Try the model
WYO

Wyoming 23 at Texas State 14

TXST
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreWYO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:11 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the TexSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior−11.2Home team on offense+3.5Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:15: Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 50 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +9.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:56: Sean Chambers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +13.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 63%).
  3. TD · Q3 8:36: Gresch Jensen pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Hall return for 72 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +14.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:36: Cooper Rothe kickoff for 63 yds , Jah'Marae Sheread return for 32 yds to the TexSt 34 — WYO win probability +7.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:19: Cooper Rothe 19 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +6.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 11:48WYO 4th & 5 at TXST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19TXST 4th & 8 at WYO 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:19WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:48TXST 4th & 8 at WYO 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59WYO 4th & 2 at TXST 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:15WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:32WYO 4th & 3 at TXST 40, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−1.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:44WYO 4th & 13 at TXST 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36TXST 4th & 28 at WYO 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−2.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:19WYO 4th & 2 at TXST 2, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−13.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:19TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 45, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:29WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 24, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:57TXST 4th & 15 at WYO 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:57WYO 4th & 4 at TXST 48, up 9
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:57TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:15TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:56WYO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:36WYO Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WYODrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1271% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
29.0%
Austin Conway run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+9
29.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for 9 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
29.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+2
29.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
29.0%
Titus Swen run for no gain to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
30.3%
Cooper Rothe 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5131% → 34%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
30.5%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+21
30.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 21 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
30.8%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 13 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
30.9%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+36
30.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 36 yds to the Wyom 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.8%
Trey Smith run for 7 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
32.6%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
32.7%
Trey Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 33Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+11
32.9%
Ryan Galovich punt for 41 yds , Hutch White returns for 11 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:3835% → 37%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
35.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+10
35.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 10 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
35.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
35.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 9 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
35.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 12 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
35.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wyom 20Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
35.4%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
35.2%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by C.J. ColdonSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
37.0%
Joshua Rowland 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
36.5%
Titus Swen run for 1 yd to the Wyom 33Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
36.6%
Sean Chambers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
37.0%
Sean Chambers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+25
37.2%
Ryan Galovich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TEXSTATE 27 WYOMING Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
39.1%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Mason Hays for 11 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
39.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 4 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
39.3%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-2
38.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 45Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
38.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:0861% → 62%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
39.0%
Sean Chambers pass complete to John Okwoli for 5 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
38.7%
Xazavian Valladay run for 4 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
39.0%
Sean Chambers run for 6 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.7%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Kordell RodgersSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
38.9%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+25
40.8%
Sean Chambers run for 25 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
39.3%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 7 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
38.4%
Sean Chambers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
39.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+47
38.0%
Cooper Rothe 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4439% → 50%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.9%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
38.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 11 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
39.1%
Gresch Jensen run for 9 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+6
40.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
50
+50
49.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 50 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
47.5%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
47.5%
CHAMBERS, Sean pass incomplete to ISMAIL JR, R. (Taylor,AnthonyJ), PENALTY TXST pass interference (Taylor,AnthonyJ) 15 yards to the WYO40, 1ST DOWN WYO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
46.5%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
46.3%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+2
46.3%
Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
47.0%
Ryan Galovich punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0052% → 53%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
52.1%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+14
51.8%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 14 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
52.2%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 8 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+11
53.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 11 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
53.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wyom 47Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
53.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+27
52.6%
Gresch Jensen pass intercepted Braden Smith return for 27 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5847% → 58%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
53.5%
Austin Conway run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Frankie Griffin) to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
52.2%
Titus Swen run for 7 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+1
52.2%
Titus Swen run for 1 yd to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+5
53.2%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
52.2%
Trey Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
42.4%
Sean Chambers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0048% → 50%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
47.9%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+31
47.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 31 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
50.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for no gain to the Wyom 41Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-12
50.1%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Mario Mora for a loss of 12 yards to the TexSt 47 Gresch Jensen fumbled, recovered by Wyom Mario Mora , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1856% → 51%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
44.5%
Sean Chambers run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
43.9%
Sean Chambers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
44.2%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to Xazavian ValladaySimilar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
48.8%
Ryan Galovich punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1549% → 48%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
49.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
49.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+2
48.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
47.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
47.7%
WYOMING Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 15
50
-45
50.5%
Sean Chambers pass intercepted, touchback. Anthony J. Taylor return for no gain to the 50 yard line WYOMING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (John Okwoli)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
48.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
50.2%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Seth Caillouet, broken up by Braden SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-1
48.9%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Victor Jones and Cassh Maluia for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+7
47.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 38 , Austin Conway returns for 7 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:5652% → 51%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
47.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the Wyom 39Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
47.6%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to Raghib Ismail Jr.Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+44
48.7%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Gunner Gentry for 44 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
43.8%
WYOMING Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+3
44.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
44.2%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to Raghib Ismail Jr.Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 12
OPP 19
-1
46.3%
Sean Chambers sacked by Kumonde Hines and Nico Ezidore for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
49.0%
Cooper Rothe 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18INT TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:0849% → 37%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.1%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
48.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 16 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
51.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
50.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 7 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+13
51.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 13 yds to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+72
36.5%
Gresch Jensen pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Hall return for 72 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
33.0%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 12 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
35.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Mason Hays for 14 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
36.5%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
36.3%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+12
35.2%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 12 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
38.0%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Cole Godbout for a loss of 10 yards to the Wyom 38 TEXAS STATE Penalty, intentional grounding (Clifton Lewis Jr.) to the Wyom 38Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+6
34.6%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 14
OPP 32
-9
33.9%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Mario Mora and Garrett Crall for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 41Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 23
OPP 41
-5
31.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jarron Morris) to the Wyom 46Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 28
OPP 46
0
31.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20FG
18 plays · 88 yds · 9:1271% → 83%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
28.9%
Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the Wyom 14Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
29.0%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Austin Conway for 5 yds to the Wyom 19Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
28.9%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
28.7%
Titus Swen run for 2 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
28.2%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Austin Conway for 5 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+3
27.9%
Sean Chambers run for 3 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
27.4%
Xazavian Valladay run for 7 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
26.0%
Titus Swen run for 4 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
24.5%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Josh Harshman for 14 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
23.9%
Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
23.7%
Titus Swen run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+9
24.0%
Titus Swen run for 9 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
23.3%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+22
23.3%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 22 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
23.3%
Trey Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
23.3%
Sean Chambers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
24.1%
Sean Chambers run for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
17.4%
Cooper Rothe 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.8%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
17.5%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Mason Hays, broken up by C.J. ColdonSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
16.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 10 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
19.0%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
18.5%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
17.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
16.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 47 yds, downed at the Wyom 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
17.3%
Titus Swen run for 2 yds to the Wyom 10Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
17.4%
Titus Swen run for 7 yds to the Wyom 17Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
18.0%
Titus Swen run for 2 yds to the Wyom 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
16.9%
Titus Swen run for 5 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-1
16.5%
Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 23Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+1
17.7%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Austin Conway for 1 yd to the Wyom 24Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
17.7%
Ryan Galovich punt for 47 yds, downed at the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:3514% → 8%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
13.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 11 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
14.8%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
15.1%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+16
13.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 16 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
16.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 10 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
18.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 10 yards to the Wyom 41 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+5
14.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 15
OPP 36
0
13.9%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 15
OPP 36
+53
8.4%
Joshua Rowland 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
7.4%
Trey Smith run for 10 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
7.0%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
7.1%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
7.0%
Austin Conway run for no gain to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
7.3%
Ryan Galovich punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:266% → 9%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-11
5.9%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Garrett Crall for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 21
OWN 8
+16
5.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 16 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+7
5.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 7 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
6.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 15 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
7.0%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 24 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
9.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+24
8.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 18 yds to the Wyom 12 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Hall) to the Wyom 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
9.1%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:36
Gresch Jensen pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Hall return for 72 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q2 2:56
Sean Chambers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q2 11:15
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 50 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com