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:46SJSU 4th & 1 at TLSA 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:38TLSA 4th & 7 at SJSU 41, up 11
    Close callPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:50TLSA 4th & 10 at SJSU 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:24SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:55SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:12TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:51SJSU 4th & 6 at TLSA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:23TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.4%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:03TLSA 4th & 9 at SJSU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−8.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:57SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:21SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:37SJSU 4th & 20 at TLSA 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:48TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53TLSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:31SJSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:21TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:12TLSA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:37SJSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:1267% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
33.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
33.2%
Zach Smith run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
33.2%
BROOKS, S. rush up middle for no gain to the TLS41 (AGUAYO, Ethan), PENALTY SJSU substitution infraction 5 yards to the TLS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+1
33.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
33.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
33.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
33.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
33.2%
Zach Smith run for 6 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
33.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
33.2%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+21
33.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 21 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
33.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the SJSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
33.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the SJSt 9Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
32.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 3:4434% → 36%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
33.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 7 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+40
33.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 40 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
34.7%
DeJon Packer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+2
34.7%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+4
34.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
34.7%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
34.7%
Josh Love run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+15
34.3%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to GAITHER, Bailey (EVANS, A.), PENALTY TLS pass interference (EVANS, A.) 15 yards to the TLS4, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
34.7%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.7%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Akayleb EvansSimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
36.3%
Matt Mercurio 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0664% → 70%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
35.8%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
35.9%
Zach Smith run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+37
36.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 37 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
34.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
34.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+5
34.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
34.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-5
34.1%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 21Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+14
34.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 14 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
34.1%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 8Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
34.1%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
30.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Carter for 8 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
31.7%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+14
31.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 14 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
32.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
32.8%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
32.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
32.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 4 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-2
31.7%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:1771% → 72%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
29.2%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Denzel Carter) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+6
29.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+13
29.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
28.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
28.7%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+14
29.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 14 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
28.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
28.5%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
28.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
28.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:0029% → 39%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.6%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
28.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
28.0%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to CRUMP, Andre Jr, PENALTY TLS pass interference (JOHNSON, B.) 15 yards to the SJSU35, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
28.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
29.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Kairee RobinsonSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
28.6%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to BLACKWELL, JaQu, PENALTY TLS offside (ROBINSON, S.) 5 yards to the SJSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
29.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 5 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
29.7%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+30
29.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 30 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
30.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
39.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 23 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 3:4165% → 72%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
35.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 11 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
34.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+14
33.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
32.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the SJSt 32 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (Denzel Carter) to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 18
OPP 42
+10
33.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+9
32.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
32.5%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+12
33.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 12 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
33.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
32.5%
Keylon Stokes run for 1 yd to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
32.5%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
33.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos Santana, broken up by Jay LenardSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
28.2%
Jacob Rainey 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:2130% → 31%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
30.0%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+17
30.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 17 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
31.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+8
31.9%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 8 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-9
33.1%
Josh Love sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
31.1%
Alex Galland punt for 53 yds, downed at the Tulsa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
30.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+4
30.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
31.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 9 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+14
31.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 14 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
32.4%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jaxon Player) to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+3
33.9%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
34.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Isaiah Hamilton, broken up by Diamon CannonSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
33.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
32.0%
Alex Galland punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
29.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+17
28.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
27.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-5
27.5%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chris Paul) to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
27.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+1
28.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-5
29.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Dante Bivens) to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
29.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+27
30.6%
DeJon Packer run for 27 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
33.5%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 1 yd to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+7
33.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 7 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-4
34.1%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
30.7%
Alex Galland punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:2071% → 78%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
29.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
28.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
29.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 9 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+17
28.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 17 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
26.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
26.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for no gain to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+25
26.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 25 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
25.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
25.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-5
26.6%
TULSA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 12Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+1
26.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 1 yd to the SJSt 11Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
22.2%
Jacob Rainey 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
21.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-3
21.9%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
20.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
19.7%
Alex Galland punt for 48 yds, downed at the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2178% → 94%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
21.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
21.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+37
21.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Carter for 37 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
18.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 10 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
18.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Nehemiah SheltonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+14
18.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 14 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
18.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
18.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 3 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
8.7%
Josh Love run for 1 yd to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
8.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
8.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
8.3%
Alex Galland punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 2:2193% → 99%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
6.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
6.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 18 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
6.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
6.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
6.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 27 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
4.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 8 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
1.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18TD
22 plays · 74 yds · 7:262% → 2%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
1.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Billy Humphreys, broken up by Cooper EdmistonSimilar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
1.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 6 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+9
2.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 9 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
2.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
2.1%
Nick Nash run for 4 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
2.1%
Nick Nash pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
2.2%
TULSA Penalty, personal foul (Treyvon Reeves) to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
2.4%
NASH, Nick rush right for 7 yards to the TLS25 (BUNCH, M.;COLLINS, Z.), PENALTY SJSU holding (OSELAND, Quinn) 10 yards to the TLS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 20
OPP 42
0
2.1%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+17
2.1%
Nick Nash run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
1.2%
Nick Nash run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
1.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Tyler Stevens) to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+14
1.1%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 14 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 1
OPP 12
-2
1.1%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
1.1%
Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
1.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
1.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 2 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
0.9%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
0.8%
NASH, Nick pass complete to HAMILTON, Isaia for 5 yards to the TLS0, clock 02:44, PENALTY SJSU pass interference (BRADDOCK, Jerma) 15 yards to the TLS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
1.9%
Nick Nash run for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:322% → 1%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.8%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
1.8%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 15 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
1.9%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
0.9%
DeJon Packer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+10
0.8%
DeJon Packer run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 19 DeJon Packer fumbled, forced by T.K. Wilkerson, recovered by Tulsa Tyon DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 12
OWN 17
-2
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 14
OWN 15
-2
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:21
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q2 6:31
Josh Love pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 23 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q2 2:50
Jacob Rainey 27 yd FG GOOD
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com