Try the model
SHSU

Sam Houston 31 at New Mexico 39

UNM
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:50 · Tyson Dyer punt for 58 yds , Ke'Shon Murray returns for 6 yds to the SmHou 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+10.7Home team on offense+5.6Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:19: Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Shelley PAT MISSED) — UNM win probability +6.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:40: Eric Schmid pass complete to Toneil Carter for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Crow KICK) — SHSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:02: Sheriron Jones run for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +14.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:41: Sheriron Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +10.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:01: Donovan Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ty Brock pass to Woody Brandom for Two-Point Conversion) — SHSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 11 of 13SHSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:20SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:34UNM 4th & 9 at SHSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:34SHSU 4th & 6 at SHSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:05UNM 4th & 12 at SHSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:50SHSU 4th & 13 at SHSU 10, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:57UNM 4th & 10 at SHSU 10, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:56UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:05UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:17SHSU 4th & 16 at SHSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:19SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:26UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 11, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:59SHSU 4th & 10 at UNM 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:50UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:35UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 36, down 1
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:00SHSU 4th & 15 at SHSU 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−3.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 9:38UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 37, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 8:06SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−2.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  19. Q3 5:12UNM 4th & 8 at SHSU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−11.7
    average punt
  20. Q3 5:12SHSU 4th & 8 at UNM 32, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−1.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 15:00SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 13:41SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 33, down 16
    Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 12:02UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 39, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  24. Q4 10:19SHSU 4th & 7 at UNM 48, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%
    average punt
  25. Q4 9:09UNM 4th & 7 at SHSU 49, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  26. Q4 5:45SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 34, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.3
    average punt
  27. Q4 1:22SHSU 4th & 15 at UNM 27, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SHSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 1:57UNM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:56SHSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:21SHSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:19UNM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:40SHSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:02UNM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:41UNM Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:01SHSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.8%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.7%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Marcus Williams for 10 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
70.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
70.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+1
70.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
70.7%
Brandt Hughes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
70.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
70.4%
Kyran Jackson run for 5 yds to the SmHou 27Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
70.4%
Kyran Jackson run for 1 yd to the SmHou 28Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+4
70.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Dee Bowens for 4 yds to the SmHou 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
70.4%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Dee Bowens for 8 yds to the SmHou 40Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
70.3%
Eric Schmid pass incomplete to Nathan StewartSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
70.3%
Kyran Jackson run for 1 yd to the SmHou 41Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
70.4%
Matt McRobert punt for 47 yds , De'John Rogers returns for no gain to the NMex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:5570% → 70%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
69.9%
Elijah Lilly run for 1 yd to the NMex 13Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
69.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+51
69.8%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Ahmari Davis for 51 yds to the SmHou 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
70.6%
HUGHES, Brandt pass incomplete to UMEH, Anselem, PENALTY NM holding (WILLIAMS, Marcu) 10 yards to the SHSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 20
OPP 43
0
70.3%
Brandt Hughes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+15
70.2%
HUGHES, Brandt pass incomplete to DRENNAN, Q, PENALTY SHSU pass interference (McCollum, Trist) 15 yards to the SHSU28, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
70.6%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Elijah Lilly, broken up by Craig Williams Jr.Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
70.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the SmHou 27Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
70.4%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
70.2%
Andrew Shelley 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
70.3%
Schmid, Eric pass incomplete to 8Z, PENALTY NM pass interference (81) 14 yards to the SHSU39, 1ST DOWN SHSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
69.9%
Kyran Jackson run for 4 yds to the SmHou 43Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
69.7%
Kyran Jackson run for no gain to the SmHou 43Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
69.9%
Eric Schmid pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
70.3%
Matt McRobert punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:1670% → 72%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
69.9%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 11 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.0%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Evrin HawkinsSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
69.9%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 9 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+15
70.2%
SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SmHou 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
70.7%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 25 yds to the SmHou 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
70.9%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IVSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
70.9%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-2
70.6%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Elijah Lilly for a loss of 2 yards to the SmHou 24Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+41
71.5%
Andrew Shelley 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1029% → 27%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
71.3%
Kyran Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the SmHou 9 Kyran Jackson fumbled, recovered by SmHou Ty BrockSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+1
71.5%
Toneil Carter run for 1 yd to the SmHou 10Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
71.8%
Ty Brock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+9
72.7%
Matt McRobert punt for 46 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 9 yds to the SmHou 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:4173% → 79%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
73.1%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the SmHou 43Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+43
78.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
77.1%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 10 yds to the SmHou 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
76.7%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 20 yds to the SmHou 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
76.5%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 9 yds to the SmHou 47Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
75.8%
Donovan Williams run for no gain to the SmHou 47Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
75.9%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Coree Compton for 3 yds Coree Compton fumbled, forced by De'John Rogers, recovered by NMex Trent Sellers , return for 5 yds to the SmHou 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:3480% → 80%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
79.5%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 36 yds to the SmHou 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.6%
Brandt Hughes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.6%
Brandt Hughes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.2%
Brandt Hughes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
79.7%
Andrew Shelley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0122% → 25%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.1%
Ty Brock pass complete to Nathan Stewart for 5 yds to the SmHou 30Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
77.9%
Kyran Jackson run for 2 yds to the SmHou 32Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
78.0%
Kyran Jackson run for 5 yds to the SmHou 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
78.0%
SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SmHou 32Similar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
78.2%
Kyran Jackson run for 3 yds to the SmHou 35Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+65
75.2%
Ty Brock pass complete to Dee Bowens for 65 yds for a TD, (Connor Crow PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.6%
Jay Griffin IV run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
74.7%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete, broken up by Danzell SimsSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
74.1%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Dwayne WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
73.6%
Tyson Dyer punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ke'Shon Murray at the SmHou 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:4425% → 34%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
75.2%
Eric Schmid run for no gain to the SmHou 21Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
75.3%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 11 yds to the SmHou 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
74.9%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
50
0
73.9%
Ryan Humphries pass incomplete to Dee BowensSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
50
+20
74.3%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 20 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
73.4%
Eric Schmid pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+19
73.4%
Alex Williams run for 19 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
73.2%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Coree Compton for 7 yds to the NMex 4Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
66.5%
Eric Schmid run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Crow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
69.2%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 11Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+9
69.1%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Q' Drennan for 9 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-1
68.6%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Elijah Lilly for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 19Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
68.0%
Tyson Dyer punt for 46 yds, downed at the SmHou 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
68.9%
Brock, Ty pass incomplete to Williams, Donov, PENALTY SHSU holding (Edwards, Tyler) 10 yards to the SHSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+5
69.6%
Donovan Williams run for 5 yds to the SmHou 30Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+4
69.5%
Ty Brock pass complete to Dee Bowens for 4 yds to the SmHou 34Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-5
70.0%
Ty Brock sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 5 yards to the SmHou 29Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
70.9%
Matt McRobert punt for 60 yds, downed at the NMex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 1:5770% → 80%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
69.7%
Brandt Hughes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
69.5%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IVSimilar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+15
68.8%
HUGHES, Brandt pass incomplete to UMEH, Anselem, PENALTY SHSU pass interference (Thomas, Jaylen) 15 yards to the NM26, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
70.0%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Anu Somoye for 5 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+29
70.2%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Anu Somoye for 29 yds to the SmHou 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
72.0%
Brandt Hughes pass complete to Marcus Williams for 36 yds to the SmHou 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
72.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the SmHou 2 for a 1ST down SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, personal foul (Danzell Sims) to the SmHou 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Shelley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.9%
Eric Schmid pass incomplete to Nathan StewartSimilar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Eric Schmid run for no gain to the SmHou 25Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
77.6%
Eric Schmid pass incomplete to Nathan StewartSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+60
78.1%
Matt McRobert punt for 50 yds, downed at the NEWMEXICO 25 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
78.2%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Marcus Williams, broken up by Danzell SimsSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
78.0%
Javohn Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-5
77.4%
Brandt Hughes run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 11Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
76.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ke'Shon Murray at the SmHou 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:2624% → 26%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
75.6%
Ty Brock pass complete to Dee Bowens for 24 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
73.6%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Nathan Stewart, broken up by Letayveon BeatonSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
73.8%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Nathan StewartSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
75.0%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Coree ComptonSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
74.0%
Connor Crow 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
75.6%
Daevon Vigilant run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
75.2%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Aaron MolinaSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
74.5%
Brandt Hughes pass incomplete to Marcus Williams, broken up by Erick FowlerSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+6
73.6%
Tyson Dyer punt for 58 yds , Ke'Shon Murray returns for 6 yds to the SmHou 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
74.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SmHou 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2028% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
72.1%
Schmid, Eric rush for 18 yards to the SHSU43, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SHSU holding (Moore, Josh) 10 yards to the SHSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
72.2%
Eric Schmid pass incomplete to Coree ComptonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+23
72.5%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Nathan Stewart for 23 yds to the SmHou 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
71.0%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Nathan Stewart for 4 yds to the SmHou 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-5
69.8%
SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, false start (Bryce Wilds) to the SmHou 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+20
71.7%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Brennon Tibbs for 20 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
69.3%
Kyran Jackson run for 12 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
68.1%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Brennon Tibbs for 18 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
54.4%
Eric Schmid pass complete to Toneil Carter for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Crow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
60.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
60.6%
Sheriron Jones run for 7 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
61.8%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 36Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
59.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ke'Shon Murray at the SmHou 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.3%
SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, false start (Bryce Wilds) to the SmHou 20Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
58.6%
Ty Brock pass complete to Dee Bowens for 4 yds to the SmHou 24Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-4
58.6%
Ty Brock sacked by Adebayo Soremekun for a loss of 4 yards to the SmHou 20Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
60.0%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Alex WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+5
61.1%
Matt McRobert punt for 47 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 5 yds to the NMex 25 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal block (Jerrick Reed II) to the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
59.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
59.8%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+7
58.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Ahmari Davis for 7 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+3
58.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 46 yds , Ryan Humphries returns for 3 yds to the SmHou 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.3%
Toneil Carter run for 1 yd to the SmHou 21Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
57.6%
Eric Schmid pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
58.9%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Woody BrandomSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+10
60.3%
Matt McRobert punt for 49 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 10 yds to the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:1562% → 68%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
61.9%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Q' DrennanSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+28
60.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Anu Somoye for 28 yds to the SmHou 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
64.5%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Aaron Molina for 17 yds to the SmHou 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
64.5%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Aaron Molina for 12 yds to the SmHou 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
64.6%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SmHou 6Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
64.5%
Sheriron Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SmHou 8Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
62.8%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Aaron Molina, broken up by Zyon McCollumSimilar
Q3 5:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
68.2%
Andrew Shelley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.8%
Ty Brock pass complete to Nathan Stewart for 6 yds to the SmHou 31Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
64.3%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Coree ComptonSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
65.9%
Ty Brock pass complete to Brennon Tibbs for 9 yds to the SmHou 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
63.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Nathan Stewart for 6 yds to the SmHou 46Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
62.5%
Kyran Jackson run for 3 yds to the SmHou 49Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
62.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 2 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
61.8%
Ty Brock pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 15 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
60.5%
Kyran Jackson run for 2 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
60.5%
Ty Brock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
62.3%
Ty Brock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
65.0%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Brennon TibbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:5967% → 86%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
66.6%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+47
66.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jordan Kress for 47 yds to the SmHou 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
71.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 10 yds to the SmHou 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
85.9%
Sheriron Jones run for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0217% → 16%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Ife AdeyiSimilar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.9%
Eric Schmid run for 4 yds to the SmHou 29Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
82.7%
Schmid, Eric pass complete to Williams, Alex for 69 yards to the NM2, PENALTY SHSU holding (Melton, Luke) 10 yards to the SHSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+9
84.3%
Eric Schmid run for 9 yds to the SmHou 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+23
84.4%
Matt McRobert punt for 44 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 23 yds to the NEWMEXICO 49 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal block (Bobby Cole) to the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 30TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:2385% → 95%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+53
84.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 53 yds to the SmHou 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.1%
Sheriron Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.0%
Ty Brock pass complete to Alex Williams for 3 yds to the SmHou 28Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
91.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Dee Bowens for 2 yds to the SmHou 30Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
91.5%
Ty Brock pass complete to Dee Bowens for 3 yds to the SmHou 33Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
91.6%
Matt McRobert punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
95.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Aaron Molina for 11 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.0%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-14
95.9%
Javohn Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 45 NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Teton Saltes) to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 24
OWN 30
+9
95.3%
Javohn Jones run for 9 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
95.1%
Tyson Dyer punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SmHou 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 33DOWNS
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+16
94.5%
Ty Brock pass complete to Dee Bowens for 16 yds to the SmHou 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+31
94.2%
Kyran Jackson run for 31 yds to the SmHou 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.3%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Coree ComptonSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
93.3%
SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SmHou 44Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+8
94.1%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kyran Jackson for 8 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
93.4%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Kyran Jackson, broken up by Dylan HortonSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
93.6%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Nathan StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 34PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
96.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
50
+1
96.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the SmHou 49Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
96.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IVSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
95.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ke'Shon Murray at the SmHou 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 35TD
15 plays · 86 yds · 4:395% → 16%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
94.9%
Donovan Williams run for 4 yds to the SmHou 18Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
94.9%
Ty Brock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
95.0%
Ty Brock pass complete to Donovan Williams for 5 yds to the SmHou 23Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+5
95.0%
Carter, Toneil rush for 1 yard to the SHSU24 (BEILMAN, Erik;WILKINSON, Reec), PENALTY NM IP 5 yards to the SHSU28, 1ST DOWN SHSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Dee BowensSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
94.9%
Ty Brock run for 1 yd to the SmHou 29Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+5
96.4%
Kyran Jackson run for 5 yds to the SmHou 34Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+27
96.3%
Ty Brock pass complete to Nathan Stewart for 27 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
95.9%
Ty Brock pass complete to Coree Compton for 3 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+15
95.7%
Ty Brock pass complete to Coree Compton for 15 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
95.1%
Donovan Williams run for 14 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
95.1%
Donovan Williams run for 3 yds to the NMex 4Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.1%
Donovan Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ty Brock pass to Woody Brandom for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 36DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3812% → 7%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+32
87.6%
Ty Brock pass complete to Woody Brandom for 32 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
84.1%
Kyran Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 14
OPP 26
0
86.3%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Woody BrandomSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-1
88.0%
Dee Bowens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 15
OPP 27
-8
93.5%
Ty Brock sacked by Jacobi Hearn for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 37END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0297% → 97%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 33Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:02
Sheriron Jones run for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q3 12:40
Eric Schmid pass complete to Toneil Carter for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Crow KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q4 3:01
Donovan Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ty Brock pass to Woody Brandom for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com