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WIU

Western Illinois 13 at Colorado State 38

CSU
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreWIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:41 · Adam Fellner punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense+33.1Pregame prior+9.5Score differential+28.8Garbage-time factor+9.3Blowout margin+14.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 8:52: Nathan Erickson 32 yd FG GOOD — WIU win probability +0.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: WIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:53: Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 77 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK) — CSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:43: Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 10 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK) — CSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:27: Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK) — CSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:45: Dante Wright run for 33 yds for a TD, (Braxton Davis KICK) — CSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WIU made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 14:50WIU 4th & 10 at WIU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52WIU 4th & 10 at CSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:53WIU 4th & 10 at WIU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:18CSU 4th & 20 at WIU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53WIU 4th & 6 at CSU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:43WIU 4th & 5 at WIU 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16WIU 4th & 21 at WIU 42, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:32CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 12, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:57WIU 4th & 15 at WIU 45, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00WIU 4th & 6 at CSU 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:22CSU 4th & 4 at WIU 25, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:41WIU 4th & 5 at CSU 33, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:41WIU 4th & 25 at CSU 43, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:28CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 14, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00WIU 4th & 1 at CSU 40, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:12CSU 4th & 2 at WIU 22, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:52CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 21, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:25WIU 4th & 6 at WIU 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WIU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 14:50CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:53CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:43CSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:27CSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:45CSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:52WIU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
78.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 75 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.9%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Dennis Houston for 5 yds to the WIll 30Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
78.9%
Kendon Walker run for 2 yds to the WIll 32Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
78.9%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Tony Tate for 12 yds to the WIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
78.9%
Tony Tate run for 7 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-7
78.9%
Connor Sampson sacked by Toby McBride for a loss of 7 yards to the WIll 44Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
78.9%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Eric Carrera, broken up by Anthony HawkinsSimilar
Q1 14:50
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+2
78.9%
Adam Fellner punt for 47 yds , Dante Wright returns for 2 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
78.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+8
78.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 8 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
78.9%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 25 Marcus McElroy fumbled, forced by Greg Benton Jr., recovered by WIll Demetri RoyerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:4322% → 22%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
78.3%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Clint RatkovichSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
78.4%
Tony Tate run for 10 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.3%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for no gain to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
78.3%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Dennis HoustonSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
78.5%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Tony TateSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
78.1%
Nathan Erickson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5478% → 80%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
77.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
77.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+77
79.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 77 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
79.9%
Connor Sampson sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek and Ellison Hubbard for a loss of 7 yards to the WIll 18Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
80.0%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete, broken up by Damion DickensSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
80.1%
Kendon Walker run for 7 yds to the WIll 25Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.2%
Adam Fellner punt for 52 yds , Dante Wright returns for 11 yds to the ColSt 34 Dante Wright fumbled, forced by Justin Hall,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 35 yds · 4:0880% → 80%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
79.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 5 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+8
80.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
80.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Trey McBride) to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
79.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
79.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
80.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
80.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 24 yds to the WIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
80.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 13 yds to the WIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
80.4%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 0
-12
79.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 3 yds to the WIll 18 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Joctavis Phillips) to the WIll 46Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 35
OPP 46
+7
80.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 7 yds to the WIll 39Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 28
OPP 39
+8
80.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Christian Hunter for 8 yds to the WIll 31Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 20
OPP 31
+49
79.8%
Max Poduska 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:2520% → 21%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
80.2%
Tony Tate run for 4 yds to the WIll 35Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+34
80.0%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Dennis Houston for 34 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
79.2%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
79.8%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Dennis HoustonSimilar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+9
79.9%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Gabe Angel for 9 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
79.4%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Eric CarreraSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
79.3%
Nathan Erickson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:1080% → 86%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
79.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 8 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
80.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
80.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 11 yds to the WIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
80.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
80.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 8 yds to the WIll 35Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
80.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 3 yds to the WIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
80.6%
KINSEY JR, Marvin rush for 4 yards to the WIU28 (Demetri Royer), PENALTY CSU holding (TAYLOR, Jeff) 10 yards to the WIU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+5
80.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the WIll 37Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+6
80.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the WIll 31Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+14
79.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 14 yds to the WIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
80.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 7 yds to the WIll 10Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
85.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 10 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.4%
Clint Ratkovich run for 6 yds to the WIll 31Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
84.1%
Tony Tate run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIll 28Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
84.6%
Connor Sampson pass complete to George Wahee for 2 yds to the WIll 30Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+20
84.7%
Adam Fellner punt for 42 yds , Dante Wright returns for 20 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:3186% → 94%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+40
85.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 40 yds to the WIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
85.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIll 14Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+14
94.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
94.2%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-10
94.1%
McELROY, Marcus rush for 9 yards to the WIU44 (Ziare Williams;Cole Watts), PENALTY CSU holding (BUTLER, Cameron) 10 yards to the CSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+10
94.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 10 yds Warren Jackson fumbled, forced by Mike Viti, recovered by WIll Zach GlisanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-13
92.1%
Connor Sampson sacked by Keevan Bailey for a loss of 13 yards to the COLOST 40 WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, intentional grounding (Connor Sampson) to the WIll 40Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 23
OWN 40
+7
92.7%
Clint Ratkovich run for 7 yds to the WIll 47Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 16
OWN 47
-5
92.8%
Connor Sampson sacked by Toby McBride for a loss of 5 yards to the WIll 42Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 21
OWN 42
0
92.8%
Adam Fellner punt for 52 yds, downed at the ColSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5395% → 95%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
94.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+4
94.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+1
95.4%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
95.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:285% → 4%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
50
-8
95.4%
Connor Sampson sacked by Ellison Hubbard for a loss of 8 yards to the WIll 42Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+3
96.1%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Eric Carrera for 3 yds to the WIll 45Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
96.0%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Tony TateSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 15
OWN 45
+2
96.0%
Adam Fellner punt for 49 yds , Dante Wright returns for 2 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:4396% → 96%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
96.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 16 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
96.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 6 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-5
96.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
96.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+9
95.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 9 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
95.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Ziare WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+16
95.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jadon Walker for 16 yds to the WIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+61
96.0%
Braxton Davis 61 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.1%
Kendon Walker run for 1 yd to the WIll 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
94.1%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for no gain to the WIll 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
94.1%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Dennis Houston for 9 yds to the WIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.8%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 6 yds to the WIll 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
93.5%
Kendon Walker run for 1 yd to the WIll 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+14
93.7%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Clint Ratkovich, QB hurry by BATES, Jalen, PENALTY CSU roughing passer (HUBBARD, Ellison) 14 yards to the CSU44, 1ST DOWN WIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
93.5%
Kendon Walker run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-1
93.5%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Kendon Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+2
93.7%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Dennis Houston for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-11
93.8%
Connor Sampson sacked by Ellison Hubbard for a loss of 11 yards to the COLOST 49 WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, intentional grounding (Connor Sampson) to the WIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:3096% → 99%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
96.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 3 yds to the WIll 46Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
96.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the WIll 41Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+8
96.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 8 yds to the WIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
99.4%
Dante Wright run for 33 yds for a TD, (Braxton Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.3%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Dennis HoustonSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
99.3%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Brandon Malkow) to the WIll 31Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 15
OWN 31
-2
99.3%
Connor Sampson sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek for a loss of 2 yards to the WIll 31 Connor Sampson fumbled, recovered by ColSt Jan-Phillip Bombek , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.5%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd to the WIll 30Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
99.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the WIll 28Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+3
99.5%
Collin Hill run for 3 yds to the WIll 25Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
99.6%
Max Poduska 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 21PUNT
17 plays · 31 yds · 2:411% → 0%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.5%
Kendon Walker run for 4 yds to the WIll 30Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+15
99.4%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Tony Tate (CROSSLEY, Brandon), PENALTY CSU pass interference (CROSSLEY, Brandon) 15 yards to the WIU45, 1ST DOWN WIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
99.4%
Kendon Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 44Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+3
99.4%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Gabe Angel for 3 yds to the WIll 47Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+15
99.4%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 15 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.4%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Jared DrakeSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.7%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+3
99.7%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Tony Tate for 3 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+5
99.5%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Eric Carrera for 5 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.6%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Kendon WalkerSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.6%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Jared Drake) to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 15
OPP 33
-5
99.6%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Gabe Angel) to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 20
OPP 38
0
99.7%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Clint RatkovichSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 20
OPP 38
0
99.7%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Eric CarreraSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 20
OPP 38
-5
99.7%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 25
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Adam Fellner punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
99.8%
Collin Hill run for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 14 Collin Hill fumbled,Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 16
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Christian Hunter run for no gain to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the WIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Dennis Houston, broken up by Devin PhillipsSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 9 yds to the WIll 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
99.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.8%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Tony Tate for 4 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
99.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
99.8%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Jared Drake run for no gain to the ColSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:32100% → 100%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 18 yds to the WIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the WIll 39Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the WIll 38Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+8
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 8 yds to the WIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the WIll 25Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Christian Hunter run for 3 yds to the WIll 22Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the WIll 22Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+41
99.9%
Braxton Davis 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.9%
Kendon Walker run for 6 yds to the WIll 21Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Eric Carrera for 4 yds to the WIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Gabe Angel for 7 yds to the WIll 32Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+42
99.9%
Kendon Walker run for 42 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.6%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Tony Tate for 26 yds for a TD, (Nathan Erickson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Christian Hunter run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Christian Hunter run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
99.8%
Justice McCoy sacked by Malik Burns and Kyle Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+7
99.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds , Justin Hall returns for 7 yds to the WIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the WIll 34Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
99.8%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Jared Drake for 1 yd to the WIll 35Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Dennis HoustonSimilar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 6
OWN 35
-3
99.8%
Adam Fellner punt for 41 yds , Marshaun Cameron returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 62 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+29
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
50
+11
99.9%
Justice McCoy run for 11 yds to the WIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 10 yds to the WIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the WIll 25Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+8
99.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 8 yds to the WIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:27
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 8:43
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 10 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q3 8:45
Dante Wright run for 33 yds for a TD, (Braxton Davis KICK)
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com